Change can feel overwhelming when you’re living through it. The same is true of artificial intelligence (AI). We may understand the potential benefits, but we also fear the unknown impacts. History suggests something important:
Innovation can be an opportunity as much as a disruption—both to our lives and our portfolios.
Waking Up to the Future
How 125 Years of Innovation Prepare Us for the Age of AI
The Age of Industrialization and World Wars (1900–1945)
A Historical Lens:
The Rip Van Winkle Effect
To put today’s changes in context, consider the Rip Van Winkle Effect: waking up after decades asleep and finding the world transformed.
Past generations faced new technologies and adapted. By understanding how people navigated earlier periods of change, we can approach today’s innovations with greater confidence and resilience.
Five Inflection Points That Shaped Our Nation—and How People Navigated Them
The Age of Industrialization and World Wars
Innovation Predictions: What Experts Got Right and Wrong
The predictions below reflect both the optimism and skepticism of the era. While some thinkers foresaw transformative technologies, others underestimated their potential or feared their consequences.
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
Growth of $10,000: Stocks, Bonds, 50/50 Portfolio, and Cash (1900-1945)
Stocks
Bonds
50% Stocks/50% Bonds
Cash
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The performance shown is index performance and is not indicative of any Hartford Funds product. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Stock returns prior to 1926 are based on the Cowles Commission Composite Index of US common stocks as compiled by Robert Shiller and by the S&P 500 Index and its historical predecessor series, as measured by the S&P 90 Stock Index thereafter. Bond returns prior to 1926 are based on the Shiller Long Term US Government Bond Proxy and by IA SBBI LT Government Index thereafter. Cash returns prior to 1926 are represented by bank deposit rates and by IA SBBI US 30 Day T-Bill Index thereafter. See below for index definitions. For illustrative purposes only. Data Sources: NBER, Shillerdata.com, and Morningstar, 1/26.
I find myself in a world that’s louder, faster, and more mechanical than what I left behind.
Horse-drawn carriages under gas lamps have been replaced by automobiles under electric lights
Distance has shrunk—radio and telephone connect people instantly across great distances
Two world wars and a terrible economic depression brought radical changes to humanity
PHASE 5: 2021- Present
PHASE 4: 2001-2020
PHASE 3: 1974-2000
PHASE 2: 1946-1973
PHASE 1: 1900-1945
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Automobile
Enabled personal mobility, reshaped cities with roads and suburbs, reduced reliance on horses, and created jobs in manufacturing, oil, and infrastructure.
correct predictions
incorrect predictions
“Live performances will be broadcast remotely.”
– Hildebrands "Life in 2000" postcard, 1900
“Automobiles will replace horse travel.”
– John Elfreth Watkins, civil engineer, 1900
“We will have hot and cold air from spigots.”
– Watkins, 1900
“Trains will reach speeds of 150 mph.”
– Watkins, 1900
Time Asleep: 45 Years
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Telephone
Revolutionized communication with instant contact across distances and added jobs in the telecom industry.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Radio
Brought news, entertainment, and propaganda into homes and created a more unified national culture, along with jobs in broadcasting and advertising.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Assembly Line
Increased production efficiency, lowered cost of goods, and standardized labor. Led to job gains in factories but losses in artisanal trades.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Airplane
Enabled long-distance travel and new military strategies; symbolized modernity. Created jobs in aviation, logistics, and defense.
“Brains can't keep up with cars going 80 mph.”
– The New York Times, 1904
“Everything will be made of steel.”
– Thomas Edison, 1911
“Recorded music will destroy all musical ability.”
– John Philip Sousa, 1906
“The automobile is only a novelty—a fad.”
– Michigan Savings Bank president, 1903
incorrect predictions
correct predictions
“The US space program is 'America's greatest generator of new ideas in science and technology.'”
– Wernher von Braun, aerospace engineer, 1958
“Suburbia is becoming the most important single market in the country. ... All suburbs are not alike, but they are more alike than they are different.”
– William H. Whyte, sociologist and journalist, 1956
“Television is a medium which lends itself to manipulation, exploitation, and gimmicks. It can be abused by demagogues, by appeals to emotion and prejudice and ignorance.”
– Senator John F. Kennedy, 1959
correct predictions
incorrect predictions
incorrect predictions
correct predictions
The predictions below reflect both the optimism and skepticism of the era. While some thinkers foresaw transformative technologies, others underestimated their potential or feared their consequences.
Innovation Predictions: What Experts Got Right and Wrong
Post-War Prosperity and Social Transformation
It feels as though civilization leapt forward while I slept.
Highways connect the country
Televisions bring moving images into homes
Supermarkets offer an abundance of food
Time Asleep: 27 Years
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Polio Vaccine
Curbed a widespread disease, sharply reducing the fear of recurring epidemics.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Commercial Jet
Made global travel accessible, shrinking the world and opening up an entire industry to new careers.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Interstate Highways
Enabled suburban living, long-distance travel, and new business models, providing jobs in transportation and trucking.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Television
Became the centerpiece of family life, shaping culture and news, and creating a new range of jobs in media.
Suburbs grow outside crowded cities
Home Appliances
Automated labor-intensive, time-consuming chores, enabling greater efficiency in the home.
“I'm convinced that before the year 2000 is over, the first child will have been born on the moon.”
– Wernher von Braun, aerospace engineer, 1972
On the cost of nuclear power: “It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter.”
– Lewis Strauss, chair of the US Atomic Energy Commission, 1954
“Machines will be capable within 20 years of doing any work a man can do.”
– Herbert Simon, Nobel Prize Winner, 1956
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
$182,543
$73,816
$23,881
$22,343
Growth of $10,000: Stocks, Bonds, 50/50 Portfolio, and Cash (1946-1973)
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stocks are represented by the Ibbotson Large Company Stock Index from 1957 until February 1970 using the S&P 500 Composite Index and its historical predecessor series, the S&P 90 Index, prior to this, and by the S&P 500 Index thereafter. Bonds are represented by the IA SBBI LT Government Index. Cash returns are represented by the IA SBBI US 30 Day T-Bill Index. See below for index definitions. For illustrative purposes only. Data Source: Morningstar, 1/26.
Stocks
Bonds
50% Stocks/50% Bonds
Cash
“The computer will increasingly replace the commuter.”
– Gerald Celente, director of the Trends Research Institute, 1994
“Video conferencing bears a terrifying promise: Distance will no longer be an excuse for not attending meetings.”
– Steve Steinberg of Wired Magazine, 1994
“Arguing against globalization is like arguing against the laws of gravity.”
– Kofi Annan, 2000
correct predictions
incorrect predictions
“The Y2K problem is the electronic equivalent of the El Niño, and there will be nasty surprises around the globe.”
– John Hamre, US Deputy Secretary of Defense, 1999
“The only people using [ATMs] were call girls and gamblers who didn't want to deal with tellers face to face.”
– Luther Simjian, inventor of the Bankograph, 1997
“Somehow, the microcomputer industry has assumed that everyone would love to have a keyboard grafted on as an extension of their fingers. It just is not so.”
– The New York Times, 1985
incorrect predictions
correct predictions
The predictions below reflect both the optimism and skepticism of the era. While some thinkers foresaw transformative technologies, others underestimated their potential or feared their consequences.
Innovation Predictions: What Experts Got Right and Wrong
Globalization, Technology, and Social Change
I was stunned to wake up to glowing screens perched on every desk, and the internet weaving invisible threads between people continents apart.
Information becomes instantly accessible
Global brands dominate
The pace of change accelerates
Time Asleep: 26 Years
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Global Supply Chain
Expanded access to cheaper, more diverse goods while shifting jobs overseas and tightly interlinking global communities.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
ATM
Extended access to banking beyond branch hours, reducing reliance on human tellers and paving the way for self-service technology in other industries.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Mobile Phone
Made communication instant and portable, increasing flexibility for work and travel while blurring the line between personal and professional time.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Internet
Connected people globally, enabled e-commerce, and fundamentally changed how information is accessed and shared.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Personal Computer
Transformed work, education, and entertainment by automating routine tasks and creating entirely new technology-driven jobs.
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2000
$60,903
$106,067
$210,013
$358,097
Stocks
Bonds
50% Stocks/50% Bonds
Cash
Growth of $10,000: Stocks, Bonds, 50/50 Portfolio, and Cash (1974-2000)
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Cash returns are represented by the Bloomberg US Treasury Bill 1-3 Month Index. See below for index definitions. For illustrative purposes only. Data Source: Morningstar, 1/26.
“Data is the new oil.”
– Clive Humby, British data scientist, 2006
“Social media isn't a fad, it's a fundamental shift in the way we communicate.”
– Erik Qualman, author of Socialnomics, 2009
“Digital cameras will be ubiquitous, with just about everyone using computers to edit photos and digital video.”
– Michael J. Miller, CIO at Ziff Brothers Investments, 2001
correct predictions
incorrect predictions
“Cities will be built around this device (the Segway).”
– John Doerr, venture capitalist, 2001
“Flying cars will break the bonds of road and traffic.”
– Steven Crow, NASA-affiliated researcher [Frequently cited in 2000s transportation discourse]
“People don't want to buy their music as a subscription. They bought 45s, LPs, cassettes, 8-tracks, and CDs. They're going to want to buy downloads.”
– Steve Jobs, former Apple CEO, 2003
incorrect predictions
correct predictions
The predictions below reflect both the optimism and skepticism of the era. While some thinkers foresaw transformative technologies, others underestimated their potential or feared their consequences.
Innovation Predictions: What Experts Got Right and Wrong
The Digital and Information Age
Imagine my surprise seeing the ubiquity of pocket-sized smartphones that are more powerful than the computers that planned the moon landing.
People share their lives across vast digital networks
Movies stream through the air instead of wires
Shopping happens with a cursory tap
Time Asleep: 19 Years
Major Inventions and Their Impact
GPS Navigation
Made travel and logistics easier and more efficient.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Streaming Services
Changed how people consume media and entertainment.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Cloud Computing
Enabled remote work, flexible storage, and new business models.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Social Media
Connected people, shaped culture, and created new careers.
Major Inventions and Their Impact
Smartphone
Combined phone, computer, and camera; changed communication and daily routines.
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2020
$13,249
$25,702
$36,013
$42,231
Stocks
Bonds
50% Stocks/50% Bonds
Cash
Growth of $10,000: Stocks, Bonds, 50/50 Portfolio, and Cash (2001-2020)
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are represented by the IA SBBI LT Government Index until 1975 and by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index thereafter. Cash returns are represented by the IA SBBI US 30 Day T-Bill Index until 11/30/91 and by the Bloomberg US Treasury Bill 1-3 Month Index thereafter. See below for index definitions. For illustrative purposes only. Data Source: Morningstar, 1/26.
The Era of Uncertainty and Transformation
OpenAI releases
a text-to-image
generation tool
JAN 2021
AUG 2021
Tesla announces
Optimus, a
humanoid robot
ChatGPT publicly
launches, triggering
mass adoption of AI
NOV 2022
MAR 2023
ChatGPT-4 is released, showing major improvements in reasoning
EU approves the AI Act, the first comprehensive AI
regulatory framework
MAR 2024
OCT 2024
NVIDIA surpasses Apple as the largest company in the
world
China announces DeepSeek, which has near-parity with leading AI systems
JAN 2025
MID-2025
AI agents become efficient in multi-step planning and performing autonomous tasks
Tesla begins mass production of Optimus Gen 3 for large-scale industrial use
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
Multiple sectors sell off as markets digest what AI
means for the economy
Hartford Mutual Funds may or may not be invested in the companies referenced above; however, no particular endorsement of any product or service is being made.
Timeline of Select AI Milestones
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
$9,820
$11,728
$14,160
$19,616
Growth of $10,000: Stocks, Bonds, 50/50 Portfolio, and Cash (2021-2025)
Stocks
Bonds
50% Stocks/50% Bonds
Cash
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Cash returns are represented by the Bloomberg US Treasury Bill 1-3 Month Index. See below for index definitions. For illustrative purposes only. Data Source: Morningstar, 1/26.
Investing
"Some of the largest technology companies will likely emerge as winners, but newer companies will also succeed. It's possible the company that comes to define success in the AI era hasn't even been
founded yet." — Strategists at Wellington Management
Innovation Predictions: Who Will Be Right and Wrong?
RELATIONSHIPS
the workplace
digital assistants
longevity
RELATIONSHIPS
"You won't know if the person you're talking to is real. And you won't care. ... Half of [your friends and mentors] will be AI. And they'll be indistinguishable." — Simon Villani, PhD, Lead AI Engineer at ANZ
the workplace
digital assistants
longevity
investing
investing
digital assistants
longevity
the workplace
"The future isn't AI vs. humans. It's AI and humans, and the leaders who make these shifts will define what comes next." — Erica Orange, futurist and author of "AI + The New Human Frontier"
RELATIONSHIPS
investing
RELATIONSHIPS
digital assistants
"Everyone will have one—or several—digital aides, working tirelessly even when we sleep. Our agents will negotiate with other agents, creating an economy of bot-to-bot interactions." — Kevin Kelly, best-selling author and founding executive editor of Wired magazine
longevity
the workplace
investing
RELATIONSHIPS
the workplace
LONGEVITY
"Advanced regenerative medicine could make a 90-year-old have the biological vitality of a 50-year-old." — INAIR, a spatial-computing company founded by XR and AI experts
digital assistants
Enduring Strategies for a Changing World
Diversification Never Goes Out of Favor
Innovation can positively impact all types of companies and industries, often in unexpected ways, so diversifying across asset classes can be a prudent strategy.
click to expand
As of 12/31/25. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment and are not representative of any Hartford Fund’s performance. Large-Cap Growth Stocks are represented by the Russell 1000 Growth Index, which measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the US equity universe. Large-Cap Value Stocks are represented by Russell 1000 Value Index, which measures the performance of Russell 1000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios (the ratio of a stock’s price to its book value per share) and lower forecasted growth values. Mid-Cap Stocks are represented by the Russell Midcap Index, which measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the US equity universe. Small-Cap Stocks are represented by the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, which measures developed market equity performance, excluding the US and Canada. Emerging Markets Stocks are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures equity market performance in the global emerging markets. Core Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, which is composed of securities that cover the US investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. Short Duration Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg 1-3 Year Gov’t/Credit Index, which is comprised of the US Gov’t/Credit component of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Cash Investments are represented by the Bloomberg 1-3 Month US Treasury Bill Index which tracks the market for Treasury bills with 1 to 2.9999 months to maturity issued by the US government. Diversified Portfolio is represented by an equal portion (12.5%) of each asset class, excluding cash. Data Source: Morningstar, 2/26.
Bonds Helped Counterbalance Stocks in Turbulent Markets
Markets could experience significant volatility as they digest what AI and innovation mean for different companies. Owning bonds has helped reduce the impact of significant stock market drawdowns.
As of 12/31/25. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For illustrative purposes only. Time periods are based on data from Ned Davis Research. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index, and Bonds are represented by the IA SBBI LT Government Index until 1975 and by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index thereafter. See below for index definitions. Data Source: Ned Davis Research, 2/26.
-48.18%
4.90%
1.62%
29.14%
7.18%
-0.94%
-33.51%
-49.15%
-56.78%
-33.93%
Oil Crisis and Stagflation (1/1/73-9/30/74)
Black Monday and Aftermath (8/26/87-12/4/87)
Dot-Com Bust (3/25/00-10/9/02)
Global Financial Crisis (10/10/07-3/9/09)
COVID-19 Crash
(2/20/20-3/23/20)
Stocks
Bonds
5%
3%
1%
-1%
-3%
-5%
-7%
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
1.36%
As of 12/31/25. Past performance does not guarantee future results. CD rates are proxied by Bankrate’s 12-month CD national average. Inflation rates are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of change in consumer prices as determined by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Cash investments are subject to risk. CDs are insured by the FDIC up to $250,000, offer a fixed rate of return, and are generally designed for short-term savings needs. Data Sources: Bloomberg and Bankrate.com, 2/26.
Consider the Real Return on CDs
Fleeing to the relative safety of CDs during turbulent markets may not help investors reach their long-term goals given their low real return after factoring in inflation.
Navigating Change With Confidence
Stay Curious
Be aware of new technologies and how they might affect your field.
Learn to Adapt
Focus on finding ways to implement new tools and evolving your skill set.
Diversify Your Portfolio
Consider how innovation might impact your investments and seek help from a financial professional.
Change can be unsettling, but it also brings the chance to reinvent ourselves and our communities. By understanding the past and preparing for the future, you can turn uncertainty into opportunity—and help shape the next era of innovation.
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Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Fixed-income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, duration, and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. • US Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. • Small- and mid-cap securities can have greater risks, including liquidity risk, and volatility than large-cap securities. • Different investment styles may go in and out of favor, which may cause underperformance to the broader stock market. • Foreign investments may be more volatile and less liquid than US investments and are subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and adverse political, economic and regulatory developments. These risks may be greater, and include additional risks, for investments in emerging markets. • Value investing style may go in and out of favor, which may cause underperformance to different investing styles. • The securities of large market capitalization companies may underperform other segments of the market. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is composed of securities that cover the US investment-grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.
Bloomberg US Treasury Bill 1–3 Month Index is designed to measure the performance of public obligations of the US Treasury that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to 1 month and less than 3 months.
Cowles Commission Composite Index is a value-weighted index of major US common stocks compiled by the Cowles Commission, commonly used as a proxy for US stock-market performance prior to 1926.
IA SBBI US 30 Day T-Bill Index measures the performance of a single issue of outstanding Treasury bill which matures closest to, buy not beyond, one month from the rebalancing date. The issue is purchased at the beginning of the month and held for a full month; at the end of the month that issue is sold and rolled into a newly selected issue.
IA SBBI LT Government Index measures the performance of a single issue of outstanding US Treasury note with a maturity term of around 5.5 years.
Ibbotson Large Company Stock Index represents the total return of US large capitalization stocks using the S&P 500 Composite Index from 1957 to February 1970 and its predecessor, the S&P 90 Index, for earlier periods.
S&P 90 Index was a market capitalization-weighted index introduced in 1926 that tracked 50 industrial, 20 rail, and 20 utility stocks.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted price index composed of 500 widely held common stocks.
Shiller Long-Term US Government Bond Proxy measures long-term US government bonds using the 10-year US Treasury yield, based on Robert Shiller's historical interest-rate series.
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PHASE 5: 2021- Present
PHASE 4: 2001-2020
PHASE 3: 1974-2000
PHASE 2: 1946-1973
PHASE 1: 1900-1945
PHASE 5: 2021- Present
PHASE 4: 2001-2020
PHASE 3: 1974-2000
PHASE 1: 1900-1945
PHASE 2: 1946-1973
PHASE 5: 2021- Present
PHASE 4: 2001-2020
PHASE 2: 1946-1973
PHASE 1: 1900-1945
PHASE 3: 1974-2000
PHASE 5: 2021- Present
PHASE 3: 1974-2000
PHASE 2: 1946-1973
PHASE 1: 1900-1945
PHASE 4: 2001-2020
Phase 1:
Post-War Prosperity and Social Transformation (1946–1973)
Phase 2:
Globalization, Technology, and Social Change (1974–2000)
Phase 3:
The Digital and Information Age (2001–2020)
Phase 4:
The Era of Uncertainty and Transformation (2021–Present)
Phase 5:
$55,847
$337,223
$182,352
$43,624
5643897
1-year cd minus inflation
s