Source: TD Securities
Tax Implications
Fiscal Implications
Rates
Equities
Trump White House
Republican Congress
Democrat Congress
Biden White House
Higher deficits as 2017 tax cuts made permanent.
Few changes to current policy. Tariffs on foreign goods likely.
Higher deficits could push term premium higher.
Positive boost from taxes remaining low, but trade war fears a drag.
Positive boost from taxes remaining low, but trade war fears a drag.
Term premium likely to continue rising as deficits remain substantial.
Status quo, but highest tax brackets may rise somewhat.
Tax cuts renewed, but not at original levels. More revenues and lower spending likely.
Headwind from higher corporate taxes and possible higher capital gains taxes on wealthy.
Term premium could remain elevated, but higher revenues may encourage investors.
Higher taxes for wealthy, corporate taxes increase to 28%.
Tax cuts renewed, but higher tax rates for wealthy to offset higher social spending.
Modest headwind due to higher corporate taxes.
Deficits unlikely to decline, keeping term premium high.
Higher taxes for wealthy, but likely more moderate rise in corporate taxes.
Tax cuts renewed, but taxes likely to rise on the rich.
Split Congress
Split Congress
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Split Congress
Democrat Congress
Split Congress
Biden White House