Tracking Serbia Protests
November 2024 - Present
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Overview of the Heightened Unrest Risk in Serbia
Civil unrest risk rating raised to HIGH amid growing, sustained anti-government protests
Large anti-government protests have been taking place across the country since late 2024, with at least 100,000 people taking part in a demonstration in the capital Belgrade on 15 March.
We are raising our civil unrest risk rating from medium to HIGH to reflect the increasing attendance at and likelihood of violence at protests in the capital Belgrade, Novi Sad and other cities.
Further planned protests are likely to go ahead in the coming weeks, and clashes between police and protesters are credible. Protesters are increasingly likely to target domestic businesses with close ties to the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Aleksandar Vucic with disruptive activism.
While protesters are unlikely to target foreign companies, business assets or personnel may experience disruption from road blockades or if located in the vicinity of protests and related clashes in major urban centres.
Source: Control Risks analysis published on 19 March 2025
Business impact
Protesters are increasingly likely to target domestic businesses that have close ties to the SNS and Vucic with disruptive activism but remain unlikely to target foreign companies. Nonetheless, disruption to normal business operations is likely in major cities due to road blockades and nearby clashes. Escalating tensions are likely to continue to lead to targeted vandalism – primarily against government buildings and state-associated infrastructure.
The current police response remains highly targeted. However, a heavy-handed government response is credible and would be likely provoke further violent confrontations and lead to an increase in associated operational disruption.
Seerist’s Risk Ratings and PulseAI score reflect the heightened security risk due to civil unrest in Serbia.
Novi Sad Railway Station Canopy Collapse
1 November
20,000 strong protest in Novi Sad; incendiary devices were thrown at the city hall, causing a fire, and policemen intervened, arresting nine. [VE]
5 November
Understanding the Evolution of the Protest Movement
Seerist’s database of Verified Events shows the rising trend of student and opposition-led protests in Serbia following the Novi Sad railway station incident on November 1.
In Belgrade, tens of thousands of people gathered at Slavija Square to pay tribute to the victims of Novi Sad disaster, while also protesting to demand government accountability for the disaster. [VE]
22 December
Eight Verified Events recorded related to nationwide anti-government protests organised to demand accountability for the collapse of a train station roof, including in Belgrade; Kraljevo, Šumadija and Western Serbia; Šabac, Šumadija and Western Serbia; Smederevo, Podunavlje; Jagodina, Šumadija and Western Serbia; and Zaječar, Southern and Eastern Serbia.
24 January
In Belgrade, between 275,000 and 325,000 students and other demonstrators gathered to hold anti-government rallies over a railway station collapse in Novi Sad in November 2024, but the government claimed that 107,000 people attended the rallies; firework detonations were reported. [VE]
15 March
This graph of Verified Events shows how ‘View Trends’ within Seerist search can be used to track developments within a story.
Tracking the Spread of Student Protests Across Serbia
1 November – 30 November 2024
1 December 2024 – 31 January 2025
1 February 2025 – 20 March 2025
1 November – 30 November 2024
1 December 2024 – 31 January 2025
1 February 2025 – 20 March 2025
The heatmaps provide insight into areas where protests have been concentrated and how protests gradually spread to smaller cities in various parts of Serbia from the major cities of Novi Sad and Belgrade.
Using PulseAI to Stay Ahead of Trends
FORESIGHT
Tracking Upcoming and Ongoing Unrest with Search
Using keyword searches, users can view a Live Feed of EventsAI results that provide foresight into upcoming protests and insight into ongoing disruptions in Serbia.
A combination of social media sources, such as X (formerly Twitter), and local journalistic sources allows users to closely track developments, including those specific to individual cities, in real-time.
Analysis of Protest Tactics
Protester targeting of state broadcaster highlights expanded use of disruptive tactics
Student-led anti-government protesters and police officers on 11 March clashed outside the office of state broadcaster Radio Television of Serbia (RTS) in the capital Belgrade during a protest.
The use of disruptive direct action tactics against RTS highlights the student-led protesters’ evolving tactics and widening scope of targets as anti-government protests continue.
Further planned protests are likely to go ahead in the coming weeks, which have the potential to feature further low-level clashes with police and attempts to block access to premises of government departments and state media outlets.
Although protesters are increasingly likely to target domestic businesses with close ties to the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Aleksandar Vucic with disruptive activism, they are unlikely to target foreign firms.
Business assets or personnel may also be incidentally impacted by freight disruption from road blockades and being caught up in the vicinity of protests and related low-level clashes in major urban centres.
INSIGHT
Source: Control Risks analysis published on 13 March 2025
Protests The demonstration took place outside RTS headquarters, as student-led protesters demonstrated against the government and RTS’ reporting. Dozens of protesters obstructed access to RTS headquarters, preventing RTS employees from entering the building. Protesters clashed with police as law enforcement attempted to enter the building to break up the protest. One police officer was injured. A concurrent demonstration at an office of regional RTS affiliate Radio Television of Vojvodina (RTV) in the city of Novi Sad (Vojvodina province) also forced the media to halt broadcasting temporarily.
The demonstration is one of near-daily protests against the government since the November 2024 collapse of a train station roof in Novi Sad that killed 15 people. The student-led protesters blame government corruption in the station’s 2023 renovation for the accident. The protests have since morphed into wider anti-government demonstrations. In response, the government has launched an anti-corruption campaign and multiple high-level government officials have resigned, including former Prime Minister Milos Vucevic.
The SNS and Aleksandar Vucic possess significant influence over state media in Serbia. Protesters have previously condemned state media outlets for allegedly aiding and abetting government corruption and accused them of pro-government bias.
Unrest ahead The demonstration highlights the student protesters’ evolving tactics and widening scope of targets as the protest movement continues. Student protesters have previously blockaded major roads and bridges in an effort to obstruct travel and rally support for their cause. However, direct action aimed at obstructing broadcasters’ operations represents a new tactic by the protest movement, and an expansion of its use of such tactics beyond government targets to affiliated state media.
The clashes also signal the likelihood of further clashes between protesters and police, particularly ahead of and during the student-led protesters’ next large-scale rally, scheduled for 15 March in the capital and other major cities. Vucic on 10 March in an interview with RTS predicted that the protesters would be violent and condemned violent demonstrations.
Business impact The protesters’ targeting of state media indicates that businesses and entities with close ties to Vucic or the SNS are liable to be targeted with disruptive tactics such as blocking access to premises. However, foreign firms are unlikely to be the target of disruptive activism. Nevertheless, the likelihood of further clashes between protesters and police at the almost daily anti-government rallies will continue to present incidental threats to businesses. The most likely incidental threat will be business personnel being caught up in the vicinity of protest. Protest tactics such as blockading roads will also continue to disrupt to freight operations, as well as personnel’s commutes.
Outlook Protests over governance concerns present limited challenge to political stability
Student led protests that began in November 2024 keep consistent pressure on the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)-led government throughout early 2025. The opposition becomes progressively more united behind the protesters’ grievances related to governance and corruption. The protests embolden other protest movements, such as the environmentalist movement, to begin demonstrations in support of their respective causes. Slower-than-expected economic growth, coupled with the ongoing protests, puts pressure on the government to make concessions to the opposition on matters such as the environment and the rule of law. Public discontent leads to frequent anti-government protests in major cities. Increasing disagreements within the SNS slow the passage of legislation.
Alternative Government loses majority in snap elections, remains in office
Protests over governance concerns continue without interruption throughout early 2025. In addition, protesters begin to collaborate closely with other groups dissatisfied with the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)-led government, such as environmentalists who oppose the Jadar lithium mining project. The SNS uses heavy-handed tactics to suppress the protesters, which only fuel further demonstrations. These protests lead to a significant decline in popular support for the SNS. President Aleksandar Vucic calls snap elections in mid-2025. The SNS remains in office through a combination of voter suppression and other election interference tactics, but loses its absolute majority in parliament. Infighting between the SNS and its coalition partners limits the extent to which the party is able to pass legislation after the election.
Outlier Political scandal pushes government to escalate security situation with Kosovo
Mass protests continue throughout early 2025 amid an unprecedented fall in support for the governing Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The government makes token concessions, but these are insufficient to appease protesters. Unrest is also fuelled by worsening socioeconomic conditions and falling standards of living. To distract from domestic problems, the government rapidly ramps up its ultranationalist policies and rhetoric towards Kosovo. Clashes between Serbia-backed paramilitaries and Kosovan police at the border increase. The EU and US impose international economic penalties and sanctions on Belgrade that rapidly degrade the investment environment.
Outlook
Alternative
Outlier
Serbia Political Scenarios
Control Risks Scenarios present different ways a country’s trajectory may evolve over the coming 12 months.
FORESIGHT
Heatmaps of Serbia with security risk overlay showing Unrest Verified Events from 1 November 2024 – 20 March 2025
Hover over dates to view heatmap.
Jan 28
Serbia’s PulseAI score dropped from 62.1 on 21 January to 57.4 on January 23, indicating falling expectations for stability in Serbia. Prime Minister Miloš Vučević subsequently resigned on January 28.
Serbia’s PulseAI score dropped to 54.1 on March 15, the day that a protest with at least 100,000 attendees took place in Belgrade, where reports alleged that authorities used a sonic weapon against the protestors. As seen in the component breakdown, the drop was primarily a result of Unrest risk.
Jan 28
Mar 15
Jan 28
Mar 15
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Protests The demonstration took place outside RTS headquarters, as student-led protesters demonstrated against the government and RTS’ reporting. Dozens of protesters obstructed access to RTS headquarters, preventing RTS employees from entering the building. Protesters clashed with police as law enforcement attempted to enter the building to break up the protest. One police officer was injured. A concurrent demonstration at an office of regional RTS affiliate Radio Television of Vojvodina (RTV) in the city of Novi Sad (Vojvodina province) also forced the media to halt broadcasting temporarily.
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