Texas Southwest (SW) Border
Exploring threat events and stability over the past 60 days
SITUATION REPORT
SW Border Threat Events
From 26 February to 25 April 2024, Seerist detected and modeled 785 threat events in the Texas counties along the SW border, 81% of which were crime-related. These included 626 news articles and 159 social media posts.
Events AI detects and models threat events including disaster, unrest, crime, and transportation incidents. The heatmap shows events in those categories captured by Seerist AI/ML from 26 February to 25 April.
Sentiment extracted from these events in aggregate highlights the top 3 emotions during this period: fear, anger and sadness, accounting for 60% of the negative public sentiment detected.
8% Transportation
5% Disaster
4% Unrest
2% Health
81% Crime*
* Seerist’s crime event models include trafficking.
SW Border Tracking Events
In the last 60 days, Seerist detected and modeled 15 crime events – specific to trafficking – within the Texas counties on the SW border. These events indicate the presence of trafficking operations associated with nations and groups outside of Mexico.
Bolivia Cuba El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Venezuela
Sourced from HSI reporting detected by Seerist trafficking model. https://www.dhs.gov/hsi/news/2024/03/08/hsi-el-paso-and-usbp-arrest-25-undocumented-noncitizens-2-alleged-smugglers-seize
Events AI Crime model includes 5 sub-models which focus specifically on events related to drugs, trafficking, kidnappings, shootings and other/more crimes. The heatmap shows trafficking events and their locations along the SW border over the past 60 days.
SW Border Verified Events
In the last 60 days, Seerist verified 6 unrest and crime events on the Texas SW border.
Verified events (VEs) are authenticated by a team of subject matter experts that identify, verify, geolocate and monitor what’s happening on the ground 24/7. Our VE database includes incidents of war, terrorism, unrest and violent crime (with a focus on organized crime) since 2008.
Targeted Sectors
Events by Perpetrator
Events by Attack Type
Targeted Sectors
Law Enforcement and Government sectors were targeted in more than 70% of recent incidents.
Events by Perpetrator
Common Criminals and Local Community Groups were the primary perpetrators in recent incidents.
Events by Perpetrator
Events by Attack Type
Targeted Sectors
Events by Attack Type
Guns or Firearms were involved in most crime and violent unrest activities.
Events by Perpetrator
Events by Attack Type
Targeted Sectors
Risk & Stability Ratings: Mexico
The main threats to business come from crime and the activities of OCGs in certain areas. According to the 2023 Mexico Peace Index, a gradual reduction in homicides for the third year in a row has improved the country’s overall rating in the index. Nevertheless, the country has the ninth-highest homicide rate in the world. Overall homicides decreased by 4.18% between 2022 and 2023 but remain at historically high levels.
The Mexico Peace Index identifies Yucatán as the most peaceful state, followed by Coahuila, Durango, Baja California Sur and Aguascalientes. In contrast, the five least peaceful states were Colima, Zacatecas, Sonora, Baja California and Morelos.
Security risk evaluates threats to the financial, physical, and human assets of a business, as well as the willingness and capability of public security forces to protect corporate assets and personnel.
Seerist assesses regional security in Mexico, as Medium to High in several zones and subzones affected by violent crime, kidnapping, civil unrest, etc.
Sourced from Seerist’s Risk and Stability Ratings, Security Risk Overview for Mexico.
Pulse AI: El Paso and Juarez
Seerist’s Pulse model continuously identifies micro and macro indicators of change in stability over time, using long-term geopolitical indicators as well as threat-associated events to help predict stability in a country, city or region.
El Paso, Texas
Juarez, Mexico
With less than 10 miles between El Paso, Texas and Juarez, Mexico, Seerist’s Pulse model shows broad alignment in stability trends over the past 60 days, with simultaneous decreases and increases recorded at the city level.
Additionally, events impacting these two locations depict a loose correlation of emotions detected and extracted by Seerist’s Events AI models.
Sourced from Seerist’s Watch Dashboard, data reflects a 60-day period.
Analyzing Unrest Near the SW Border
Seerist’s augmented analytics highlight the increase of pro-Palestine and anti-Israel unrest events in cities and towns near the Texas SW border and throughout Mexico from 26 February to 25 April.
Additionally, Events AI provided a wide array of news and social media posts about pro-Palestine associated unrest events, with many sources that are known to be historically biased towards the US and Israel among the first to report on pro-Palestine unrest in the region.
Events associated with pro-Palestine protests and rallies near the SW border exhibited emotions of anger and fear among the public.
3 MARCH
In downtown El Paso, dozens of pro-Palestinian activists protested to demand a ceasefire in Gaza.
Verified Event
31 MARCH
In Mexico City, activists and citizens marched for Palestine, demanding the government break ties with the ”Zionist regime.”
Events AI
5 APRIL
In Mexico City, activists carry out various activities to commemorate al-Quds day in solidarity with Palestinians.
Events AI
7 APRIL
In Mexico City, activists and citizens marched for World al-Quds day and as part of a ”global campaign” to free Palestine from the “Zionist regime."
Events AI
13 APRIL
In Mexico City, dozens gathered at a monument in support of Palestine.
Verified Event
15 APRIL
Pro-Palestinian groups called for a worldwide day of action on 15 April, including in cities across Canada, Mexico and the US.
Future Security Event
Timeline of Events
Seerist’s analytics provide a comprehensive view of unrest developments in Texas and Mexico.
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