Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Risks: Political, Operational, Security
The terrorism threat will remain elevated during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (approximately 10 March-9 April), Christian Easter religious holidays (29 March-6 April), and the Jewish holidays of Purim (23-24 March) and Passover (22-30 April). Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in Islamist extremist attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates. The Israel-Hamas conflict will likely further bolster intent by these groups to stage attacks. Local affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are the most likely actors to stage attacks during this period.
The terrorism threat will remain elevated.
1
SCroll down to explore
march 2024
Global Outlook
2
Elections will likely see incumbents retain control.
Elections will likely see incumbents retain control, including in Iran and Russia. Moscow will seek to moderate its response to the Ukraine conflict ahead of the presidential polls. In Turkey, the government will likely retake control of some key municipalities. And in Portugal and Slovakia, support for far-right and populist parties will likely be evident – a growing trend across the European region. In the US, the 5 March Super Tuesday presidential primaries will decide approximately one-third of delegates – practically cementing the nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties. We anticipate limited unrest around the March polls.
3
Widespread outbreaks of infectious diseases will likely continue.
Widespread outbreaks of infectious diseases will likely continue to be a cause for concern in Latin America, South and South-east Asia, and Africa. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on 16 February reported more than 500,000 dengue fever cases in January alone, predominantly in Latin America and South Asia. Business operations will not be affected as seen during the disruption in the COVID-19 pandemic. The global vaccine producer of a dengue vaccine on 27 February said that it plans to scale up production and aims to make vaccines available in endemic countries by 2030.
Talk to us.
Let us show you how Seerist delivers the critical threat and risk intelligence you and your organization need to support strategic and operational decision-making.
Request a demo
