verified events report
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Background and Context
15-21 December: Situation Debrief
In the Gaza Strip, heavy clashes continued between Palestinian armed militant groups, including Hamas, and the Israel Defence Force (IDF) across multiples areas, particularly in Khan Younis in the south, and Shejaiya, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia (Gaza city) in the north. On 19 December, seven IDF casualties were reported during a fight with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants. Three Israeli hostages were mistakenly killed on 15 December by IDF soldiers in Shejaiya. The IDF continued to launch intense air and artillery strikes on northern and southern areas of Gaza, including Jabalia refugee camp, where 13 people were killed and 75 wounded on 19 December. In Israel, Hamas and Hizbullah continued to fire rocket barrages at town and cities in the Southern, Northern, and Tel Aviv districts.
In the West Bank, the IDF continued to conduct raids to arrest suspected militants in numerous areas including Hebron, Nablus, Tulkarem, Jenin, Yatta, Husan, and Dura, killing at least 23 Palestinians. On 17 December, an Israeli airstrike in the Nur Shams refugee camp killed at least four Palestinians whom the IDF alleged were "wanted terrorists". Near Beit Einoun on 20 December, Israeli soldiers shot dead a Palestinian man in a car after he attempted to ram them with his vehicle.
Skirmishes between Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah and the IDF intensified along the Lebanon-Israel border. Hizbullah continued to fire mortars, missiles, and rockets on Israel’s Northern District, including Dovev, where two people were wounded in a missile attack on 21 December. On 17 December, Hizbullah militants claimed to have attacked IDF barracks with guided missiles in Hanita, Northern district; casualties were reported but not confirmed.
Yemen-based rebel Houthi movement continued to target commercial vessels they deem connected with Israel in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait. A total of five commercial vessels were targeted between 15 and 18 December but only material damages were reported. In the Red Sea, a US warship on 16 December shot down 14 drones launched from the Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.
On 20 December, the Hamas-run health ministry stated the death toll in Gaza has reached over 20,000, while in the West Bank Palestinian health authorities placed the death toll at over 300. Between 17-20 December, almost 600 trucks of humanitarian aid entered Gaza through the Rafah border crossing and the newly-opened Kerem Shalom border crossing.
A UN Security Council resolution calling for an urgent suspension of hostilities and increased aid to Gaza was postponed three times during the past week as the US and other security council members negotiated over the resolution's wording regarding a cessation of hostilities. The delayed vote is due to take place today (21 December).
In Egypt, the US said "very serious" negotiations were taking place on a new Gaza ceasefire and the release of more Israeli hostages. As of 21 December, both senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders are in Egypt for negotiations. Israeli officials have stated that they will only negotiate on a temporary ceasefire, while Hamas officials have declared they are seeking a permanent end to the fighting.
Immediate Security and Operational Risks
Ben Gurion International Airport remains operational, though there are regular delays and cancellations. Many airlines have ceased operations to the airport, though airspace remains open.
Residents in Israel are advised to shelter in place and closely monitor authorities’ rocket warnings and take shelter as required. On 20 December, the IDF ordered the immediate evacuation of Palestinian residents from an area covering roughly 20% of central and southern Khan Younis, amid the expanded IDF operations into the southern parts of the Gaza strip.
As of 17 December, humanitarian aid trucks have been entering the Gaza Strip through Israel's Kerem Shalom border crossing. The Rafah border crossing with Egypt also remains open to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the evacuation of foreign nationals, and a limited number of wounded Palestinian civilians. On 19 December, 548 foreign or dual nationals and 55 injured were evacuated through the Rafah crossing from Gaza to Egypt.
The evacuation rating for the Palestinian Territories remains NON-ESSENTIAL EVACUATION and the terrorism risk rating is HIGH. The security risk rating in Israel is MEDIUM, and HIGH in Sderot and the Western Negev. The evacuation rating for Lebanon is currently NON-ESSENTIAL EVACUATION.
Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggers alerts that notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
Verified Events on 9-10 January
The Seerist intelligence team has verified over 2,700 events across Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and southern Lebanon since the start of the conflict on 7 October 2023. A selection of events from the past 24 hours includes:
10 January
In Rafah, the Gaza Strip, four people were killed in an Israeli strike on agricultural land in the area.
In Kafr Kila, Nabatieh governorate, Israeli artillery shelling targeted a residence in the area; one civilian was killed.
In Jalbun, the West Bank, Israeli forces clashed with Palestinians during an IDF raid.
In Ya'bad, Jenin, the West Bank, Israeli forces clashed with Palestinians during an IDF raid.
In Aboud, Ramallah and al-Bireh, the West Bank, Israeli forces clashed with the Palestinians during an IDF raid; three Palestinians were injured.
Near Arab al-Aramshe, Northern district, air raid sirens were activated amid reports of rocket fire; all three landed in open areas.
In the vicinity of Beit Lif, Nabatieh governorate, Israeli security forces targeted a residence in the area with airstrikes.
In Deir Al-Balah, the Gaza Strip, Israeli artillery shelling on a house near Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital left at least 40 people killed and injured, according to Palestinian media.
In Ramallah, hundreds of Palestinians marched in the streets to protest US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit; the protesters were dispersed by police.
Heatmap of all Verified Events in Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and Lebanon on 10 January – Source: Seerist
Last Updated: 10 January 2024
Most Likely Conflict Scenario: Four-week outlook
More than three months into the Israel-Hamas conflict, experts at Seerist’s strategic partner, Control Risks, consider what developments are likely to take place over the coming weeks. The most likely conflict scenario includes a sustained siege on Gaza, airstrikes, and targeted ground operations in the Palestinian Territories.
Source: Control Risks and Seerist
Source: Verified Events corroborated and geolocated by Seerist's team of subject matter experts
Gaza Pulse Score – 21 December
Lebanon Pulse Score – 21 December
Israel Pulse Score – 21 December
Source: Control Risks
What We're Watching – 10 January 2024
Mitigate Immediate Risks with Real-Time Monitoring
Hotspots AI
Events AI
Emotions AI
Hotspots AI identifies anomalous activity and alerts users when there is an uptick in activity.
Events AI extracts information from news and social media sources based on keywords and/or event categories related to the conflict.
Emotions AI captures real-time sentiments related to the conflict with varied reactions observed across countries bordering Israel and the Palestinian Territories.
15 hotspots were triggered over the past 24 hours as conflict continues in Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria.
Jordan
Syria
Egypt
Lebanon
9 January
In the Tel al-Sultan area, Rafah, the Gaza Strip, an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building, killing at least one person and wounding several others.
In Rafah, the Gaza Strip, 15 people were killed and dozens injured in an Israeli airstrike on a house.
In Al-Zawiya, the West Bank, clashes broke out between Palestinians and IDF troops during an Israeli raid.
In the Al-Zaytoun area, Gaza City, the Gaza Strip, Hamas militants targeted Israeli security forces with mortar shelling and exchanged gunfire.
In Khan Younis, the Gaza Strip, heavy gunfire clashes were reported between Hamas fighters and IDF soldiers; two Hamas militants were killed and seven Israeli soldiers wounded.
In Sderot, Southern district, Hamas militants targeted the area with rocket fire; several were intercepted by the Iron Dome and others fell in open areas.
In Labbouneh, South governorate, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes against Hizbullah positions.
At an Israeli army checkpoint near Ateret, the West Bank, a Palestinian attempting to attack Israeli security forces with a knife was shot dead.
Pulse AI employs a revolutionary algorithm that analyzes both long-term and breaking information to develop living stability assessments worldwide.
Middle East and North Africa Outlook: January 2024
Israeli strikes on Gaza are set to continue over the coming month. Islamist militant group Hamas will continue launching rockets at Israeli territory and claiming terrorist attacks inside Israel. In the West Bank, confrontations between Israeli settlers and Palestinians will continue, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducting repeat raids in the area.
Clashes between Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah and the IDF will take place at a steady pace but will remain within the “rules of engagement” between both parties. This will limit the potential for further escalation.
The Israel-Hamas conflict will continue to fuel frequent civil unrest throughout Morocco, which will remain the North African country with the highest number of incidents related to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Members of civil society will continue to call on the Moroccan government to suspend its normalisation of diplomatic ties with Israel and cut all forms of economic cooperation with Israel. However, protests will remain peaceful and remain unlikely to escalate into violence.
Driven by the continuation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, militancy and war threats will be sustained by Iran-backed paramilitary groups targeting US military assets and a tit-for tat retaliation cycle is likely to persist in the coming weeks. The US conducted retaliatory strikes against these groups in Iraq in December.
There remains an elevated risk of terrorism by Palestinian militants and allied groups, including those based in the West Bank, Lebanon, and within Israel. Seerist has maintained terrorism risk ratings across Europe and MENA regions but assesses that the threat of terrorist attacks by lone perpetrators will remain elevated in the coming weeks.
Protests related to the conflict are likely to continue in major cities around the world, with the scale of participation likely to be triggered by significant developments in the conflict.
Siege and airstrikes continue amid ongoing ground operations across southern and northern Gaza.
An intensive airstrike and artillery campaign targets assets of Palestinian militants across the enclave to take out decision makers as well as soften militants’ defences in southern Gaza.
Israel comes under intense international pressure to renew humanitarian pauses and temporary truces.
Israel/Palestinian Territories:
Militancy remains elevated in the West Bank with Israeli military and civilian interests constituting primary targets.
Sporadic opportunistic militant attacks occur in Israel.
Regional:
Cross-border fire by Hizbullah against the IDF remains sustained over the coming weeks targeting Israeli assets along the border with Lebanon.
Iran-backed actors maintain calibrated attacks, primarily against US assets in the region.
Houthi targeting of Israel and Israel-linked commercial shipping continues, but increased navy presence in the maritime region help mitigate threats, particularly associated with boarding attempts.
Civil unrest in the Middle East and North Africa occurs regularly but is effectively managed by security forces.
Global:
Occasional protests in Western capitals cause disruption to business operations and occasionally involve violent clashes and degradation of Israel-associated assets. The threat of terrorism remains elevated
Developments
Key Implications
Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggers alerts that notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
Most Likely Conflict Scenario: Four-week outlook
More than three months into the Israel-Hamas conflict, experts at Seerist’s strategic partner, Control Risks, consider what developments are likely to take place over the coming weeks. The most likely conflict scenario includes a sustained siege on Gaza, airstrikes, and targeted ground operations in the Palestinian Territories.