KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS REPORT
National
31.3%
After a lackluster start to the year, March signaled a strong start to the busier spring season with the national VODI jumping 31.3 percent from February to March.
Even for March, this year’s reading is strong, and it leaves the VODI down just 4.5 percent from
last March.
Local
30%
Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI reported month-over-month increases of more than 30 percent in March, including a 69 percent increase in San Francisco.
The only exceptions were Chicago and Seattle, which saw modest single-digit increases in their VODIs.
NEXT
Possible reasons for the VODI’s strong performance in March include indications that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy may be running its course due to the banking crisis, as well as more mundane delays in touring from an exceptionally cold and wet February.
March was the sixth consecutive month in which the average VODI on the West Coast was substantially below that of the East Coast, to the tune of 16.6 percent.
16.6%
After a lackluster start to the year, March signaled a strong start to the busier spring season with the national VODI jumping 31.3 percent from February to March. Even for March, this year’s reading is strong, and leaves the VODI down just 4.5 percent from last March.
Explore nationwide trends
Read more local VODI trends
March was the sixth consecutive month in which the average VODI on the West Coast was substantially below that of the East Coast, to the tune of 16.6 percent.
Read VODI impacts on local markets
Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI reported month-over-month increases of more than 30 percent in March, including a 69 percent increase in San Francisco. The only exceptions were Chicago and Seattle, which saw modest single-digit increases in their VODIs.
LOCAL
The spring surge in the VODI was pronounced locally as well. Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI experienced sharp increases in new office demand in excess of 30 percent.
The national VODI jumped 15 points from a level of 48 in February to 63 in March, a 31.3 percent increase.
SEE MORE NATIONAL TRENDS
LOCAL
Chicago rose from 47 in January to 52 in February, a 10.6% increase. While that increase crosses the 10% mark, it reverts a decline from 50 to 47 in the previous month, adding up to fairly little change.
Boston, on the other hand, has been climbing for two consecutive months, from 28 in December to 34 in January and now 40 in February. This adds up to a more sizable 12-point and 42.9% increase over three months, however, it returns Boston’s VODI to the center of a roughly flat 30-65 band. Boston has been fluctuating in this band since May 2020.
1
This refers to the average of the VODI cities’ month-over-month changes using absolute values, so that negative and positive fluctuations don’t cancel each other out.
HEADWINDS / TAILWINDS
The Office Market, Summarized in 90 Seconds
Maximilian Saia, Senior Director of Investor Research at VTS, is here to walk you through the key trends impacting demand in the office sector for April.
READ THE FULL VODI REPORT
NATIONAL
Copyright View the Space, Inc. 2023
BACK TO TOP
METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY
See VODI Methodology
Get a pulse on what’s happening in the market today.
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SEE MORE NATIONAL TRENDS
BOSTON
CHICAGO
BOSTON
CHICAGO
SEE BOSTON'S VODI
NEXT
NEXT
Indications that work-from-home levels may be stabilizing offer a silver lining, removing an element of uncertainty and giving employers confidence to step in from the sidelines.
The month of March tends to see the strongest seasonal surge in new office demand. This year was no exception, and in fact this month’s increase exceeds those of the latest pre-pandemic months of March. In 2018 and 2019, the national VODI increased by 16.7 and 27.9 percent month-over-month in March, respectively. March 2022 saw a 20 percent increase in the VODI. This year’s March increase exceeds all of those precedents. That said, it is only modestly greater than the 2019 surge.
The increase follows a lackluster start of the year in which the VODI performed slightly below its recent pre-pandemic normal. In December and February the VODI’s performance was slightly weaker than it was in 2018 and 2019, and in January it was about on par. The VODI has been especially stable in recent months, maintaining a level of 46 in December and January, and 48 in February.
Taking an annual perspective, despite its strong performance, the March VODI was still down 4.5 percent from its level a year ago. That marks a narrowing of the year-over-year gap, as in February the VODI was down 12.7 percent from a year earlier. However, it indicates that despite this year’s strong March surge, the VODI so far remains on a path of gradual decline which we have dubbed the Stagnation.
Read more
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Read more
Pre-Pandemic
Post-Vaccine Wave
The Crash
The Setback
The Trough
The Stagnation
From January 2018 to March 2020, new office demand fluctuated around a level of 100. In some cities, there was a noticeable downward trend in advance of the pandemic: Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle; in the other cities the VODI was more ambiguous as to whether it was flat or slightly upward trending.
Pre-Pandemic
In Spring 2020 new office demand fell sharply to the “pandemic low.” Nationally, the VODI fell from 102 in March 2020 to 16 in June 2020, a decline of 84 percent. In some cities the sharp fall was followed by a quick v-shaped rise (New York City and Los Angeles); In others, there was a prolonged u-shaped trough (Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and Seattle).
The Crash
From June 2020 through the end of that year, new office demand generally remained very low. In some cities, such as Boston, Chicago, and Washington, D.C., the VODI remained more or less flat during this period. In others, such as San Francisco and Seattle, and most notably in New York City and Chicago, this period saw new office demand begin to recover, foreshadowing the phase that was to follow.
The Trough
After vaccines were introduced in early 2021 and administered to a fast-growing share of the adult population each month, a sense of return-to-normalcy pervaded in spring 2021. Nationally, the VODI rose from 33 in January 2021 to 85 in June 2021 and then plateaued from June to August 2021. The city-specific VODIs behaved similarly, but differed in whether they had a sharp peak or a flat one spread over a few months. Cities also differed in the height that the VODI reached at this stage, with cities whose economies are more remote work-friendly exhibiting substantially lower levels of new office demand.
Post-Vaccine Wave
In August 2021 the VODI began falling sharply again, until October. It was a more limited drop than “the crash” in spring 2020, taking the national VODI from 87 in August 2021 to 61 in October 2021 (down 30%), but it was sharp nonetheless. The data at hand do not allow us to disentangle the causes, but the timing suggests that two factors were at play:
(i) pent-up demand that was waiting for pandemic conditions to improve and/or uncertainty to ease before introducing new requirements likely fueled the initial post-vaccine wave, and may have been spent by at this point;
(ii) the emergence of the delta variant reignited concerns around COVID-19 and elevated the degree of uncertainty, causing potential new demand to stay on the sidelines. The gap between the more and less remote work friendly groups of cities remained intact throughout the setback stage. Finally, the setback occurred in Washington, D.C., sooner than it did in any other market.
The Setback
Despite some seasonal buoyancy in March 2022, the VODI has been on a downward trend since October 2021. Nationally, since October 2021 the VODI has ranged from a high of 67 (May ‘22) to a low of 46 (January ‘23). The city-specific VODIs have essentially done the same, despite more pronounced fluctuations, especially in July. New office demand during this period has been stalled by concerns over new COVID variants, a shifting balance between remote and on-site work, and more recently by concerns around economic uncertainty. It now appears to be gradually settling into a new, post-pandemic normal dictated by a post-pandemic, expanded work-from-home reality.
The Stagnation
Indications that the Federal Reserve’s current streak of interest rate hikes is finally running its course.
Office tours that would have taken place in February shifted to March due to inclement winter weather.
•
•
While the VODI’s surge in March can largely be chalked-up to a seasonal trend, with new demand for office space surging as it normally does at the start of spring, there are several possible reasons why its performance this March was particularly strong. These include:
Economic and social impacts on VODI
Possible reasons for the VODI’s strong performance in March include indications that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy may be running its course due to the banking crisis, as well as more mundane delays in touring from an exceptionally cold and wet February.
Could interest rates stop rising soon?
While it is difficult to anticipate the economic events of the coming months and the Fed’s reaction to them, there are reasons to think that the Fed’s streak of rate hikes may be running its course.
First among these is the banking crisis of recent weeks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which has since affected some additional banks. While the crisis is ostensibly unwelcome news for the economy, it is at least in part a consequence of rising interest rates, and it provides a reason for the Fed to temper or halt the upward trajectory of rates. It also gives the Fed cover, i.e. new information that justifies the Fed in deviating from its past promises to continue raising rates without hurting its credibility.
If interest rates were to stop rising or even start declining, all else equal that would help employers by reducing their cost of capital, with likely positive implications for their staffing and decisions around office space. A cooler labor market shifts bargaining power back into the hands of employers, signaling what may become a more meaningful return to the office.
In addition, March’s official job growth numbers were consistent with a cooling labor market.
February saw winter weather lash both coasts, with a polar vortex in the Northeast and a series of unusually prolific rainstorms on the West Coast, as well as severe thunderstorms in the South and Midwest.
As mundane as it may seem, there is no ruling out that these weather events prevented some prospective tenants from starting to tour office spaces in February, shifting some new demand into March.
And the weather in February did not help:
SEE MORE NATIONAL TRENDS
Explore nationwide trends
Indications that work from home levels may be stabilizing offer a silver lining, removing an element of uncertainty and giving employers confidence to step in from
the sidelines.
New survey data suggests that work-from-home levels may have stabilized, at least temporarily, and there is growing recognition among employers that they are “stabilizing to a post pandemic norm”.
The following chart reports the six-month trailing average of the share of workdays worked from home across all sectors of the economy, including non-office-using ones. Lower levels indicate less work-from-home.
In broad brushstrokes, work-from-home peaked early in the pandemic and despite a temporary rebound in mid and late 2021 as consecutive new strains of COVID-19 emerged, work-from-home has generally been declining since then. However, the latest data suggest that work-from-home may have hit a floor in the six months ending in November 2022, and has since plateaued or even slightly risen.
Given that current work-from-home levels are much higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic, that may not seem like good news for the office industry. However, if current levels prove persistent, that will at least remove an element of uncertainty from employers’ office use plans, giving them more confidence to move forward and finally take their needs to
the market.
SEE LOCAL TRENDS
NEW YORK CITY
NEW YORK CITY
SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco stands out with a 69 percent leap in new office demand. While this leap also reflects the low base from which its rising – in February San Francisco’s VODI stood at 29, less than a third of its 2018-2019 level – it is nevertheless a very substantial boost in the city’s office demand. That leap owes in large part to an increase in tours of large spaces, greater than 50,000 square feet.
New York City and San Francisco are seeing higher levels of new office demand than they have in a while. With the exception of one monthly reading - 51 in June 2022 - San Francisco’s current VODI of 49 is now the highest it has been since September 2021.
Similarly, with the exception of one monthly reading of 80 in May 2022, New York City’s current VODI of 76 is the highest it has been since September 2021 (although unlike San Francisco, it also equalled its current level of 76 in March 2022).
Boston is also nearing its peak from the Post-Vaccine Wave, although that peak was more muted than that of most other VODI cities.
In contrast, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., despite substantial VODI increases in March, remain well below their most recent peaks.
Chicago and Seattle were the exceptions in March, as they experienced only modest single-digit gains in their VODIs. Seattle’s VODI increased 6.5 percent month-over-month, and Chicago’s VODI just 3.8 percent. While all other VODI cities saw increased new demand in both the mid and large space categories, Seattle saw a slight decline in the mid-sized category, and Chicago saw a continued decline in the large space category, extending a stretch of lackluster performance.
SEE MORE LOCAL TRENDS
The gap during this period has ranged from a low of 11.4 percent in January 2023 to a high of 20 percent in November 2022, and has averaged 16.6 percent over the six-month period. While the gap may end up being short-lived, it is worth noting the set of factors that are likely driving it.
Part of the story is a sectoral employment one. The tech-heavy San Francisco and Seattle metro areas have seen more considerable declines in job postings over the last year than the metros corresponding to the other VODI cities. To a large extent, the weaker West Coast VODI simply reflects a weaker labor market in those cities.
At the same time, New York City’s VODI, which is helping pull the East Coast VODI upward, probably owes much of its strength to New York City’s dense urban fabric, whose sheer mass is unique among all U.S. cities. Different from other U.S. cities, New Yorkers generally lack ample space for a home office, and enjoy the benefit of a comprehensive public transit system, both of which lend themselves to a return to the office. In addition, the New York City’s office market accommodates a more diverse array of tenant sectors than just about any other market in the nation.
Separating the VODI cities into those on the West Coast - Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle - from those on the East Coast (lumping in Chicago), tells an interesting story. From January 2021 to September 2022, despite some fluctuations, the East and West Coast average VODIs held approximately similar levels.
However, from October 2022 to March, i.e. six consecutive months and counting, the average West Coast VODI has been consistently and substantially lower than that of the East Coast.
NATIONAL
NATIONAL
LOCAL
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VTS Office
Demand Index
(VODI)
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APRIL 2023
National
Local
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS REPORT
After a lackluster start to the year, March signaled a strong start to the busier spring season with the national VODI jumping 31.3 percent from February to March.
Even for March, this year’s reading is strong, and it leaves the VODI down just 4.5 percent from
last March.
NEXT
31.3%
Possible reasons for the VODI’s strong performance in March include indications that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy may be running its course due to the banking crisis, as well as more mundane delays in touring from an exceptionally cold and wet February.
NEXT
Indications that work-from-home levels may be stabilizing offer a silver lining, removing an element of uncertainty and giving employers confidence to step in from the sidelines.
30%
Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI reported month-over-month increases of more than 30 percent in March, including a 69 percent increase in San Francisco.
The only exceptions were Chicago and Seattle, which saw modest single-digit increases in their VODIs.
NEXT
March was the sixth consecutive month in which the average VODI on the West Coast was substantially below that of the East Coast, to the tune of 16.6 percent.
16.6%
Get a pulse on what’s happening in the market today.
See VODI Methodology
Learn more about VTS Data
METHODOLOGY
Read more
Pre-Pandemic
Read more
The Crash
Read more
The Trough
Read more
Post-Vaccine Wave
Read more
The Setback
Read more
The Stagnation
Jan '18
Mar '20
Jun '20
Jan '21
Aug '21
Oct '21
Feb '23
New Demand for Office Space
Over the Pandemic: An Illustration
From January 2018 to March 2020, new office demand fluctuated around a level of 100. In some cities, there was a noticeable downward trend in advance of the pandemic: Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle; in the other cities the VODI was more ambiguous as to whether it was flat or slightly upward trending.
Pre-Pandemic
In Spring 2020 new office demand fell sharply to the “pandemic low.” Nationally, the VODI fell from 102 in March 2020 to 16 in June 2020, a decline of 84 percent. In some cities the sharp fall was followed by a quick v-shaped rise (New York City and Los Angeles); In others, there was a prolonged u-shaped trough (Washington, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and Seattle).
The Crash
From June 2020 through the end of that year, new office demand generally remained very low. In some cities, such as Boston, Chicago and Washington, D.C., the VODI remained more or less flat during this period. In others, such as San Francisco and Seattle, and most notably in New York City and Chicago, this period saw new office demand begin to recover, foreshadowing the phase that was to follow.
The Trough
After vaccines were introduced in early 2021 and administered to a fast-growing share of the adult population each month, a sense of return-to-normalcy pervaded in spring 2021. Nationally, the VODI rose from 33 in January 2021 to 85 in June 2021 and then plateaued from June to August 2021. The city-specific VODIs behaved similarly, but differed in whether they had a sharp peak or a flat one spread over a few months. Cities also differed in the height that the VODI reached at this stage, with cities whose economies are more remote work-friendly exhibiting substantially lower levels of new office demand.
Post-Vaccine Wave
In August 2021 the VODI began falling sharply again, until October. It was a more limited drop than “the crash” in spring 2020, taking the national VODI from 87 in August 2021 to 61 in October 2021 (down 30%), but it was sharp nonetheless. The data at hand do not allow us to disentangle the causes, but the timing suggests that two factors were at play:
(i) pent-up demand that was waiting for pandemic conditions to improve and/or uncertainty to ease before introducing new requirements likely fueled the initial post-vaccine wave, and may have been spent by at this point;
(ii) the emergence of the delta variant reignited concerns around COVID-19 and elevated the degree of uncertainty, causing potential new demand to stay on the sidelines. The gap between the more and less remote work friendly groups of cities remained intact throughout the setback stage. Finally, the setback occurred in Washington, D.C., sooner than it did in any other market.
The Setback
Despite some seasonal buoyancy in March 2022, the VODI has been on a downward trend since October 2021. Nationally, since October 2021 the VODI has ranged from a high of 67 (May ‘22) to a low of 46 (January ‘23). The city-specific VODIs have essentially done the same, despite more pronounced fluctuations, especially in July. New office demand during this period has been stalled by concerns over new COVID variants, a shifting balance between remote and on-site work, and more recently by concerns around economic uncertainty. It now appears to be gradually settling into a new, post-pandemic normal dictated by a post-pandemic, expanded work-from-home reality.
The Stagnation
Explore nationwide trends
After a lackluster start to the year, March signaled a strong start to the busier spring season with the national VODI jumping 31.3 percent from February to March. Even for March, this year’s reading is strong, and leaves the VODI down just 4.5 percent from last March.
NATIONAL
The national VODI jumped 15 points from a level of 48 in February to 63 in March, a 31.3 percent increase.
The increase follows a lackluster start of the year in which the VODI performed slightly below its recent pre-pandemic normal. In December and February the VODI’s performance was slightly weaker than it was in 2018 and 2019, and in January it was about on par. The VODI has been especially stable in recent months, maintaining a level of 46 in December and January, and 48 in February.
Taking an annual perspective, despite its strong performance, the March VODI was still down 4.5 percent from its level a year ago. That marks a narrowing of the year-over-year gap, as in February the VODI was down 12.7 percent from a year earlier. However, it indicates that despite this year’s strong March surge, the VODI so far remains on a path of gradual decline which we have dubbed the Stagnation.
The month of March tends to see the strongest seasonal surge in new office demand. This year was no exception, and in fact this month’s increase exceeds those of the latest pre-pandemic months of March. In 2018 and 2019, the national VODI increased by 16.7 and 27.9 percent month-over-month in March, respectively. March 2022 saw a 20 percent increase in the VODI. This year’s March increase exceeds all of those precedents. That said, it is only modestly greater than the 2019 surge.
SEE MORE NATIONAL TRENDS
SEE MORE NATIONAL TRENDS
Indications that the Federal Reserve’s current streak of interest rate hikes is finally running its course.
Office tours that would have taken place in February shifted to March due to inclement winter weather.
•
•
While the VODI’s surge in March can largely be chalked-up to a seasonal trend, with new demand for office space surging as it normally does at the start of spring, there are several possible reasons why its performance this March was particularly strong. These include:
February saw winter weather lash both coasts, with a polar vortex in the Northeast and a series of unusually prolific rainstorms on the West Coast, as well as severe thunderstorms in the South and Midwest.
As mundane as it may seem, there is no ruling out that these weather events prevented some prospective tenants from starting to tour office spaces in February, shifting some new demand into March.
While it is difficult to anticipate the economic events of the coming months and the Fed’s reaction to them, there are reasons to think that the Fed’s streak of rate hikes may be running its course.
First among these is the banking crisis of recent weeks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which has since affected some additional banks. While the crisis is ostensibly unwelcome news for the economy, it is at least in part a consequence of rising interest rates, and it provides a reason for the Fed to temper or halt the upward trajectory of rates. It also gives the Fed cover, i.e. new information that justifies the Fed in deviating from its past promises to continue raising rates without hurting its credibility.
If interest rates were to stop rising or even start declining, all else equal that would help employers by reducing their cost of capital, with likely positive implications for their staffing and decisions around office space. A cooler labor market shifts bargaining power back into the hands of employers, signaling what may become a more meaningful return to the office.
In addition, March’s official job growth numbers were consistent with a cooling labor market.
Could interest rates stop rising soon?
And the weather in February did not help:
Economic and social impacts on VODI
Possible reasons for the VODI’s strong performance in March include indications that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy may be running its course due to the banking crisis, as well as more mundane delays in touring from an exceptionally cold and wet February.
NATIONAL
SEE LOCAL TRENDS
New survey data suggests that work-from-home levels may have stabilized, at least temporarily, and there is growing recognition among employers that they are “stabilizing to a post pandemic norm”.
The following chart reports the six-month trailing average of the share of workdays worked from home across all sectors of the economy, including non-office-using ones. Lower levels indicate less work-from-home.
In broad brushstrokes, work-from-home peaked early in the pandemic and despite a temporary rebound in mid and late 2021 as consecutive new strains of COVID-19 emerged, work-from-home has generally been declining since then. However, the latest data suggest that work-from-home may have hit a floor in the six months ending in November 2022, and has since plateaued or even slightly risen.
Given that current work-from-home levels are much higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic, that may not seem like good news for the office industry. However, if current levels prove persistent, that will at least remove an element of uncertainty from employers’ office use plans, giving them more confidence to move forward and finally take their needs to the market.
Explore nationwide trends
Indications that work from home levels may be stabilizing offer a silver lining, removing an element of uncertainty and giving employers confidence to step in from the sidelines.
NATIONAL
Read VODI impacts on local markets
Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI reported month-over-month increases of more than 30 percent in March, including a 69 percent increase in San Francisco. The only exceptions were Chicago and Seattle, which saw modest single-digit increases in their VODIs.
LOCAL
The spring surge in the VODI was pronounced locally as well. Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI experienced sharp increases in new office demand in excess of 30 percent.
SEE MORE LOCAL TRENDS
San Francisco stands out with a 69 percent leap in new office demand. While this leap also reflects the low base from which its rising – in February San Francisco’s VODI stood at 29, less than a third of its 2018-2019 level – it is nevertheless a very substantial boost in the city’s office demand. That leap owes in large part to an increase in tours of large spaces, greater than 50,000 square feet.
New York City and San Francisco are seeing higher levels of new office demand than they have in a while. With the exception of one monthly reading - 51 in June 2022 - San Francisco’s current VODI of 49 is now the highest it has been since September 2021.
Similarly, with the exception of one monthly reading of 80 in May 2022, New York City’s current VODI of 76 is the highest it has been since September 2021 (although unlike San Francisco, it also equalled its current level of 76 in March 2022).
Boston is also nearing its peak from the Post-Vaccine Wave, although that peak was more muted than that of most other VODI cities.
In contrast, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., despite substantial VODI increases in March, remain well below their most recent peaks.
Chicago and Seattle were the exceptions in March, as they experienced only modest single-digit gains in their VODIs. Seattle’s VODI increased 6.5 percent month-over-month, and Chicago’s VODI just 3.8 percent. While all other VODI cities saw increased new demand in both the mid and large space categories, Seattle saw a slight decline in the mid-sized category, and Chicago saw a continued decline in the large space category, extending a stretch of lackluster performance.
This refers to the average of the VODI cities’ month-over-month changes using absolute values, so that negative and positive fluctuations don’t cancel each other out.
1
NEW YORK CITY
NEW YORK CITY
SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO
Boston, on the other hand, has been climbing for two consecutive months, from 28 in December to 34 in January and now 40 in February. This adds up to a more sizable 12-point and 42.9% increase over three months, however, it returns Boston’s VODI to the center of a roughly flat 30-65 band. Boston has been fluctuating in this band since May 2020.
SEE MORE NATIONAL TRENDS
Chicago rose from 47 in January to 52 in February, a 10.6% increase. While that increase crosses the 10% mark, it reverts a decline from 50 to 47 in the previous month, adding up to fairly little change.
SEE BOSTON'S VODI
BOSTON
BOSTON
CHICAGO
CHICAGO
LOCAL
The gap during this period has ranged from a low of 11.4 percent in January 2023 to a high of 20 percent in November 2022, and has averaged 16.6 percent over the six-month period. While the gap may end up being short-lived, it is worth noting the set of factors that are likely driving it.
Part of the story is a sectoral employment one. The tech-heavy San Francisco and Seattle metro areas have seen more considerable declines in job postings over the last year than the metros corresponding to the other VODI cities. To a large extent, the weaker West Coast VODI simply reflects a weaker labor market in those cities.
At the same time, New York City’s VODI, which is helping pull the East Coast VODI upward, probably owes much of its strength to New York City’s dense urban fabric, whose sheer mass is unique among all U.S. cities. Different from other U.S. cities, New Yorkers generally lack ample space for a home office, and enjoy the benefit of a comprehensive public transit system, both of which lend themselves to a return to the office. In addition, the New York City’s office market accommodates a more diverse array of tenant sectors than just about any other market in the nation.
Separating the VODI cities into those on the West Coast - Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle - from those on the East Coast (lumping in Chicago), tells an interesting story. From January 2021 to September 2022, despite some fluctuations, the East and West Coast average VODIs held approximately similar levels.
However, from October 2022 to March, i.e. six consecutive months and counting, the average West Coast VODI has been consistently and substantially lower than that of the East Coast.
Read more local VODI trends
March was the sixth consecutive month in which the average VODI on the West Coast was substantially below that of the East Coast, to the tune of 16.6 percent.
LOCAL
READ THE FULL VODI REPORT
Maximilian Saia, Senior Director of Investor Research at VTS, is here to walk you through the key trends impacting demand in the office sector for April.
The Office Market, Summarized in 60 Seconds
Copyright View the Space, Inc. 2023
BACK TO TOP
METHODOLOGY
VIEW FULLSCREEN
SCROLL DOWN
VTS Office
Demand Index
(VODI)
MONTHLY REPORT
National
Local
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS REPORT
After a lackluster start to the year, March signaled a strong start to the busier spring season with the national VODI jumping 31.3 percent from February to March.
Even for March, this year’s reading is strong, and it leaves the VODI down just 4.5 percent from
last March.
NEXT
31.3%
Possible reasons for the VODI’s strong performance in March include indications that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy may be running its course due to the banking crisis, as well as more mundane delays in touring from an exceptionally cold and wet February.
NEXT
Indications that work-from-home levels may be stabilizing offer a silver lining, removing an element of uncertainty and giving employers confidence to step in from the sidelines.
30%
Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI reported month-over-month increases of more than 30 percent in March, including a 69 percent increase in San Francisco.
The only exceptions were Chicago and Seattle, which saw modest single-digit increases in their VODIs.
NEXT
March was the sixth consecutive month in which the average VODI on the West Coast was substantially below that of the East Coast, to the tune of 16.6 percent.
16.6%
Get a pulse on what’s happening in the market today.
See VODI Methodology
Learn more about VTS Data
METHODOLOGY
Read more
Pre-Pandemic
Read more
The Crash
Read more
The Trough
Read more
Post-Vaccine Wave
Read more
The Setback
Read more
The Stagnation
Jan '18
Mar '20
Jun '20
Jan '21
Aug '21
Oct '21
Feb '23
New Demand for Office Space
Over the Pandemic: An Illustration
From January 2018 to March 2020, new office demand fluctuated around a level of 100. In some cities, there was a noticeable downward trend in advance of the pandemic: Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle; in the other cities the VODI was more ambiguous as to whether it was flat or slightly upward trending.
Pre-Pandemic
In Spring 2020 new office demand fell sharply to the “pandemic low.” Nationally, the VODI fell from 102 in March 2020 to 16 in June 2020, a decline of 84 percent. In some cities the sharp fall was followed by a quick v-shaped rise (New York City and Los Angeles); In others, there was a prolonged u-shaped trough (Washington, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and Seattle).
The Crash
From June 2020 through the end of that year, new office demand generally remained very low. In some cities, such as Boston, Chicago and Washington, D.C., the VODI remained more or less flat during this period. In others, such as San Francisco and Seattle, and most notably in New York City and Chicago, this period saw new office demand begin to recover, foreshadowing the phase that was to follow.
The Trough
After vaccines were introduced in early 2021 and administered to a fast-growing share of the adult population each month, a sense of return-to-normalcy pervaded in spring 2021. Nationally, the VODI rose from 33 in January 2021 to 85 in June 2021 and then plateaued from June to August 2021. The city-specific VODIs behaved similarly, but differed in whether they had a sharp peak or a flat one spread over a few months. Cities also differed in the height that the VODI reached at this stage, with cities whose economies are more remote work-friendly exhibiting substantially lower levels of new office demand.
Post-Vaccine Wave
In August 2021 the VODI began falling sharply again, until October. It was a more limited drop than “the crash” in spring 2020, taking the national VODI from 87 in August 2021 to 61 in October 2021 (down 30%), but it was sharp nonetheless. The data at hand do not allow us to disentangle the causes, but the timing suggests that two factors were at play:
(i) pent-up demand that was waiting for pandemic conditions to improve and/or uncertainty to ease before introducing new requirements likely fueled the initial post-vaccine wave, and may have been spent by at this point;
(ii) the emergence of the delta variant reignited concerns around COVID-19 and elevated the degree of uncertainty, causing potential new demand to stay on the sidelines. The gap between the more and less remote work friendly groups of cities remained intact throughout the setback stage. Finally, the setback occurred in Washington, D.C., sooner than it did in any other market.
The Setback
Despite some seasonal buoyancy in March 2022, the VODI has been on a downward trend since October 2021. Nationally, since October 2021 the VODI has ranged from a high of 67 (May ‘22) to a low of 46 (January ‘23). The city-specific VODIs have essentially done the same, despite more pronounced fluctuations, especially in July. New office demand during this period has been stalled by concerns over new COVID variants, a shifting balance between remote and on-site work, and more recently by concerns around economic uncertainty. It now appears to be gradually settling into a new, post-pandemic normal dictated by a post-pandemic, expanded work-from-home reality.
The Stagnation
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After a lackluster start to the year, March signaled a strong start to the busier spring season with the national VODI jumping 31.3 percent from February to March. Even for March, this year’s reading is strong, and leaves the VODI down just 4.5 percent from last March.
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The national VODI jumped 15 points from a level of 48 in February to 63 in March, a 31.3 percent increase.
The increase follows a lackluster start of the year in which the VODI performed slightly below its recent pre-pandemic normal. In December and February the VODI’s performance was slightly weaker than it was in 2018 and 2019, and in January it was about on par. The VODI has been especially stable in recent months, maintaining a level of 46 in December and January, and 48 in February.
Taking an annual perspective, despite its strong performance, the March VODI was still down 4.5 percent from its level a year ago. That marks a narrowing of the year-over-year gap, as in February the VODI was down 12.7 percent from a year earlier. However, it indicates that despite this year’s strong March surge, the VODI so far remains on a path of gradual decline which we have dubbed the Stagnation.
The month of March tends to see the strongest seasonal surge in new office demand. This year was no exception, and in fact this month’s increase exceeds those of the latest pre-pandemic months of March. In 2018 and 2019, the national VODI increased by 16.7 and 27.9 percent month-over-month in March, respectively. March 2022 saw a 20 percent increase in the VODI. This year’s March increase exceeds all of those precedents. That said, it is only modestly greater than the 2019 surge.
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Indications that the Federal Reserve’s current streak of interest rate hikes is finally running its course.
Office tours that would have taken place in February shifted to March due to inclement winter weather.
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While the VODI’s surge in March can largely be chalked-up to a seasonal trend, with new demand for office space surging as it normally does at the start of spring, there are several possible reasons why its performance this March was particularly strong. These include:
February saw winter weather lash both coasts, with a polar vortex in the Northeast and a series of unusually prolific rainstorms on the West Coast, as well as severe thunderstorms in the South and Midwest.
As mundane as it may seem, there is no ruling out that these weather events prevented some prospective tenants from starting to tour office spaces in February, shifting some new demand into March.
While it is difficult to anticipate the economic events of the coming months and the Fed’s reaction to them, there are reasons to think that the Fed’s streak of rate hikes may be running its course.
First among these is the banking crisis of recent weeks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which has since affected some additional banks. While the crisis is ostensibly unwelcome news for the economy, it is at least in part a consequence of rising interest rates, and it provides a reason for the Fed to temper or halt the upward trajectory of rates. It also gives the Fed cover, i.e. new information that justifies the Fed in deviating from its past promises to continue raising rates without hurting its credibility.
If interest rates were to stop rising or even start declining, all else equal that would help employers by reducing their cost of capital, with likely positive implications for their staffing and decisions around office space. A cooler labor market shifts bargaining power back into the hands of employers, signaling what may become a more meaningful return to the office.
In addition, March’s official job growth numbers were consistent with a cooling labor market.
Could interest rates stop rising soon?
And the weather in February did not help:
Economic and social impacts on VODI
Possible reasons for the VODI’s strong performance in March include indications that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy may be running its course due to the banking crisis, as well as more mundane delays in touring from an exceptionally cold and wet February.
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New survey data suggests that work-from-home levels may have stabilized, at least temporarily, and there is growing recognition among employers that they are “stabilizing to a post pandemic norm”.
The following chart reports the six-month trailing average of the share of workdays worked from home across all sectors of the economy, including non-office-using ones. Lower levels indicate less work-from-home.
In broad brushstrokes, work-from-home peaked early in the pandemic and despite a temporary rebound in mid and late 2021 as consecutive new strains of COVID-19 emerged, work-from-home has generally been declining since then. However, the latest data suggest that work-from-home may have hit a floor in the six months ending in November 2022, and has since plateaued or even slightly risen.
Given that current work-from-home levels are much higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic, that may not seem like good news for the office industry. However, if current levels prove persistent, that will at least remove an element of uncertainty from employers’ office use plans, giving them more confidence to move forward and finally take their needs to the market.
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Indications that work from home levels may be stabilizing offer a silver lining, removing an element of uncertainty and giving employers confidence to step in from the sidelines.
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Read VODI impacts on local markets
Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI reported month-over-month increases of more than 30 percent in March, including a 69 percent increase in San Francisco. The only exceptions were Chicago and Seattle, which saw modest single-digit increases in their VODIs.
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The spring surge in the VODI was pronounced locally as well. Five of the seven cities tracked by the VODI experienced sharp increases in new office demand in excess of 30 percent.
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San Francisco stands out with a 69 percent leap in new office demand. While this leap also reflects the low base from which its rising – in February San Francisco’s VODI stood at 29, less than a third of its 2018-2019 level – it is nevertheless a very substantial boost in the city’s office demand. That leap owes in large part to an increase in tours of large spaces, greater than 50,000 square feet.
New York City and San Francisco are seeing higher levels of new office demand than they have in a while. With the exception of one monthly reading - 51 in June 2022 - San Francisco’s current VODI of 49 is now the highest it has been since September 2021.
Similarly, with the exception of one monthly reading of 80 in May 2022, New York City’s current VODI of 76 is the highest it has been since September 2021 (although unlike San Francisco, it also equalled its current level of 76 in March 2022).
Boston is also nearing its peak from the Post-Vaccine Wave, although that peak was more muted than that of most other VODI cities.
In contrast, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., despite substantial VODI increases in March, remain well below their most recent peaks.
Chicago and Seattle were the exceptions in March, as they experienced only modest single-digit gains in their VODIs. Seattle’s VODI increased 6.5 percent month-over-month, and Chicago’s VODI just 3.8 percent. While all other VODI cities saw increased new demand in both the mid and large space categories, Seattle saw a slight decline in the mid-sized category, and Chicago saw a continued decline in the large space category, extending a stretch of lackluster performance.
This refers to the average of the VODI cities’ month-over-month changes using absolute values, so that negative and positive fluctuations don’t cancel each other out.
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NEW YORK CITY
NEW YORK CITY
SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO
Boston, on the other hand, has been climbing for two consecutive months, from 28 in December to 34 in January and now 40 in February. This adds up to a more sizable 12-point and 42.9% increase over three months, however, it returns Boston’s VODI to the center of a roughly flat 30-65 band. Boston has been fluctuating in this band since May 2020.
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Chicago rose from 47 in January to 52 in February, a 10.6% increase. While that increase crosses the 10% mark, it reverts a decline from 50 to 47 in the previous month, adding up to fairly little change.
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BOSTON
BOSTON
CHICAGO
CHICAGO
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The gap during this period has ranged from a low of 11.4 percent in January 2023 to a high of 20 percent in November 2022, and has averaged 16.6 percent over the six-month period. While the gap may end up being short-lived, it is worth noting the set of factors that are likely driving it.
Part of the story is a sectoral employment one. The tech-heavy San Francisco and Seattle metro areas have seen more considerable declines in job postings over the last year than the metros corresponding to the other VODI cities. To a large extent, the weaker West Coast VODI simply reflects a weaker labor market in those cities.
At the same time, New York City’s VODI, which is helping pull the East Coast VODI upward, probably owes much of its strength to New York City’s dense urban fabric, whose sheer mass is unique among all U.S. cities. Different from other U.S. cities, New Yorkers generally lack ample space for a home office, and enjoy the benefit of a comprehensive public transit system, both of which lend themselves to a return to the office. In addition, the New York City’s office market accommodates a more diverse array of tenant sectors than just about any other market in the nation.
Separating the VODI cities into those on the West Coast - Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle - from those on the East Coast (lumping in Chicago), tells an interesting story. From January 2021 to September 2022, despite some fluctuations, the East and West Coast average VODIs held approximately similar levels.
However, from October 2022 to March, i.e. six consecutive months and counting, the average West Coast VODI has been consistently and substantially lower than that of the East Coast.
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March was the sixth consecutive month in which the average VODI on the West Coast was substantially below that of the East Coast, to the tune of 16.6 percent.
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Maximilian Saia, Senior Director of Investor Research at VTS, is here to walk you through the key trends impacting demand in the office sector for April.
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