South Africa General Elections
29 MAY 2024
MONITORING REPORT
South Africa: Risk Landscape Ahead of the May 2024 Elections
Country Risks Ratings
South Africa’s general elections will take place on 29 May. According to analysis by our strategic partner, Control Risks, we expect the ruling African National Congress (ANC) to remain in power, albeit with a reduced majority. As election campaigning intensifies, periodic localised clashes and minor incidents of unrest are likely, including confrontations between supporters of the ANC and opposition parties such as former president (2009-18) Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), particularly in tightly contested provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Gauteng and Free State.
Nonetheless, South Africa has a history of peaceful elections. Despite the limited threat of localised clashes between rival party supporters in tightly contested provinces, widespread unrest is unlikely ahead of or around the polls. The strong and credible judicial system, coupled with a heavy police presence at campaign rallies and events, is likely to further deter nationwide protests and political violence.
Although businesses are unlikely to be targeted during any electoral violence, sporadic clashes could drive incidents of vandalism, impacting business premises. Moreover, businesses could experience operational disruption from campaign rallies, as well as a slowdown in engagements with government departments as electioneering intensifies.
Operational and infrastructure risk ratings in South Africa are HIGH to reflect challenges related to water and power supply, as well as mismanagement of port and rail infrastructure. The country faces an energy crisis from limited power generation, mismanagement at Eskom and poor maintenance of power stations. As a result, scheduled power cuts (known as load shedding) continue across the country. Additionally, there is a growing water crisis driven by mismanagement of water resources, increased demand and deteriorating infrastructure. Rail and port infrastructure is also experiencing major issues due to mismanagement, corruption and sabotage.
With the government focused on the upcoming elections and the ANC likely to retain power, the government’s existing lack of policy coherence and limited political will to resolve issues will continue to delay improvements to infrastructure in the post-election environment. This will have a direct impact on businesses in sectors such as mining and agriculture, which heavily rely on rail and port infrastructure to export goods. Businesses will continue to be required to invest in alternative energy and water sources, consider using road instead of rail transport and continue to experience delays at ports. This sustains operational disruption and drive operational costs in the coming years.
Inconsistent policy will continue to impact investor confidence as it will create uncertainty around the trajectory of key sectors. Uncertainty around the ANC’s succession plan post-President Cyril Ramaphosa will likely exacerbate heightened infighting and factionalism within the ANC that will further distract from policy formulation and implementation. This policy incoherence will likely contribute to continued socioeconomic underperformance, as existing operational and infrastructure challenges are likely to weigh on the economy for the next two years.
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Source: Control Risks
Monitoring South Africa with AI-Driven Indicators
PULSE AI
SCRIBE AI
Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggers alerts to notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
Scribe AI reports include articles and automated event summaries highlighting notable crime and unrest incidents in a selected location, including at the city-level. Scribe AI also indicates what top news and social media stories are influencing the Pulse stability score for that location.
South Africa has a history of peaceful elections, and over the past 60 days, has sustained a Pulse stability score within its average range between 40 and 47 in the lead up to the election.
Scribe AI features election-related events such as an election panel in Cape Town and uncertainty over the ANC Western Cape premier candidate, along with service delivery protests – these events impact stability in Cape Town.
Election-related events such as an opinion poll showing support for the ANC is near 40% and criticism against the ANC for failing to address socio-economic challenges impact stability in Johannesburg.
Events AI Captures Election-related Events Across South Africa
Create and save custom keyword searches with Events AI to sift through Seerist's curated sources for South Africa and to stay informed on country security and political trends ahead of the polls.
Events AI results include a variety of sources showing different perspectives on the elections in South Africa. On 10 May, the Johannesburg-based Citizen reported on declining support for the ANC, meanwhile News24 reported on issues faced by the opposition DA.
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Seerist Events AI highlights an increase in election and unrest related events in March and April as party campaigning is underway. Emotions AI also indicates elevated levels of fear and anger.
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Verified Event (VE) Data Illustrates Unrest Trends Ahead of the Polls
Seerist has recorded an increase in verified unrest events and events related to service delivery issues in Q1 2024 in South Africa compared to Q4 2023. Verified unrest events showed a 10% increase in Q1 compared to Q4 while events related to service delivery doubled over the same period as election proceedings kicked off.
According to Seerist’s VE database, unrest incidents frequently target political party headquarters, municipal buildings, police stations, universities and block roads. Protest action has largely been peaceful throughout the country’s electoral period, however, sporadic clashes between demonstrators and security personnel have taken place. Unrest has predominantly targeted government services followed by education and law enforcement and is frequently reported in the Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and Western Cape provinces.
Verified unrest events January 2024
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Verified unrest events February 2024
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Verified unrest events March 2024
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Verified unrest events April 2024
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Seerist verified events highlight protests held by opposition party supporters and service delivery protests.
Despite the limited threat of localised clashes between rival party supporters in tightly contested provinces, widespread unrest is unlikely ahead of or around the polls. Businesses are unlikely to be directly targeted amid such unrest and will instead face incidental operational disruptions from protest activity in proximity to their operations or major transport and travel routes.
Durban, KwaZulu-Natal
Dukathole, Germiston, Gauteng
Khayelitsha, Western Cape
Maboke, Mpumalanga
Hover over areas for more protest information.
In Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, around 400 RISE Mzansi supporters gathered and marched to the eThekwini Municipality offices, protesting to demand access to clean and safe drinking water.
In Dukathole, Germiston, Gauteng, locals gathered and blocked roads, protesting against the African National Congress (ANC) and poor service delivery.
On Baden Powell drive in Khayelitsha, Western Cape, locals gathered and blocked the road, during a protest against poor service delivery.
In Maboke, Mpumalanga, locals gathered and disrupted a voter registration station at a primary school, protesting against poor service delivery.
Monitor Election-Related Security Events
Future Events shifts the focus from past and current events to upcoming occurrences, empowering clients to anticipate and navigate future challenges more effectively.
Seerist Future Events highlight upcoming campaign rallies by political parties across South Africa ahead of the 29 May elections. Rallies in South Africa have the potential for traffic disruptions and a heightened security presence around locations where rallies are held. Future events highlight the Impact Type and Potential Severity of upcoming events.
Seerist Analysis: Ruling Party to Maintain Power in Tightly Contested Election
Control Risks assesses that the ruling ANC will remain the largest party nationally and maintain power after the elections, with either a narrow majority or just below 50% of the vote.
However, the likely decline in support for the ANC will result in coalition governments at the provincial level in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), which will increase political instability in the provinces.
A weakened ANC is unlikely to push for significant policy changes post elections, and as a result policy incoherence, operational challenges and ineffective governance will persist.
The business environment is unlikely to significantly improve over the next five years and operational challenges will remain.
Source: Control Risks – published 25 April 2024
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The 29 May general elections will be the most tightly contested polls that South Africa has seen since the advent of democracy in 1994. While the ruling African National Congress (ANC) – which has been in power since 1994 – will remain in government, the elections are also likely to result in the start of coalition governments at a provincial level. This note explores the most likely outcome of the elections, as well as the key policy priorities that the new government is likely to emphasise.
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