28 March – 2 May 2023
Opposition groups warned on 28 March 2023 that a final agreement between military and civilian representatives that was expected to be announced on 1 April, would “not stabilize the country." Seerist followed the conflict in the following weeks beginning with expert analysis and event tracking to keep users aware of eroding conditions in the country.
Sudan
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
28 MARCH 2023
Former armed groups under the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and representatives from eastern Sudan on 27 March met with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the ruling Sovereign Council.
In a statement following the meeting, the groups said that the main opposition Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition was not adequately representing their interests, and that they would not recognise the legitimacy of a new transitional government.
Workshop fails.
A workshop to discuss the integration of paramilitary Rapid support Forces (RSF) into the SAF failed to agree to a timeline, with mistrust between the two groups fueling resistance to integrate.
29 MARCH 2023
BRIEF
TIMELINE
Expert Analysis warns of unrest.
Geopolitical analysts at Seerist strategic partner, Control Risks, indicate that unrest in the capital Khartoum and other urban areas is likely over the coming weeks, with various groups organizing protests and blockades in response to any new deal for a transitional government.
Protests will cause severe operational and supply chain disruption and clashes could post incidental threats to businesses or personnel.
30 MARCH 2023
Eroding stability.
The Pulse stability score dropped, nearing the bottom of the country’s 60-day range.
6 APRIL 2023
Unrest begins to proliferate.
Seerist’s Intelligence Team verifies unrest event in Zalingei, Central Darfur when hundreds gather and march protesting the delay in arresting perpetrators responsible for killing an army lieutenant colonel.
11 APRIL 2023
War between factions.
Seerist team continues to document escalating clashes between the RSF and SAF, verifying events as they occur. Analysts at our strategic partner, Control Risks, flag that the deteriorating relationship between the two groups will increase the potential for altercations.
15 APRIL 2023
Conflict triggers Hotspots and Travel Warnings.
3 hotspots are triggered by conflict across Sudan as clashes between the RSF and SAF intensify and spread to new areas, such as Khartoum.
17 APRIL 2023
CONCLUSIVE ANALYSIS
17 APRIL 2023
New analysis issued on 17 April 2023 raises war risk to high as fighting between the RSF and SAF escalates, with analysts predicting that the security situation is expected to remain volatile nationwide over the coming days. The Seerist Pulse score indicates deteriorating stability with a short-term forecasted improvement in stability, but continued analysis, alerts and event tracking is keeping users apprised of ongoing activities and the associated impact to operations in the region.
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SITUATION REPORT
Several groups within Sudan warn that a transitional agreement will not be accepted.
Evacuation Phase Rises to EMERGENCY.
Analysts raise the evacuation phase rating from non-essential to EMERGENCY after the fighting between SAF and paramilitary RSF intensifies.
Based on our sources on the ground, Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks advises sheltering in place in Khartoum and other areas of intense fighting. Recommendations also include developing plans for the international evacuation of foreign staff along with preparations for local nationals, including accounting for their locations and developing plans for in-country movements to safer areas.
20 APRIL 2023
Fighting to further complicate humanitarian operations
Continued fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will worsen supply-chain challenges for humanitarian organisations, especially in rural areas.
Although operations at the main port at Port Sudan have thus far not been directly impacted, fighting near the port is increasingly likely over the coming weeks as the two camps compete to control important sections of the national supply chain.
The RSF and the SAF will also continue to compete for control of airports and airfields, complicating air cargo transport.
These dynamics will expose humanitarian organisations to serious operational challenges, especially because cargo will also be vulnerable to looting by both forces.
21 APRIL 2023
SEERIST ANALYSIS
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on 20 April called on the warring parties in Sudan to adhere to a three-day ceasefire, warning that humanitarian operations in the country are impossible.
Clashes in capital likely to intensify in coming days despite negotiation push
Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued on 28 April despite both sides committing to a ceasefire.
International mediators will struggle to broker talks between the leaders of the SAF and RSF as each currently believes it will be able to push the other out of the capital Khartoum.
Clashes will likely remain centred on key government institutions, with the SAF conducting airstrikes against RSF positions in and around Khartoum.
Outside the capital, fighting will remain most intense in the Darfur region, where local communities have mobilised against the RSF and clashes between the RSF and SAF continue.
28 APRIL 2023
SEERIST ANALYSIS
Elevated levels of fear and anger.
AI-driven sentiment and emotional analysis of the conflict reveal elevated levels of fear and anger. Event data over the past 24 hours indicates strongly negative sentiment, even as the daily volume of reporting on Sudan has started to decline.
1 MAY 2023
Fighting in Sudan unlikely to spill over into Libya
The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, on 20 April denied accusations that it is providing support to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
Although the LNA may facilitate military procurement by the RSF, it is unlikely to jeopardise its relationship with Egypt through overt involvement in Sudan. Both the LNA and the SAF depend on Egypt for support.
This will mitigate the threat of a spillover of the conflict in Sudan into Libya.
Nonetheless, increased flows of arms and militia fighters across Libya’s south-eastern border with Sudan will further complicate border security, driving crime threats to operators reliant on roads in the area for cargo transit.
2 MAY 2023
SEERIST ANALYSIS
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