The Freight Economist
April 2026
Executive summary
Monthly economic and market update
The wholesale
inventories-to-sales ratio reached its lowest level since 2021.
Rates and market conditions
Less-than-truckload
Routing guide trends
Truckload spot
and contract rates
Freight demand
Manufacturing
Retail sales
Retail sales
Routing guide trends
Geographic trends
Trucking volume
The Cass Freight Shipments Index declined by 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, representing a 7.1% year-over-year drop. This decrease was partially attributed to the recent winter storm, weak Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) volumes, tariff-related disruptions, and the trend of private fleet insourcing. However, this result stands in contrast to other volume indicators, such as our Truckload Demand Index (see the Shipper Recommendations section above) and the ATA Truck Tonnage Index, which showed a 0.4% increase in December and was up 0.9% year-over-year.
Intermodal rates
Mazen’s work focuses on analyzing the freight transportation landscape, and producing short- and long-term forecasts based on supply and demand dynamics. He is also a research affiliate with the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Lab at MIT, where he completed his PhD in 2019. His work falls at the intersection of ITS, economic modeling, and analytics.
mdanaf@uberfreight.com
By Mazen Danaf, Senior Economist and Applied Scientist, Uber Freight
Featuring insights and contributions from Uber Freight leadership,
technologists and market specialists.
The tightening market drove a significant increase in shipper costs. The First Tender Acceptance Rate continued its downward trend, dropping to 85% in January from 86% in December and a much higher 92% in November. This decline was mirrored by a decrease in the Route Guide Compliance rate, which fell to 89% from 94% in November. Consequently, the surge in tender rejections resulted in a substantial financial impact on shippers, with the average cost over the primary carrier rising sharply from 1.7% in November to 7% in January—the highest level recorded since 2022.
LTL rates grew 1.8% in March and 7.2% annually, according to the Producer Price Index, reaching an all-time peak approximately 43% higher than pre-pandemic figures. This growth, fueled in part by rising energy costs, reflects a higher level of pricing discipline among LTL carriers compared to the more fragmented truckload sector. While the truckload market has faced a more prolonged recession—with rates currently sitting 24% below 2022 highs and only 16% above pre-pandemic levels—the LTL segment has demonstrated a more robust and rapid recovery.
Less-than-truckload
Winter storms had a clear impact on geographic variations in spot rates. The West, the region least affected by the storms, experienced a typical post-peak season decrease, with spot rates falling by 4.5% in January. This, combined with tough year-over-year comparisons due to last year's import surge in the West region, resulted in weak year-over-year growth, with rates up only 2.5%. In contrast, the Midwest and Northeast, which were most exposed to the storms, saw counterseasonal increases in spot rates, rising by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively. As a result of this storm-driven activity, spot rates in these regions were significantly higher year-over-year in January, up 12%.
Intermodal
Recent spot rate increases were primarily driven by fuel costs, with surcharges rising from 43 cents/mile in February to 65 cents/mile in March, driving rates up by almost 30% year-over-year. While contract rates have seen a modest 5%-6% year-over-year growth (excluding fuel), they are expected to climb further if spot market pressure persists. Shippers should prepare for continued tightening through Q2, especially as seasonal demand in Southern regions follows recent counter-seasonal rate climbs observed in early April.
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Despite increases in both truckload spot and contract rates in January, Uber Freight’s Intermodal Rate Per Load index saw only a modest 0.2% increase. The intermodal market has been generally stable, as this index has remained mostly flat since July 2024, with the exception of a minor rise last January, which still resulted in a 1.7% year-over-year decrease. Intermodal prices typically lag truckload contract rates by about three to six months. Therefore, we should expect future price increases in the intermodal market.
The First Tender Acceptance rate remained steady at 83% in March, while Route Guide Compliance rose slightly from 86% to 87%. The average cost over primary carriers decreased significantly from 8.9% in February to 6.8% in March. These trends not only reflect post-February softening, but also aggressive recent contract repricing to stabilize routing guides and align with the current tight market.
Routing guide trends
Manufacturing activity expanded for the third consecutive month in March.
Manufacturing
Freight supply
Trucking employment
Tractor orders
Additional capacity is in the pipeline but has yet to materialize in the market.
Tractor orders
Long-distance truckload employment continued to decrease despite the recent market tightness.
Trucking employment
The current market tightness is largely supply-driven, characterized by trucking employment hitting its lowest levels in over a decade. Although sleeper tractor orders surged nearly 95% in Q1, this additional capacity has yet to reach the market; March tractor sales actually hit a 16-year low due to sluggish orders last year. Consequently, the industry remains in a period of restricted supply despite a robust pipeline of future equipment.
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Routing guide performance held steady in March, but likely due to significant repricing.
Industrial production of machinery, primary metals, and fabricated metals has remained relatively flat or slightly declined over the past year. A recovery in these sectors seems unlikely in the near future, as orders and shipments of core capital goods—a key indicator of manufacturing activity—have also stagnated.
Orders for core capital goods, which are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, are considered an early indicator of manufacturing activity. Weak orders and shipments in this sector suggest that a broader economic recovery may be delayed.
Industrial equipment and supplies
Automotive
Auto manufacturing has been one of the bright spots in the economy over the past year, driven by pent-up demand and a shortage of vehicles at dealerships. While production rose to meet demand, the market is starting to show signs of saturation, with inventories gradually normalizing and potential glut looming on the wholesale side.
Paper and plastics
Paper and plastics are highly used in the packaging industry, which has been affected by the recent slowdown in food spending after the economy re-opened. In addition, the demand for paper products was already on a downward trajectory due to factors such as digitalization, adoption of alternatives (plastics), and growth of e-commerce. The pandemic further accelerated this decline. Moreover, a surge in downstream inventories led to a slowdown in manufacturers’ demand.
Nondurable consumer goods
Demand for food consumed at home fell from its pandemic highs as the economy re-opened, normalizing back to its pre-pandemic levels. Demand for other consumer goods (such as apparel) continues to be pressured by external competition, slowing consumer demand, and high downstream inventories.
Durable consumer goods
Durable consumer goods such as appliances, furniture, and wood products are affected by the ongoing housing recession. New home sales remain below the 2019 levels, and about 30% below the pandemic peak. Similarly, housing starts are at their lowest level since the beginning of the housing recession, 32% below the 2022 peak.
Intermodal
Shipper and carrier insights
Spotlight: Wholesale inventory trends
Are empty shelves making a comeback in 2026?
Following a 2022 surplus, wholesaler inventories have trended leaner over the last three years. The inventories-to-sales (I/S) ratio decreased steadily from November 2022 through October 2025. This reduction has intensified markedly over the past quarter; between November 2025 and February 2026, the I/S ratio plunged to its lowest point since 2021—the peak period of freight market tightness.
Despite a recent cooling in consumer demand, these thinning upstream inventories may signal a forthcoming increase in trucking volumes, potentially exacerbating current market tightening. The most significant drawdowns relative to demand have occurred within the durable goods sectors, specifically affecting furniture, machinery, metals and minerals, and various other miscellaneous durable products.
Intermodal rates started to increase following rising truckload rates.
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI) rose slightly to 52.7—remaining above the 50.0 expansion threshold. The indices of Backlogs and New Orders both held above 50, signaling a stronger demand outlook. However, the Prices index surged to 78.3, the highest since July 2022, indicating significant persistent inflation in the prices of commodities and raw materials. Respondents attributed rising prices and longer lead times to the Middle East conflict.
Following declines in December and January, real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending on goods saw a slight 0.2% uptick in January. However, the year-over-year growth of 1.2% remains notably below the historical trend of 3% to 4%. This sluggishness is primarily attributed to non-durable goods, which saw a third straight month of decline and a mere 0.9% year-over-year increase. After consistently running above long-term spending trends for nearly five years, goods spending appears to be returning to historical norms.
This slowdown is partly driven by accelerating goods inflation; the PCE price index reported a 1.8% year-over-year rise in goods prices in February, the sharpest since April 2023. Data from the CPI indicates an even more pronounced trend, with commodity prices climbing 3.5% year-over-year in March. Even when stripping away volatile food and energy costs, commodity prices still reflected a 1.2% annual increase.
Spending on goods is slowing down.
The carrier optimism implied by strong tractor orders contrasts with recent labor data: trucking employment declined again in March by 800 jobs. February figures showed a similar downturn in the long-distance truckload sector, with 600 fewer jobs, now sitting at 10.4% below the 2022 peak.
The employment dip observed in March is likely attributable to two primary drivers. First, the market continues to lose drivers due to tightening regulatory requirements. Second, escalating fuel costs are squeezing smaller carriers.
For these smaller carriers, rising diesel prices directly diminish profit margins. They often struggle to offset increased costs through spot rates and usually lack the necessary capital to cover the 30- to 60-day lag between purchasing fuel and receiving payment.
Class 8 tractor orders experienced a 31% decline in March as peak ordering neared completion, a drop largely attributed to seasonal trends; nonetheless, figures were up 85% compared to the previous year. Overall, Q1 orders soared 95% above last year's levels. Following four consecutive months of robust tractor orders, it is evident that carriers are aiming to grow their fleets. This trend suggests increasing confidence that current market tightness will persist.
In contrast, 2026 saw the lowest Class 8 sales for the month of March since 2010, falling 27% year-over-year due to sluggish ordering activity in the prior year.
- Anticipate—and prepare for—further market tightening throughout May and June, driven by DOT week and the surge in summer produce volumes. Historically, spot rates have climbed 8% during this April-to-June window.
- Conduct stress tests on routing guides to prepare for potential exits of smaller or marginal carriers.
- Proactively diversify carrier partnerships on essential lanes to avoid the need for reactive sourcing.
- Regularly assess carrier compliance readiness as a standard component of performance evaluations.
- Develop targeted mini-bids rather than counting on continued market stability.
- Keep a close watch on fuel costs, decouple fuel from linehaul, and implement a fuel matrix wherever feasible.
- Capitalize on the pricing lag between intermodal and truckload sectors by shifting appropriate lanes to intermodal transport.
- Enhance trailer utilization and eliminate inefficiencies by reducing empty miles wherever possible.
LTL rates reached a new all-time high in March.
Truckload spot and contract rates
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The average truckload fuel surcharge rose from 43 cents/mile in February to 65 cents/mile in March. This resulted in spot rates that were 27% higher than last year’s levels for van and 31% for reefer.
Excluding fuel, March saw a minor dip in linehaul rates, though they still showed impressive year-over-year gains of 19% for van and 24% for reefer compared to last year. Counter-seasonally, spot rates began to climb again during the first half of April. Flatbed rates, meanwhile, continued their upward trend due to seasonal demand and an overall tightening market.
Across all categories—van, reefer, and flatbed—contract rates rose by 5% to 6% compared to last year.
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Linehaul spot rates demonstrated significant volatility, particularly in areas hit hardest by February storms. The Midwest and Northeast experienced the most substantial month-over-month drops, falling by 8.8% and 8.1%, respectively. Despite these recent declines, annual comparisons reveal a broader upward trend, with every region posting gains compared to the previous year. These year-over-year increases ranged from 13.3% in the West to 27.3% in the Midwest.
Spot rate increases in March were driven entirely by rising fuel costs.
Average m/m and y/y van spot rate index by origin regions – March
Source: DAT
Driven by rising diesel costs and a strengthening truckload sector, intermodal rates have begun an upward climb. In March, the average rate per mile saw a 7% increase, primarily due to fuel prices, marking a 9.2% rise compared to the previous year. When fuel is excluded, rates still grew by 0.8% for the month and 2.1% year-over-year. Given the continued tightness in the truckload spot market and rising contract prices, intermodal rates are projected to keep rising as well.
Following a counter-seasonal tightening in Q1, shippers should prepare for a tighter Q2 due to rising produce volumes.
Short-term rate outlook
- Demand remains bumpy: Manufacturing is exhibiting early signs of a rebound, yet sectors such as chemicals, packaging, and consumer retail are stagnating. The housing market remains under pressure after mortgage rates climbed through March.
- Supply begins to recover in the second half: Capacity is still decreasing as a result of increased diesel costs and more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, robust tractor orders demonstrate a desire among carriers to grow their operations, with these units anticipated to enter service as sales between late 2026 and the beginning of 2027.
- Long-term Outlook: Following a counter-seasonal tightening in Q1, shippers should prepare for a tighter Q2 due to rising produce volumes. For the remainder of the year, we forecast a 15% to 25% increase in spot rates year-over-year compared to 2025, with contract rates expected to rise by 5% to 10%.
Long-term outlook
Shipper recommendations