Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
SITUATION REPORT
Supply Chain Disruption Risk Alert Preceding Ottawa Rally
25 January – 8 February 2022
Click arrow to jump down to next section
BRIEF
Seerist monitors stability in Ottawa, Canada, assessing the potential supply chain disruption risk as the Freedom Rally proceeds to disrupt shipping and supply chain operations. PulseAI Alert notifications and Analysis updates kept teams up to date as the situation worsened.
TIMELINE
25 JANUARY 2022
PulseAI begins plummeting
Stability starts declining when Ottawa doubles down on vaccine mandate for truckers as convoy heads for Ottawa.
29 JANUARY 2022
Pulse Alert and Hotspot triggered
PulseAI drops 13 points triggering a Pulse Alert notification that stability in the city was dropping. Additionally, Seerist triggered an Unrest hotspot notifying users that more people than normal were talking about planned protests in the city.
30 JANUARY 2022
PulseAI hits a 60-day low
Protestors continue moving towards Ottawa and another day of gridlock is anticipated in the city. Hotspot notifying our users of Unrest also remains in the city on January 30th.
2 FEBRUARY 2022
Analysts anticipate continued supply chain disruptions
A Verified Event and an Analysis update were issued that disruptions are likely to continue, contributing to ongoing shipping and supply chain issues.
6 FEBRUARY 2022
Ottawa mayor declares state of emergency
8 FEBRUARY 2022
Rally in Ottawa unlikely to remain isolated event
Although further demonstrations of this scale will be rare, there have already been several smaller rallies supporting the Ottawa demonstration in other Canadian cities – most notably in Edmonton, which caused disruptions downtown, and a smaller one in Winnipeg. At least one key border crossing for US-Canada supply chains was also obstructed on the Canadian side. Furthermore, convoys organizing in Quebec and British Columbia caused extensive traffic towards Ottawa. While most of these incidents have subsided, limited disruptions are likely to continue in Canada.
Protests are expected to continue not only in Ottawa but also globally, posing a supply chain disruption risk that could become widespread. After seeing the impact, intelligence and security teams can proactively create alerts to monitor for this specific movement across the globe.
Explore Seerist Today
Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.
Request a demo