Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The UN Security Council on 25 March passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza (with the US abstaining on an Israel-linked resolution for the first time since 2016), highlighting the mounting international pressure on Israel to end its military operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, missile and drone strikes in Ukraine and Russia will likely continue at an elevated rate in the coming weeks, with Kyiv and Moscow prioritising critical infrastructure targets.
The Group of 7 (G7) foreign ministers on 17-19 April will meet in Capri (Italy) to discuss the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, among other geopolitical issues.
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APRIL 2024
Global Outlook
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Terrorism threats from Islamist extremists will likely remain elevated through April.
The Muslim holy month of Ramadan (until approximately 9 April) and the Christian Easter week (until 1 April) will likely continue to drive increased intent by Islamist extremists to mount attacks against religious places or public spaces, predominantly in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. The potential expansion of Israeli military ground operations into Rafah (southern Gaza) will also likely drive increased intent to mount attacks against Western countries.
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The IMF and World Bank on 15-20 April will discuss global financial concerns amid sustained high inflation and strained public finances at their annual Spring Meetings.
Our strategic partner Oxford Economics anticipates several central bank rate decreases from mid-2024, including in the US and UK. However, uncertainty will likely persist in the coming weeks. Debt restructuring will likely also be a critical topic. On 25 March, Zambia – the first country to default on its pandemic-related debt – was the first to successfully negotiate with its creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Ghana will attempt to follow suit through April.
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The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries will most likely sustain production cuts beyond Q2 during a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on 3 April.
In early March, the group agreed to sustain a voluntary cut of 2.2m barrels per day (bpd) through the end of Q2 – including a 1m bpd cut by Saudi Arabia. The cut extension is a continued effort to protect the price floor of USD 80 per barrel for alliance members in the face of downward pressure on oil prices from lower-than-expected economic demand in China and high oil production rates and exports by the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
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Eight national and local elections will take place throughout April, including in geopolitical middle powers India and South Korea.
India on 19 April will begin general election polls and will likely see current Prime Minister Narendra Modi retain his majority. In contrast, South Korea’s elections on 10 April remain a toss-up, with polls suggesting a close contest between the governing People Power Party and the opposition Democratic Party. Kuwait (4 April), Croatia (17 April), Togo (20 April) and the Maldives (21 April) will hold legislative elections. Local elections will take place in Poland (7 April). The first round of the presidential elections in North Macedonia will be on 24 April.
Sources:
“Russia targets Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in major strike”, Financial Times
U.S. Says ISIS Was responsible for Deadly Moscow Concert Hall Attack”, New York Times
“Zambia strikes preliminary deal on $3 bln international bond rework”, Reuters
“OPEC Sees No Need for Policy Change Proposal at Next Week’s Meeting”, Oil Price
“India elections 2024: Vote to be held in seven states”, BBC News
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
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The terrorism threat will remain elevated.
The terrorism threat will remain elevated during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (approximately 10 March-9 April), Christian Easter religious holidays (29 March-6 April), and the Jewish holidays of Purim (23-24 March) and Passover (22-30 April). Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in Islamist extremist attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates. The Israel-Hamas conflict will likely further bolster intent by these groups to stage attacks. Local affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are the most likely actors to stage attacks during this period.
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The Group of 7 (G7) foreign ministers on 17-19 April will meet in Capri (Italy) to discuss the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, among other geopolitical issues.
The UN Security Council on 25 March passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza (with the US abstaining on an Israel-linked resolution for the first time since 2016), highlighting the mounting international pressure on Israel to end its military operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, missile and drone strikes in Ukraine and Russia will likely continue at an elevated rate in the coming weeks, with Kyiv and Moscow prioritising critical infrastructure targets.
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Terrorism threats from Islamist extremists will likely remain elevated through April.
The Muslim holy month of Ramadan (until approximately 9 April) and the Christian Easter week (until 1 April) will likely continue to drive increased intent by Islamist extremists to mount attacks against religious places or public spaces, predominantly in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia. The potential expansion of Israeli military ground operations into Rafah (southern Gaza) will also likely drive increased intent to mount attacks against Western countries.
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The IMF and World Bank on 15-20 April will discuss global financial concerns amid sustained high inflation and strained public finances at their annual Spring Meetings.
Our strategic partner Oxford Economics anticipates several central bank rate decreases from mid-2024, including in the US and UK. However, uncertainty will likely persist in the coming weeks. Debt restructuring will likely also be a critical topic. On 25 March, Zambia – the first country to default on its pandemic-related debt – was the first to successfully negotiate with its creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Ghana will attempt to follow suit through April.
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The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries will most likely sustain production cuts beyond Q2 during a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on 3 April.
In early March, the group agreed to sustain a voluntary cut of 2.2m barrels per day (bpd) through the end of Q2 – including a 1m bpd cut by Saudi Arabia. The cut extension is a continued effort to protect the price floor of USD 80 per barrel for alliance members in the face of downward pressure on oil prices from lower-than-expected economic demand in China and high oil production rates and exports by the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.