Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Host Italy’s priorities for the summit are Ukraine, the Middle East, engagement with the Global South, strengthening relations in the Indo-Pacific, AI, and – for the first time – migration. Diverging positions will persist on enforcing G7 Russia sanctions in third countries (especially in China), as well as how to further expand sanctions in the face of Russia’s economic resilience and circumvention tactics.
The G7 leaders will use their summit in Apulia (Italy) on 13-15 June to reiterate strong support for Ukraine.
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JUNE 2024
Global Outlook
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There will likely be an elevated terrorism threat globally against LGBT+ Pride events throughout June.
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security on 10 May advised that transnational terrorist groups or those inspired by extremist ideology have high intent to target LGBT+ events. The threat will be highest in North America and Europe given the presence of anti-LGBT+ extremists and the concentration of LGBT+ events. “Lone wolf” attacks with the perpetrator using crude tactics like knives and guns against soft targets (such as public gatherings) are most likely.
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Sluggish global growth outlooks will likely remain a critical issue in the OPEC+ meeting on 2 June, amid a sustained downward trend in global demand.
Sticky inflation and high interest rates will likely continue to dampen demand for crude oil globally, elevating the likelihood of sustained production cuts by OPEC+ members. As of the end of May, the price of the benchmark Brent crude is near a three-month low at USD 82 per barrel. Nevertheless, energy markets will likely remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, including in the Ukraine conflict and threats to Red Sea shipping.
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Eight local, national and regional elections will take place in June.
In Mexico on 2 June the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party’s candidate will likely comfortably secure victory. The Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is likely to retain a majority in parliament on 28 June. Right and far-right parties will likely make gains in parliamentary elections in Belgium and across the EU in European Parliament elections on 6-9 June. Local elections in Ireland on 7 June will see the left-wing republican Sinn Fein party secure additional seats. Iceland (1 June) and Mauritania (29 June) will hold presidential elections, and Bulgaria on 9 June will hold snap parliamentary elections.
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The UN’s Desertification and Drought Day on 17 June will be the 30th anniversary of the only legally binding international treaty on land management and drought.
Stakeholders will likely use the anniversary to begin negotiations ahead of the Conference of the Parties (COP16) of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) in December. Extreme temperatures will likely continue to strain energy, health and transport infrastructure in certain regions in the coming weeks, as seen recently in Pakistan, Mexico and India.
Sources:
“European G7 ministers warn over China trade war risks”, Reuters
“FBI and DHS warn terrorists could target Pride events in June”, NBC News
“Opec+ switches to online meeting as market expects cuts to continue”, Financial Times
“The Mexican state where candidates are gunned down as they push for votes”, BBC News
“Global temperature record streak continues, as climate change makes heatwaves more extreme,” World Meteorological Organization
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
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The terrorism threat will remain elevated.
The terrorism threat will remain elevated during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (approximately 10 March-9 April), Christian Easter religious holidays (29 March-6 April), and the Jewish holidays of Purim (23-24 March) and Passover (22-30 April). Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in Islamist extremist attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates. The Israel-Hamas conflict will likely further bolster intent by these groups to stage attacks. Local affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are the most likely actors to stage attacks during this period.
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The Group of 7 (G7) foreign ministers on 17-19 April will meet in Capri (Italy) to discuss the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, among other geopolitical issues.
The UN Security Council on 25 March passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza (with the US abstaining on an Israel-linked resolution for the first time since 2016), highlighting the mounting international pressure on Israel to end its military operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, missile and drone strikes in Ukraine and Russia will likely continue at an elevated rate in the coming weeks, with Kyiv and Moscow prioritising critical infrastructure targets.
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Terrorism threats from Islamist extremists will likely remain elevated through April.
The Muslim holy month of Ramadan (until approximately 9 April) and the Christian Easter week (until 1 April) will likely continue to drive increased intent by Islamist extremists to mount attacks against religious places or public spaces, predominantly in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. The potential expansion of Israeli military ground operations into Rafah (southern Gaza) will also likely drive increased intent to mount attacks against Western countries.
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The IMF and World Bank on 15-20 April will discuss global financial concerns amid sustained high inflation and strained public finances at their annual Spring Meetings.
Our strategic partner Oxford Economics anticipates several central bank rate decreases from mid-2024, including in the US and UK. However, uncertainty will likely persist in the coming weeks. Debt restructuring will likely also be a critical topic. On 25 March, Zambia – the first country to default on its pandemic-related debt – was the first to successfully negotiate with its creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Ghana will attempt to follow suit through April.
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The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries will most likely sustain production cuts beyond Q2 during a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on 3 April.
In early March, the group agreed to sustain a voluntary cut of 2.2m barrels per day (bpd) through the end of Q2 – including a 1m bpd cut by Saudi Arabia. The cut extension is a continued effort to protect the price floor of USD 80 per barrel for alliance members in the face of downward pressure on oil prices from lower-than-expected economic demand in China and high oil production rates and exports by the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.