South Korea’s Six-hour Martial Law
Event Overview
President Yoon Suk on 3 December (at about 23:00 local time) declared martial law across South Korea during an unannounced television address to the nation. The martial law was lifted on 4 December six hours after it was imposed, following a parliamentary vote that rejected the military rule. Although the exact intentions of Yoon’s declaration of martial law order remains unclear, it is seen as an outcome of years of confrontation between the president and the opposition-controlled National Assembly (parliament). In his declaration of martial law, Yoon cited “despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces” and accused the National Assembly of becoming a “den for criminals”.
Following the lifting of martial law, mass protests immediately erupted in capital Seoul and major cities to demand Yoon’s resignation. Besides, six opposition parties on 4 December submitted a motion to impeach the president. Yoon survived the first impeachment attempt on 7 December after 105 out of 108 ruling People Power Party members boycott the vote. The opposition parties announced that they will report the impeachment bill again to the National Assembly’s plenary session on 12 December and carry out the voting on 14 December – they plan to table the impeachment bill every week until Yoon is impeached.
As the political situation unfolds in South Korea, Seerist continues to monitor events related to the now-lifted martial law, providing timely verified events updates, analysis and forecasts to keep users informed of the latest developments. Seerist has since published three updates and verified 52 unrest events related to the short-lived martial law. This intelligence supports users in making informed decisions and maintaining business continuity amid South Korea’s current volatile and unpredictable political landscape.
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggered alerts notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
Pulse AI History and Trendline shows that South Korea’s Pulse stability score dropped to 49 points on 4 December shortly after the declaration of martial law, and went up to 57 points on the same day after the military rule was lifted – reflecting the sensitiveness of Pulse AI to the development of events.
Declaration of Martial Law
Lifting of Martial Law
Declaration of Martial Law
Lifting of Martial Law
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3 December
Martial law declared.
An unrest Hotspot was triggered in Seoul on 4 December as labour unions, opposition parties, and various civil organisations called for Yoon’s resignation following the lifting of martial law.
Scribe AI automatically generates a report of top events in South Korea from open sources in the past 24 hours; keeping user up-to-date on the trending events following the lifting of martial law.
3 December
4 December
5 December
6 December
7 December
NEXT: 4 DECEMBER
4 December
Martial law lifted.
NEXT: 5 DECEMBER
South Korea’s Daily Sentiment chart shows that the public’s negative sentiment has started to calm down on 5 December. This is also evident from the country’s Emotions AI where a drastic drop in fear and anger was recorded.
NEXT: 6 DECEMBER
5 December
Scribe AI also provides an explanation for South Korea’s current Pulse score and present a stability forecast for the next seven ahead of the presidential impeachment voting on 7 December.
NEXT: 7 DECEMBER
6 December
Events AI extracts information from 6.8 million news and social media sources in 100+ languages. Event categories can be filtered to allow event-type specified monitoring – Follow the results of the parliamentary voting and monitor follow-on unrest events by turning on the ‘Unrest’ filter.
7 December
Parliamentary voting on presidential impeachment
Track and Analyse Related Unrest with Verified Events
Verified Events (VE) are authenticated by a team of subject matter experts that identify, verify, and monitor events 24/7. Gain insights into unrest trends related to the short-lived martial law with Seerist’s well-tagged VE database and create charts for data visualization and analysis.
Seerist verified 52 unrest events related to the short-lived martial law between 3 - 9 December. The heatmap indicates that capital Seoul and Daegu were most impacted by protests demanding the resignation of the president.
The auto-generated Attack Type chart shows that protest was the main form of unrest following the declaration of the short-lived martial law and majority of the protests were peaceful. The only minor clashes between protesters and security forces was recorded on 3 December in Seoul, where security forces attempted to block lawmakers from entering the National Assembly following the martial law order.
Source: Seerist
Source: Seerist
Make Critical Decisions with Seerist Analysis
Our easily digestible strategic analysis, with source information, takes the guesswork out of threat and risk assessment, so users can review likely scenarios and make rapid, strategic decisions.
Martial law declaration increases political stability risks President Yoon Suk-yeol on 4 December (local time) stated that he would lift a martial law declaration hours after it was challenged by a vote of the National Assembly (legislature).
Yoon’s acceptance of the legislature’s vote will alleviate the immediate political crisis.
However, the crisis leaves Yoon weakened and increases the likelihood of further political instability.
The martial law declaration does not indicate specific threats from North Korea or increased risk of regional conflict.
Travel and security risks in South Korea remain low.
Published 3 December 2024
President’s position tenuous; increased risk of large-scale protests after lifting of martial law South Korea’s opposition parties on 4 December submitted a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol for his sudden imposition of martial law on 3 December.
Although his exact intentions are unclear, Yoon’s declaration of martial law order is seen as an outcome of years of confrontation between the president and the opposition-controlled National Assembly (parliament).
Yoon’s failed gambit makes his position increasingly tenuous. The coming days will see legal investigations into him and his national security aides, and an impeachment motion in parliament.
Security and travel risks remain LOW. However, operational disruption from large-scale but generally peaceful protests is likely in the coming days. War risks on the Korean Peninsula remain LOW.
Published 5 December 2024
Big Picture series: Impeachment won’t end political turmoil but martial law revival highly unlikely In the wake of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s imposition of martial law that has provoked backlash across the country, the National Assembly (legislature) on 5 December introduced a motion to impeach him, with a vote expected to take place on 7 December.
Impeachment is likely to pass in the National Assembly. The Constitutional Court will probably uphold impeachment, but this is not certain and will take several weeks or months.
Tensions are high ahead of the vote; if it is blocked or fails, it could trigger unrest. However, the current situation does not warrant raising the country’s LOW political and security risk ratings.
Fears emerged on 6 September that Yoon may again declare martial law. It is highly unlikely Yoon could implement this, but the speculation reflects continued uncertainty.
Political turmoil in Seoul will not prompt major direct military moves against South Korea by North Korea, but the North-South outlook will remain concerning for other reasons.
Published 6 December 2024
Source: Control Risks
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Source: Seerist
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