SME COMPETITIVENESS OUTLOOK 2020
With shutdowns being gradually lifted in China, Europe and elsewhere, business owners and policymakers are shifting their focus towards the post-pandemic world. Companies, business support organizations and governments will have to adapt to this ‘new normal’ in the months and years ahead.
The new normal will be resilient, digital, inclusive and sustainable.
Preparing for
the ‘new normal’
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And
The
The pandemic hit the world when trade was already in turmoil. Collected data shows that world trade dropped in all quarters of 2019, with declines intensifying in early 2020 in a ripple effect that started in China.
China, the EU and the US account for over 60% of supply chain trade. This has had an impact on economies everywhere.
International trade in turmoil
COVID-19 has given governments around the globe the challenge of directing essential goods, such as food and medical equipment, where they
are most needed to address the immediate health crisis. High demand for certain sanitary products, supply chain disruptions and logistical constraints made this difficult. Fearful that their populations would be unable to obtain goods needed to cope with the immediate health crisis, many governments imposed new trade measures on these items.
Export bans and other restrictions cover 73% of global trade in
COVID-19-related goods.
Essential goods: supply chains
One-fifth of SMEs are at risk
of shutting down permanently within three months.
Lockdown hits small businesses
Highlights
Small companies tend to be vulnerable during an economic crisis, in part because they have fewer resources with which to adapt to a changing context. The ITC COVID-19 Business Impact Survey gathered evidence
on how the pandemic affected 4,467 companies in 132 countries.
Analysis of this data, collected from 21 April–2 June 2020, shows that the pandemic has strongly affected 55% of respondents. Nearly two-thirds
of micro and small firms reported that the crisis strongly affected their business operations, compared with about 40% of large companies.
If the world seizes the opportunities presented by this crisis to address fundamental challenges in the global economy, the new normal can be one that emphasizes resilience.
Small businesses are reopening into a world that has been reshaped by
the pandemic. They do not operate in a void: they operate in a business ecosystem that will influence whether they sink, or swim, in the
new normal.
Monthly figures show that Chinese exports fell about 21% in February 2020 from a year earlier. Although Chinese exports recovered slightly in March, the pandemic began to hit exports from other countries from several sectors. Travel and tourism are among the most affected ones. The World Tourism Organization predicts that international tourist arrivals could decline 60%-80% in 2020 from 2019.
This report contains country profiles with data on supply chain trade. The profiles show the projected loss of exports and imports in 2020, due to industrial supply chain disruption, caused by lockdowns in China, the European Union and the United States.
International trade in turmoil
Essential goods: supply chains
Lockdown hits small businesses
Surviving the pandemic
Preparing for the ‘new normal’
Summaries in:
Country profiles
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COVID-19: The Great
Lockdown and its Impact
on Small Business
SME COMPETITIVENESS OUTLOOK 2020
For more information on ITC’s SME Competitiveness
Outlook for 2020, download the full report.
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The Great Lockdown
Great
Lockdown
SMEs and youth-led firms are at higher risk of permanently shutting down in coming months
Full PDF Report
Country Profiles
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Strongly affected
Moderately affected
Slightly affected
Not affected
Large
Medium
Small
Micro
Total
Smaller companies see larger impact from COVID-19
SMEs and youth-led firms risk shutting down in the next months
$22.1b
Share of respondents
5% - 9%
10% - 14%
15% - 19%
>20%
All stats
<2%
2% - 4%
2%
Slump forecast in exports of manufacturing inputs for supply chains
Colours indicate the share of supply chain exports in the total exports of the country. The software generating maps does not apply United Nations definitions of national borders.
No data
North America
$2.4b
South and
Central America
$2.4b
Africa
$26.8b
Europe
$71.4b
Asia
$0.8b
Oceania
All stats
And its Impact on Small Business
its
Impact
on
Small
Business
SMECO 2020 focuses on the supply chain disruption caused by the factory shutdowns in China, Europe and the United States,
in response to COVID-19. The profiles comprise 85 economies,
for which 2019 trade data and GDP data were available at
the time of analysis in April 2020. Below, we present a few
selected cases.
Respondents were asked ‘How have your business operations been affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic?’ and ‘How many full-time employees does the business have?’
Definitions: Microenterprises, up to 4 employees; small firms,
5-19 employees; medium-sized firms, 20-99 employees; large firms, 100 or more employees. Data on 2170 businesses in 121 countries. Response rates vary across countries and regions.
ITC calculations based on ITC COVID-19 Business Impact Survey. Data collected 21 April – 2 June 2020.
Source:
All stats
Strongly affected
Moderately affected
Slightly affected
Not affected
Respondents were asked ‘Do you think there is a risk that your business will permanently shut down because of this crisis, and if so, when could this closure occur?’ and ‘How many full-time employees does the business have?’ and ‘What is the age of the top manager of the business?’ Data on 2547 businesses in 127 countries. Response rates vary across countries and regions. In order to control for sector composition, shares are calculated at the sector level and then aggregated using simple averages.
ITC calculations based on ITC COVID-19 Business Impact Survey. Data collected 21 April – 2 June 2020.
Source:
14%
30%
55%
1%
12%
23%
64%
<1%
11%
28%
60%
1%
17%
31%
51%
2%
16%
38%
43%
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The experience and evidence collected during the past four months have been compiled in this report. We hope it will serve businesses, business support organizations and governments to understand better the economic effects ahead and to design the most effective responses.
which are moving into production of masks. Together with major international private sector partners, we have also delivered webinars to women-owned enterprises on how to cope with the current crisis.
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resources to assist our stakeholders in weathering
this crisis and in preparing them for the future:
•
Country profiles, specially designed for this edition
and available for 85 economies, provide a detailed forecast of how the lockdowns in China, Europe
and the United States will affect international
supply chains.
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The year 2019 ended with a sense that the global economy was in for a turbulent 2020. Tensions between major trading powers were on the rise,
there continued to be concerns about inequality within and between countries, and climate change remained high on the agenda, ranking as the top global business risk in a 2019 survey of insurance industry experts. Global debt was reaching record levels and rapid technological change was disrupting the way that goods and services were produced, traded
and consumed.
At the International Trade Centre, we were gearing
up to prepare our main stakeholders – micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) – for the challenges ahead. We did not expect, however, that
a major crisis would hit so rapidly, and that it would
be so different from anything experienced in this century thus far.
The International Trade Centre supports recovery and resilience of SMEs
Smaller companies see larger impact from COVID-19
Glycerine
Ethanol
All stats
Closure in 3 months
Closure in more than 3 months
Closure not envisaged
All stats
26%
22%
53%
18%
14%
68%
21%
15%
64%
10%
12%
78%
Youth-led
firms
Share of respondents
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Non-youth-led firms
SMEs
Large
firms
55%
64%
60%
51%
43%
30%
23%
28%
31%
38%
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
P
R
S
T
U
Z
A
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
B
Barbados
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
C
Canada
Chile
China
Costa Rica
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
D
Denmark
E
Ecuador
El Salvador
Estonia
Eswatini
F
Finland
France
G
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Guatemala
H
Hong Kong SAR
Hungary
I
Iceland
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
J
Japan
K
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
L
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
M
Macao SAR
Madagascar
Malaysia
Malta
Mauritius
Mexico
Morocco
Mozambique
N
Namibia
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
North Macedonia
Norway
P
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
R
Republic of Korea
Romania
Russian Federation
S
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
T
Tajikistan
Thailand
Turkey
U
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
United States of America
Uruguay
Z
Zambia
Zimbabwe
All countries
30%
23%
28%
31%
38%
2%
1%
<1%
1%
2%
Country profiles
53%
68%
64%
78%
22%
14%
15%
12%
26%
18%
21%
10%
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However, vulnerable groups such as women and youth often struggle to access such platforms. Women and young entrepreneurs lead most MSMEs – as both informal traders and cross-border traders. They require extensive training to truly engage with the platform and trade itself. Thus, we look to ITC’s initiatives for entrepreneurs, such as SheTrades and the Youth and Trade Programme, and we hope to
The way forward: A new paradigm
ITC has been a great partner to the AfCFTA and the African Union in advancing trade on the continent.
It contributed significantly by helping to set up the African Trade Observatory, an online market intelligence platform that provides information and data on African trade and markets. MSMEs can use this great tool to guide their trading activities.
The effective implementation of AfCFTA will provide African enterprises with the space they need to thrive and create synergies, raising the profile and volume of investment in the continent. Trade integration creates an opportunity for MSMEs to grow, and it also increases the attractiveness of Africa as an investment destination.
The African Union has already initiated a framework to develop digital trade infrastructure so as to implement the trade agreement. We will build on this work to set in motion a new paradigm for economic growth and social development.
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Governments: Understand needs of MSMEs, provide skill development training and make it easier to access finance and new technologies. This will empower small firms in intra-African trade.
will be needed as industry is revitalized and regional trade grows. This means the next challenge will be cooperating regionally, to attract investment to
diversify production.
Governments must understand the needs of MSMEs, provide skill development training and make it easier for them to access finance and new technologies.
This will empower small firms and ensure that they
are more involved in intra-African trade.
ITC has an important role to play to support AfCFTA member states and their enterprises as we manage the crisis today and begin to consolidate tomorrow. Africa cannot emerge economically without participating more in manufactured goods trade.
For this to happen, policymakers and business
support groups need more skills and knowledge about regional trade facilitation and export market access.
More than ever, the creation of a single continental market remains a game changer. However, there are prerequisites for this free trade area to become a potent reality. Member states must converge on rules and regulations governing trade, to give the business community needed visibility for their investment. Specialized institutions and the business sector must work together to harmonize product standards,
so MSMEs can better target regional markets.
Voluntary policies targeting capacity building and regional coordination are essential to reap more than the implicit benefits of the AfCFTA. Greater capacity
Spurring investment to
diversify production
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The vulnerability of MSMEs and start-ups stems from
a lack of market space to grow, compete and thrive. Without growth, they can create neither sustainability nor resilience to future crises. The trade environment
in Africa today, coupled with the even greater challenges of limited access to finance and small national markets, does not encourage MSMEs to
grow beyond their borders.
The AfCFTA can act as a catalyst for these enterprises to achieve greater economic efficiency to meet the demands of an integrated market. Opening borders to trade will accelerate the reconfiguration of value chains, by easing cross trade of raw materials and semi-finished goods. Integrating regional trade by lifting all tariffs and technical barriers will create
a market of 1.2 billion consumers.
A catalyst to support small firms
the competitiveness gap of their MSMEs, by directing scarce resources towards investments in the productive sector. This has a significant social
and economic impact.
Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in Africa’s economy. Their importance became even more pronounced as the global downturn wreaked havoc on the export-led travel, hospitality and extractive industries – sectors dominated by big companies. Providing MSMEs with an ecosystem that nurtures investment and opening borders for their development is a precondition for post-coronavirus recovery – and beyond, it is a foundation for resilient economic and social development.
African MSMEs are characterized by low productivity, limited access to financial resources and a negligible role in regional and global value chains and the trading system. The current foreign exchange crunch is compelling member states to address
Seizing the crisis to unlock the vast potential of Africa’s pharmaceuticals market will be a key achievement for AfCFTA in its early years of existence.
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Fighting the pandemic has led us back to the drawing board to reset our priorities for AfCFTA. We called for adequate support (including financial) for small drug companies so they could expand their production capacity and improve the range and the sophistication of their output. Seizing the crisis to unlock the vast potential of Africa’s pharmaceuticals market will indeed be a key achievement for the AfCFTA in
its early years of existence.
accelerate investment in pharmaceutical industries. While trade information was non-existent at the beginning of the pandemic, a catalogue of African
drug companies and production is now being compiled. It will be circulated to relevant national authorities.
With the African Union Commission, we are looking into harnessing digital trade and e-commerce as key drivers to implement AfCFTA effectively.
Nevertheless, the AfCFTA has capitalized on the goodwill of member states to provide the impetus to coordinate national and regional institutions that ensures coherent policymaking and better coordination with the private sector, by bridging
the information gap.
In a sense, the disruption in the global supply chain caused by COVID-19 – and the economic downturn that followed – provide a powerful rationale for the immediate implementation of AfCFTA, as a vehicle to spur economic growth and build resilience across the continent.
African businesses, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, have been at the forefront of the pandemic response. They have unveiled many
innovations, from providing medicines and medical equipment to redesigning new supply chains to prevent shortages. The AfCFTA must embrace this new spirit of industrial development in Africa.
A model of development that depends heavily on raw commodity exports has
reached its limits.
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The AfCFTA is a nascent giant. It is respected
by its partners for its potential strategic significance to become the largest and most dynamic regional market by 2030. Unfortunately, the pandemic struck just as the AfCFTA’s organizational framework was being finalized, delaying
many milestones scheduled for 2020.
Nevertheless, the AfCFTA has capitalized
on the good will of member states to provide
the impetus to coordinate national and regional institutions that ensures coherent policymaking
and better coordination with the private sector,
by bridging the information gap.
In a sense, the disruption in the global supply chain caused by COVID-19 – and the economic
Resetting priorities
industry to produce affordable medicines and medical equipment to meet African demand.
The AfCFTA plays a vanguard role in spurring rapid industrialization through regional trade integration:
a focus on small industrial enterprises to boost trade among African states and create jobs. As a by-product of regional integration, industrialization will strengthen economic diversification and resilience.
Resetting priorities
The AfCFTA has a dual track approach. In the short term, its priority is to ensure that intra-African trade continues to grow, by alleviating trade restrictions while promoting a policy of ‘local production first’ whenever available and competitive. In the medium term, the AfCFTA’s strategy is to champion the development of a credible pharmaceutical industry capable of meeting Africa’s growing demand,
and even playing a role in the global market.
Recognizing the effect of border closures on
trade, the Assembly of Heads of States of the
AU established trade corridors or ‘green lanes’ that
allow for the free flow of essential medical goods
used in the fight against the pandemic. Support and resources also were garnered for the pharmaceutical
The AfCFTA is a nascent giant. It is respected by its partners for its potential strategic significance to become the largest and most dynamic regional
market by 2030. Unfortunately, the pandemic struck
just as the AfCFTA’s organizational framework was being finalized, delaying many milestones scheduled for 2020.
Mitigating the pandemic’s effects is not only the priority for today. It is vital to salvage past gains and to maintain carefully laid plans for the future.
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supply chain disruption is likely to further deteriorate the world’s overall sanitary position. Member states require fair access to critical equipment. The AfCFTA Secretariat encourages member states to turn this crisis into an opportunity by redeploying their production so there is an extraordinary increase
in the fabrication of drugs, personal protective equipment, soap, hand sanitizers, intensive care
unit beds, testing kits and even ventilators.
African governments face limited access to essential drugs and health equipment due to shortages aggravated by restrictions that many countries imposed on exports of medical supplies (including personal protection equipment). The AfCFTA is anchored on trade liberalization, even as global
Calls for debt relief in international fora overshadow the perennial reality of Africa’s marginal role in global supply chains, which creates a recurrent shortage of foreign exchange. This limits the continent’s ability to absorb the fallout of a sharp downturn in the global economy. As the effects of the pandemic deepen and the crisis grows in magnitude, it is clear that a model of development that depends heavily on raw commodity exports has reached its limits.
The pandemic highlights the need for African Union members to manufacture more pharmaceuticals. Some countries, such as Egypt and Morocco, rapidly boosted production to meet demand. However, many
Africa must step up production of drugs and medical supplies
industry, which had flourished for two decades.
The obliteration of services trade and the predicted sharp decline in international remittances due to the global recession are shaking the foundations
of the prevalent model of growth, steered by the tertiary sector.
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The AfCFTA is a far-reaching initiative, designed
to foster industrial development and ensure Africa’s prosperity. To this end, it seeks to create an institutional ecosystem to address the continent’s marginal role in global value chains, its structural trade imbalance and its overreliance on bumpy commodity markets – namely, mineral resources
and fossil fuels.
The global drop in industrial production means less demand for key African exports amid a collapse of international trade and a disproportionate decline in the terms of exchange.
The pandemic has not only crippled the production sector; it has also ruined the travel and hospitality
The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a new economic paradigm that is as unprecedented
and radical as the Great Depression. Although
the economic consequences of this global crisis
are still unfolding, its impact on African economies
is already alarming.
For the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and other multilateral bodies, mitigating the effects of the pandemic is not only the priority for today. It is also vital to salvage past gains and to maintain carefully
laid plans for the future.
More than ever, the creation of
a single continental market remains
a game changer.
African Continental
Free Trade Area
Secretary General
Wamkele Mene
Closure in 3 months
Closure in more than 3 months
Closure not envisaged
The year 2019 ended with a sense that the global economy was in for a turbulent 2020. Tensions between major trading powers were on the rise, there continued to be concerns about inequality within and between countries, and climate change remained high on the agenda, ranking as the top global business risk in a 2019 survey of insurance industry experts. Global debt was reaching record levels and rapid technological change was disrupting the way that goods and services were produced, traded
and consumed.
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis, affecting human health and economic welfare
across the globe. It is first and foremost a health crisis, with governments around the world taking measures to prevent the spread of the virus.
Yet the pandemic has also resulted in a planet-wide economic slowdown, affecting trade, investment, growth and employment. The World Trade Organization estimates that world merchandise trade in 2020 could fall sharply, between 13% and 32%. Estimated global losses in GDP growth currently hover around 5 percentage points.
Although the pandemic has affected every corner of the world, the economic earthquake unleashed by COVID-19 does not affect everyone in the same way. With fewer resources to ride out the storm, MSMEs have been particularly vulnerable to the repercussions of the crisis.
These firms in developing countries will be disproportionately affected, especially in Africa,
least developed countries and small island developing States. Small businesses active in trade tend to be more competitive and resilient. Yet many
of them have been shaken by serious disruptions
in international supply chains.
The economic effects of health crises and lockdowns at home and abroad have been devastating. Findings from our global COVID-19 Business Impact Survey, presented in this report, suggest that one in five small firms may go bankrupt within three months. For every bankruptcy, closed store, unpicked crop or drop in online orders, people will lose jobs and families will,
in many cases, lose their only income. For Africa
– which should be creating 12 million–15 million jobs annually to keep up with a growing population
– the implications of these employment figures could be catastrophic. And Africa risks $2.4 billion worth of exports lost in 2020 due to factory shutdowns abroad, as our new supply chain methodology estimates.
As the only international organization fully dedicated
to supporting the competitiveness of micro, small and medium-sized firms, ITC has allocated all possible
Through our network of business support organizations, we reached out to businesses across the globe to understand their concerns
and needs. The findings of this unique COVID-19 Business Impact Survey are presented in this report;
We developed a 15-point action plan, with concrete advice for small businesses, business support organizations and governments to help small businesses through the COVID-19 crisis and towards the future.
We are helping businesses, business support organizations and governments around the world to implement the action plan, and develop an agile response to the crisis.
Our assistance to firms has taken multiple forms. We are, for instance, working with MSMEs to move their business online or to go into new product lines – like the case of textile producers,
•
•
•
On the Global Trade Helpdesk, a joint ITC-UNCTAD-WTO effort, we have introduced specific COVID-19 features that help micro, small and medium-sized firms assess how border measures at home and abroad are evolving and potentially affecting their businesses.
The report goes beyond the immediate crisis response by looking into the future. We expect this future, the ‘new normal’ as many call it, to have
four characteristics.
First, the future will be about resilience, as societies will no longer accept to be unprepared for external threats.
Second, the future will be more digital. This virus
has shown us the full power of these technologies
in a context of crisis.
Third, the future has to be inclusive. The inclusiveness of globalization was already a matter of concern before the pandemic. It will be crucial to ensure that the recovery phase manages to ‘lift all boats’ in order to maintain popular support for open economies.
Fourth, the future has to be sustainable, if we want
to avoid a climate shock as the next global crisis.
The multilateral trade agenda already embraces three of these four themes. The theme of resilience will make its entry into the multilateral debate. In our view, we must accompany this innovation with a redefinition of the relationship between the multilateral trading system and global supply chains. Resilience within these chains is best achieved by new approaches towards supply chain governance.
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Executive Director a.i. International Trade Centre
Dorothy Tembo
At the International Trade Centre, we are joining multi-agency and partner platforms that advocate for stronger partnerships between major buyers and suppliers and a fairer distribution of risks between different players. Governments can support this process through new engagements with supply chain players and the WTO may have a role to play in
this process.
South Africa
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
100 072
Industrial imports
79 290
Value
Supply chain trade
6 588
9 589
Share in total
7%
12%
International supply chains, 2019
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In South Africa projected exports of chemicals to China,
the EU and US worth $111 million will be lost in 2020. There are above-average numbers of women working in this supply chain.
61%
2%
37%
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Total GDP:
375 293 $ million
Industry:
138 858 $ million
GDP composition, 2019
Next graph: International supply chains, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
Ferrous metals
Chemicals
Precious metals
Metals (except ferrous
and precious)
Motor vehicles & parts
Total
Other subsectors
6 027
3%
155
4 327
3%
111
10 741
1%
71
2 857
2%
71
100 072
63 686
0%
150
12 434
0%
29
Export
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total export loss to the G3
72%
25%
1%
588
Figures are in $ million, unless specified. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
Motor vehicles & parts
Machinery
Chemicals
Precious metals
Other subsectors
Total
11%
353
1 276
12%
153
757
12%
89
8 941
2 678
10%
274
51
556
11%
60
Required
imported inputs
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total import loss to the G3
72%
25%
11%
980
Plastics & rubber
470
11%
3 204
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
2%
Ferro-chromium ≥4% of carbon
Ferro-manganese
≥2% of carbon
10%
Hydrocarbons
8%
Rhodium, semi-manufactured
10%
Ferro-manganese
≤2% of carbon
11%
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
China
EU
US
Share in total
60.0 $ million
20.0
40.0
0.0
7%
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicle bodies
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicles, nes
1%
Motor vehicle brakes
11%
Prepared additives for oil lubricants containing petroleum /bituminous mineral oil
15%
Motor vehicle wheels
14%
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Share in total
40.0 $ million
10.0
20.0
30.0
0.0
China
EU
US
Industry snapshot, 2019
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured
in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF
and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Note:
Source:
Argentina
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
31 999
Industrial imports
44 203
Value
Supply chain trade
1 319
6 291
Share in total
4%
14%
International supply chains, 2019
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Annual projections analysing the impact of COVID-19
in Argentina’s supply chain show that, among others, chemical exports to China, the EU and the US worth
$21 million is likely to be lost in 2020. Interestingly,
there are above-average numbers of SMEs and women workers in this supply chain.
56%
6%
39%
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Total GDP:
517 523 $ million
Industry:
199 246 $ million
GDP composition, 2019
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
Chemicals
Skins, leather & products thereof
Beauty products & perfumes
Motor vehicles & parts
Plastics & rubber
Total
Other subsectors
2 911
1%
21
723
2%
16
635
1%
8
7 242
0%
8
31 999
19 208
0%
25
1 280
0%
5
Export
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total export loss to the G3
73%
20%
0%
84
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
Motor vehicles & parts
Chemicals
Plastics & rubber
Machinery
Beauty products
& perfumes
Other subsectors
Total
7%
138
577
9%
54
360
8%
28
271
10%
26
4 342
906
7%
66
114
9%
10
Required
imported inputs
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total import loss to the G3
73%
20%
7%
322
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
2 115
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
4%
Oils of lemon
Lithium carbonates
2%
Grains leather of hides & skins
of bovine or equine animals
2%
Hides and skins of bovine
or equine animals, nes
6%
Quebracho extract
3%
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
China
EU
US
Share in total
10.0 $ million
5.0
0.0
15.0
4%
Parts & accessories of
motorvehicle bodies
Prepared additives for oil lubricants containing petroleum /bituminous mineral oil
10%
Mineral or chemical fertilisers
9%
Mixtures of urea & ammonium nitrate
7%
Ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate
2%
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Share in total
20.0 $ million
5.0
10.0
0.0
China
EU
US
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured
in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF
and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Note:
Source:
Barbados
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
398
Industrial imports
1 239
Value
Supply chain trade
35
53
Share in total
9%
4%
International supply chains, 2019
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In Barbados exports of electronic equipment is projected to fall by at least 10% in 2020 due to the supply chain disruptions.
73%
1%
25%
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Total GDP:
5 184 $ million
Industry:
1 314 $ million
GDP composition, 2019
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
Boats & parts
Electronic equipment
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Textile products not
elsewhere classified
Paper products
Total
Other subsectors
75
3%
2
12
10%
1
40
2%
1
1
8%
<0.5
398
255
0%
<0.5
14
1%
<0.5
Export
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total export loss to the G3
70%
43%
1%
5
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
Boats & parts
Optical products, watches & medical instruments
Electronic equipment
Chemicals
Other subsectors
Total
8%
2
10
12%
1
4
11%
<0.5
61
16
8%
1
4
9%
<0.5
Required
imported inputs
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total import loss to the G3
70%
43%
9%
6
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Paper products
4
9%
<0.5
24
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
10%
Fishing vessels
Artificial parts of the body, nes
1%
Wirewound variable electrical resistors, ≤20W
16%
Parts of electrical resistors, nes
17%
Multimeters
9%
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
China
EU
US
Share in total
3.0 $ million
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.3
6%
Carboys & other
glass containers
Sailboats
16%
Rowing boats
15%
Packing containers, incl. record sleeves, of paper(-board)
12%
Units for data processing machines, nes
9%
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Share in total
0.4 $ million
0.1
0.2
0.0
China
EU
US
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured
in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Note:
Source:
>20%
15% - 19%
10% - 14%
5% - 9%
2% - 4%
<2%
No data
All stats
The year 2020 is not only the year of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also the year of the 75th anniversary of the United Nations and the 25th anniversary
of the World Trade Organization. The year 2020 may also enter history books as a turning point. We may be standing before the stark choice of national or regional blocs in permanent lockdown versus
a more carefully and jointly managed open world.
The International Trade Centre stands firmly on
the side of the latter, by charting in this report a path out of the economic crisis that is true to the values
of the United Nations and the 2030 Agenda.
•
Regional suppliers of low value inputs could divert exports
to produce higher-value disinfectants, masks and personal protective equipment. Currently only a handful of countries
are cornering the market for these products. Demand for
these products will continue to grow.
Mexico
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
464 368
Industrial imports
423 028
Value
Supply chain trade
37 362
75 735
Share in total
8%
18%
International supply chains, 2019
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In Mexico the loss of exports of the machinery is expected to amount to $1813 million, and motor vehicles and parts – to $936 million, mostly due to the temporary ruptured supply chain links with the US.
Next graph: GDP composition, 2019
60%
3%
37%
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Total GDP:
1 240 174 $ million
Industry:
457 624 $ million
GDP composition, 2019
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
Machinery
Motor vehicles & parts
Electronic equipment
Plastics & rubber
Metal products
Total
Other subsectors
75 993
2%
1 813
128 091
1%
936
72 992
1%
697
11 254
4%
482
464 368
167 844
1%
1 236
8 194
3%
279
Export
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total export loss to the G3
71%
23%
1%
5 442
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
Motor vehicles & parts
Machinery
Electronic equipment
Optical products, watches & medical instruments
Plastics & rubber
Other subsectors
Total
14%
3 762
16 103
14%
2 216
13 598
12%
1 673
4 621
14%
647
73 762
9 222
14%
1 278
2 642
14%
381
Required
imported inputs
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total import loss to the G3
71%
23%
13%
9 957
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
27 575
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected export loss of industrial inputs
4%
(Ignition) wiring sets for vehicles
Motor vehicle brakes
6%
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicle bodies
4%
Motor vehicle wheels
9%
Units for data processing
machines, nes
12%
Next graph: Projected import loss of industrial inputs
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
China
EU
US
Share in total
400.0 $ million
200.0
100.0
300.0
0.0
400.0
9%
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicle bodies
Computer data storage units
6%
Motor vehicle brakes
14%
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicles, nes
1%
Motor vehicle wheels
16%
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Share in total
500.0 $ million
200.0
100.0
300.0
0.0
China
EU
US
Next graph: Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured
in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF
and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Note:
Source:
India
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
292 922
Industrial imports
431 384
Value
Supply chain trade
35 699
37 992
Share in total
12%
9%
International supply chains, 2019
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In India projected exports of chemicals to China, the EU and US worth $813 million will be lost in 2020. There are above-average numbers of women working in this supply chain.
49%
15%
36%
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Total GDP:
2 883 064 $ million
Industry:
1 035 020 $ million
GDP composition, 2019
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
Chemicals
Machinery
Ferrous metals
Plastics & rubber
Metal products
Total
Other subsectors
28 583
3%
813
25 966
2%
551
12 082
3%
341
11 026
3%
308
292 922
207 546
1%
1 079
7 719
2%
174
Export
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total export loss to the G3
73%
14%
1%
3 267
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
Machinery
Chemicals
Motor vehicles & parts
Plastics & rubber
Other subsectors
Total
10%
593
4 392
10%
448
4 493
9%
419
36 704
16 894
9%
1 440
192
3 099
8%
255
Required
imported inputs
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total import loss to the G3
73%
14%
9%
3 347
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Apparel
1 811
11%
6 016
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
8%
New pneumatic tyres, of rubber
Motor vehicle brakes
6%
Parts of valves &
similar articles for pipes
7%
Flanges of stainless steel
12%
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicles, nes
1%
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
China
EU
US
Share in total
60.0 $ million
20.0
40.0
0.0
7%
Parts & accessories
of motor vehicle bodies
Prepared additives for oil lubricants containing petroleum /bituminous mineral oil
11%
Poly"ethylene terephthalate",
in primary forms
8%
Motor vehicle brakes
11%
Parts of valves & similar
articles for pipes
6%
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Share in total
40.0 $ million
20.0
10.0
30.0
0.0
China
EU
US
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured
in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF
and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Note:
Source:
Philipines
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
76 259
Industrial imports
106 646
Value
Supply chain trade
14 522
12 951
Share in total
19%
12%
International supply chains, 2019
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In The Philippines projected exports of electronic equipment to China, the EU and US worth $727 million will be lost
in 2020.
60%
9%
31%
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Total GDP:
356 551 $ million
Industry:
110 531 $ million
GDP composition, 2019
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
Electronic equipment
Machinery
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Chemicals
Miscellaneous
manufactured products
Total
Other subsectors
42 955
2%
727
11 501
3%
323
2 910
2%
49
1 053
3%
35
76 259
16 471
1%
96
1 369
1%
17
Export
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total export loss to the G3
55%
17%
2%
1 246
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
MOST AFFECTED
SECTORS
SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS, 2019
EXPECTED LOSS: Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
Electronic equipment
Machinery
Optical products, watches & medical instruments
Miscellaneous
manufactured products
Other subsectors
Total
7%
515
2 868
7%
203
692
7%
51
13 551
1 969
7%
143
23
355
8%
28
Required
imported inputs
SME
presence
Women
employment
Total import loss to the G3
55%
17%
7%
963
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Plastics & rubber
367
6%
7 301
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
7%
Computer data storage units
Smart cards; electronic
integrated circuits; LED lamps
0%
Transistors ≥1W
8%
Other office machines
2%
Inductors
6%
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
China
EU
US
Share in total
400.0 $ million
200.0
100.0
300.0
0.0
9%
Photosensitive
semiconductor devices
Data processing machines
3%
Transistors ≥1W
9%
Diodes
7%
Parts of telephone sets &
other transmission apparatus
1%
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Share in total
50.0 $ million
30.0
10.0
20.0
40.0
0.0
China
EU
US
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured
in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF
and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Note:
Source:
Next graph: International supply chains, 2019
Next graph: International supply chains, 2019
Next graph: International supply chains, 2019
Next graph: International supply chains, 2019
Next graph: International supply chains, 2019
Next graph: GDP composition, 2019
Next graph: GDP composition, 2019
Next graph: GDP composition, 2019
Next graph: GDP composition, 2019
Next graph: GDP composition, 2019
Next graph: Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected export loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected export loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected export loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected export loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected export loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected import loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected import loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected import loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected import loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected import loss of industrial inputs
Next graph: Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Next graph: Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Secretary General of the AfCFTA
Wamkele Mene
Read more
African growth: A new model for a post-COVID-19 world
thought leader
Executive Director a.i. International Trade Centre
Dorothy Tembo
Read more
ITC supports recovery
and resilience of SMEs
See all countries
The post-pandemic period presents a unique opportunity to embrace new concepts, fields of work and partnerships. Implementing these proposals could help the multilateral trading system to regain its power to build prosperity in a changed world, and contribute to the United Nations Global Goals.
Three Lessons
on Supply Chains
The Great Lockdown
Lesson 1
Boost regional
supply chains for essential goods
Lesson 2
Lesson 3
Step up support from business support organizations
Encourage buyers
to create resilient supply chains
Lesson 3
Encourage buyers
to create resilient supply chains
Lesson 2
Lesson 1
This scenario opens up opportunities for regional supply chains to diversify the global supply of such goods.
Opportunities abound to reorganize supply chains at the
regional level, especially for personal protective equipment
and disinfectants.
Just five countries – China, Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, and the US − account for half of the world exports of such products. Many of the supplies needed are exported by countries in Africa, the Americas and the Pacific.
Lesson 1
Boost regional supply chains for essential goods
They can bring firms together, match business opportunities with
a shared offer or common need, and test willingness to cooperate in ways that are fair and respect commercial sensitivities. Businesses working together can reduce costs through shared procurement, create economies of scale and access new opportunities by sharing knowledge and resources.
Chambers of commerce, sector associations, trade and investment support institutions, and cooperatives have an opportunity to make a difference.
Lesson 2
Step up support from business support organizations
Resilient supply chains can transmit knowledge, provide stability
and generate agility. Proposals exist to link supply chain players
to the multilateral trading system, for instance, by creating supply chain councils.
Pay manufacturers for finished goods and goods in production;
Maintain quick, effective and open lines of communication with supply chain partners on business operations and future planning.
•
•
Brands and retailers could limit the effects of COVID-19 and future crises on their supply chains, including by committing to:
Supply chains that circle the globe will continue to be part of the international trade landscape. The resilience of these supply chains – which include many small and medium-sized firms – matters. Buyers in lead firms have a significant role in directing supply chains, as they influence production practices, branding, sourcing and sales.
Multiagency and partner platforms are essential – to advocate for stronger partnerships between major buyers and suppliers, and
a fair distribution of risks.
Lesson 3
Encourage buyers to create resilient supply chains
Full PDF Report
To support its partners through these difficult times, ITC has developed
a 15-point action plan for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), business support organizations and governments. The aim is to help internationally minded SMEs through the crisis, allowing them to be at the forefront of generating resilience, inclusiveness, sustainability and growth in the future. As part of this plan, business support organizations play a key role as agile, expert and trusted connectors of SMEs and governments.
Read more
Supporting small businesses during
the COVID-19 crisis and beyond
A 15-POINT ACTION PLAN
Expand and facilitate access to finance for SMEs, including those run by women or young entrepreneurs.
Improve border management of trade to streamline access to essential products.
Hasten progress towards the digitalization of trade documents and procedures, in collaboration with the private sector.
Prepare to operate in a new global economy that is more digital and geared towards resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability.
11
12
13
14
15
Resist trade protectionism and facilitate trade
to enable the movement of essential products.
Prepare immediate response to the crisis:
Get ready for the new normal:
Recommendations
for governments
3/3
Previous page
Coordinate collective actions by SMEs for resilience,
scale and efficiency.
Be both global and local to inform and reduce the
risks that business owners must take during the crisis.
Use digital platforms to enhance the competitiveness
and agility of SMEs in reaching customers.
Be a leader in an ecosystem enabling SMEs to thrive
within a new global economy that is more digital and geared towards resilience, inclusiveness
and sustainability.
6
7
8
9
10
Channel flow of trusted information and build bridges
to deploy solutions rapidly.
Prepare immediate response to the crisis:
Get ready for the new normal:
Recommendations for business support organizations
2/3
Next page
Previous page
Optimize cash management and identify
efficiency gains.
Reorient activities and resources to ensure
business continuity during the lockdown.
Foster relationships by improving communications with partners and employees.
Build business models that foster resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability and that ride the digital wave.
1
2
3
4
5
Adapt business processes by applying common-
sense precautions and restructuring operations.
Prepare immediate response to the crisis:
Get ready for the new normal:
Recommendations
for businesses
1/3
Next page
A 15-POINT ACTION PLAN
Next page
Next page
Next page
Governments around the world realize that SMEs act as a lynchpin connecting the pandemic to broader economic recession. In addition to addressing the health crisis, they have scrambled to alleviate the impact
of COVID-19 on small businesses, introducing policies to help them cope with the short-term financial risks and long-term business implications. This will, it is hoped, reduce layoffs, prevent bankruptcy, encourage investment and help economies get back on their feet as soon as
possible in the aftermath of the crisis.
21% of surveyed small businesses
were agile in their response to
the crisis, compared to just 16%
of larger firms.
Surviving
the pandemic
To access all country profiles click the button below.
Country Profiles
Boost regional
supply chains for essential goods
Step up support from business support organizations
Regional suppliers
Argentina
Malaysia
Germany
0.2% of South Africa’s
monthly exports
1.1% of Egypt’s
monthly exports
2.7% of Papua New Guinea’s monthly exports
Malaysia
Indonesia
Web Updates & Stories
Africa and the Pacific
could meet disinfectant needs through regional
and global sourcing
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
2.2% of South Africa’s
monthly exports
China
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Annual projections, 2020:
International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
The AfCFTA Secretariat supported this positive development by advocating for the establishment of deep value chains to boost intra-African trade and
Close
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
GDP composition, 2019
International supply chains, 2019
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
South Africa
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
100 072
72%
25%
588
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
63 686
150
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Motor vehicles & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
12 434
29
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 857
71
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Metals (except
ferrous and precious)
Precious metals
Sector characteristics, 2019
10 741
71
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Chemicals
Sector characteristics, 2019
4 327
111
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Ferrous metals
Sector characteristics, 2019
6 027
155
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise. Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
8 941
72%
25%
980
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
11%
Total import loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 678
274
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
10%
Total import loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Sector characteristics, 2019
470
51
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
11%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
556
60
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
11%
Total import loss to the G3
Precious metals
Chemicals
Sector characteristics, 2019
757
89
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
12%
Total import loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
1 276
153
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
12%
Total import loss to the G3
Motor vehicles & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
3 204
353
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
11%
Total import loss to the G3
2%
Ferro-chromium ≥4% of carbon
Ferro-manganese ≥2% of carbon
10%
Hydrocarbons
8%
Rhodium, semi-manufactured
10%
Ferro-manganese ≤2% of carbon
11%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
60.0 $ million
20.0
40.0
0.0
Projected export
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
7%
Parts & accessories of motor vehicle bodies
Parts & accessories of motor vehicles, nes
1%
Motor vehicle brakes
11%
Prepared additives for oil lubricants containing petroleum/bituminous mineral oil
15%
Motor vehicle wheels
14%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
40.0 $ million
10.0
20.0
30.0
0.0
Projected import
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
GDP composition, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Total GDP:
375 293 $ million
Industry:
138 858 $ million
Services
Agriculture
Industry
61%
2%
37%
International supply chains, 2019
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
100 072
Industrial imports
79 290
Value
Supply chain trade
6 588
9 589
Share
in total
7%
12%
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In South Africa projected exports of chemicals to China, the EU and US worth $111 million will be lost in 2020. There are above-average numbers of women working in this supply chain.
Industry snapshot, 2019
Close
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
GDP composition, 2019
International supply chains, 2019
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Argentina
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
31 999
73%
20%
84
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
19 208
25
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Sector characteristics, 2019
1 280
5
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
7 242
8
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Motor vehicles & parts
Beauty products & perfumes
Sector characteristics, 2019
635
8
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Skins, leather & products thereof
Sector characteristics, 2019
723
16
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Chemicals
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 911
21
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
4342
73%
20%
322
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
906
66
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
Beauty products & perfumes
Sector characteristics, 2019
114
10
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
271
26
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
10%
Total import loss to the G3
Machinery
Plastics & rubber
Sector characteristics, 2019
360
28
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
8%
Total import loss to the G3
Chemicals
Sector characteristics, 2019
577
54
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Motor vehicles & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 115
138
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
4%
Oils of lemon
Lithium carbonates
2%
HydrocGrains leather of hides & skins of bovine or equine animals
2%
Hides and skins of bovine
or equine animals, nes
6%
Quebracho extract
3%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
10.0 $ million
5.0
0.0
Projected export
loss of industrial
inputs - examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
4%
Parts & accessories of motorvehicle bodies
Prepared additives for oil lubricants containing petroleum/bituminous mineral oil
10%
Mineral or chemical fertilisers
9%
Mixtures of urea & ammonium nitrate
7%
Ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate
2%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
20.0 $ million
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
Projected import
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
GDP composition, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Total GDP:
517 523 $ million
Industry:
199 246 $ million
Services
Agriculture
Industry
56%
6%
39%
International supply chains, 2019
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
31 999
Industrial imports
44 203
Value
Supply chain trade
1 319
6 291
Share
in total
4%
14%
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Annual projections analysing the impact of COVID-19 in Argentina’s supply chain show that, among others, chemical exports to China, the EU and the US worth $21 million is likely to be lost in 2020. Interestingly, there are above-average numbers of SMEs and women workers in this supply chain.
Industry snapshot, 2019
Close
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
GDP composition, 2019
International supply chains, 2019
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Barbados
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
398
70%
43%
5
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
255
<0.5
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
0%
Total export loss to the G3
Paper products
Sector characteristics, 2019
14
<0.5
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
1
<0.5
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
8%
Total export loss to the G3
Textile products not
elsewhere classified
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Sector characteristics, 2019
40
1
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Electronic equipment
Sector characteristics, 2019
12
1
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
10%
Total export loss to the G3
Boats & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
75
2
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
61
70%
43%
6
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
16
1
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
8%
Total import loss to the G3
Paper products
Sector characteristics, 2019
4
<0.5
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
4
<0.5
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Chemicals
Electronic equipment
Sector characteristics, 2019
4
<0.5
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
11%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
10
1
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
12%
Total import loss to the G3
Boats & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
24
2
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
8%
Total import loss to the G3
10%
Fishing vessels
Artificial parts of the body, nes
1%
Wirewound variable electrical
resistors, ≤20W
16%
Parts of electrical resistors, nes
17%
Multimeters
9%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
3.0 $ million
1.0
2.0
0.0
Projected export
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
6%
Carboys & other glass containers
Sailboats
16%
Rowing boats
15%
Packing containers, incl. record sleeves,
of paper(-board)
12%
Units for data processing machines, nes
9%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
0.4 $ million
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
Projected import
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
GDP composition, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Total GDP:
5 184 $ million
Industry:
1 314 $ million
Services
Agriculture
Industry
73%
1%
25%
International supply chains, 2019
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
398
Industrial imports
1 239
Value
Supply chain trade
35
53
Share
in total
9%
4%
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In Barbados exports of electronic equipment is projected to fall by at least 10% in 2020 due to the supply chain disruptions.
Industry snapshot, 2019
Close
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
GDP composition, 2019
International supply chains, 2019
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Mexico
Close
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
GDP composition, 2019
International supply chains, 2019
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
India
Close
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Industry snapshot, 2019
GDP composition, 2019
International supply chains, 2019
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Projected export loss of industrial inputs - examples
Projected import loss of industrial inputs - examples
Philipines
Plastic caps
Plastic bottles
global suppliers
Plastic caps & bottles
Regional suppliers
Africa
Pacific
Regional suppliers
global suppliers
global suppliers
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
76 259
55%
17%
1246
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
16 471
96
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Miscellaneous
manufactured products
Sector characteristics, 2019
1 369
17
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
1 053
35
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Chemicals
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 910
49
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
11 501
323
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Electronic equipment
Sector characteristics, 2019
42 955
727
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
13 551
55%
17%
963
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
1 969
143
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Sector characteristics, 2019
367
23
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
6%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
355
28
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
8%
Total import loss to the G3
Miscellaneous
manufactured products
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Sector characteristics, 2019
692
51
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 868
203
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
Electronic equipment
Sector characteristics, 2019
7 301
515
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
7%
Total import loss to the G3
7%
Computer data storage units
Smart cards; electronic integrated circuits; LED lamps
0%
Transistors ≥1W
8%
Other office machines
2%
Inductors
6%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
400.0 $ million
200.0
0.0
Projected export
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
9%
Photosensitive semiconductor devices
Data processing machines
3%
Transistors ≥1W
9%
Diodes
7%
Parts of telephone sets & other transmission apparatus
1%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
50.0 $ million
10.0
20.0
40.0
0.0
Projected import
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
GDP composition, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Total GDP:
356 551 $ million
Industry:
110 531 $ million
Services
Agriculture
Industry
60%
9%
31%
International supply chains, 2019
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
76 259
Industrial imports
106 646
Value
Supply chain trade
14 522
12 951
Share
in total
19%
12%
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In The Philippines projected exports of electronic equipment to China, the EU and US worth $727 million will be lost
in 2020.
Industry snapshot, 2019
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
292 922
73%
14%
3 267
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
207 546
1 079
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Metal products
Sector characteristics, 2019
7 719
174
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
11 026
308
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Ferrous metals
Sector characteristics, 2019
12 082
341
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
25 966
551
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Chemicals
Sector characteristics, 2019
28 583
813
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
36 704
73%
14%
3 347
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
16 894
1 440
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Apparel
Sector characteristics, 2019
1 811
192
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
11%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
3 099
255
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
8%
Total import loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Motor vehicles & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
4 493
419
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
9%
Total import loss to the G3
Chemicals
Sector characteristics, 2019
4 392
448
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
10%
Total import loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
6 016
593
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
10%
Total import loss to the G3
8%
New pneumatic tyres, of rubber
Motor vehicle brakes
6%
Parts of valves & similar articles for pipes
Flanges of stainless steel
12%
Parts & accessories of motor vehicles, nes
1%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
60.0 $ million
20.0
0.0
Projected export
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
7%
Parts & accessories of motor vehicle bodies
Prepared additives for oil lubricants containing petroleum/bituminous mineral oil
11%
Poly"ethylene terephthalate", in primary forms
8%
Motor vehicle brakes
11%
Parts of valves & similar articles for pipes
6%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
40.0 $ million
10.0
20.0
30.0
0.0
Projected import
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
GDP composition, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Total GDP:
2 883 064 $ million
Industry:
1 035 020 $ million
Services
Agriculture
Industry
49%
15%
36%
International supply chains, 2019
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
292 922
Industrial imports
431 384
Value
Supply chain trade
35 699
37 992
Share
in total
12%
9%
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In India projected exports of chemicals to China, the EU and US worth $813 million will be lost in 2020. There are above-average numbers of women working in this supply chain.
Industry snapshot, 2019
Projected supply chain export loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
464 368
71%
23%
5 442
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
167 844
1 236
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Metal products
Sector characteristics, 2019
8 194
279
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
3%
Total export loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
11 254
482
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
4%
Total export loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Electronic equipment
Sector characteristics, 2019
72 992
697
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Motor vehicles & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
128 091
936
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
1%
Total export loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
75 993
1 813
Export
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Exports of industrial inputs, 2020
2%
Total export loss to the G3
Projected supply chain import loss, by sector
Most affected sectors:
Figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
Green dot: Above average. Purple dot: Below average.
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
Total
Sector characteristics, 2019
73 762
71%
23%
9 957
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
13%
Total import loss to the G3
Other subsectors
Sector characteristics, 2019
9 222
1 278
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
14%
Total import loss to the G3
Plastics & rubber
Sector characteristics, 2019
2 642
381
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
14%
Total import loss to the G3
Sector characteristics, 2019
4 621
647
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
14%
Total import loss to the G3
Optical products, watches
& medical instruments
Electronic equipment
Sector characteristics, 2019
13 598
1 673
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
12%
Total import loss to the G3
Machinery
Sector characteristics, 2019
16 103
2 216
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
14%
Total import loss to the G3
Motor vehicles & parts
Sector characteristics, 2019
27 575
3 762
Required
imported inputs
SME presence
Women employment
EXPECTED LOSS:
Imports of industrial inputs, 2020
14%
Total import loss to the G3
4%
(Ignition) wiring sets for vehicles
Motor vehicle brakes
6%
Parts & accessories of motor vehicle bodies
4%
Motor vehicle wheels
9%
Units for data processing machines, nes
12%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
400.0 $ million
0.0
Projected export
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
9%
Parts & accessories of motorvehicle bodies
Computer data storage units
6%
Motor vehicle brakes
14%
Parts & accessories of motor vehicles, nes
1%
Motor vehicle wheels
16%
China
EU
US
Share
in total
500.0 $ million
100.0
300.0
400.0
0.0
Projected import
loss of industrial inputs
- examples
1
2
3
4
5
Annual projections, 2020: International supply chain disruption by COVID-19
1
2
3
4
5
GDP composition, 2019
Industry snapshot, 2019
Total GDP:
1 240 174 $ million
Industry:
457 624 $ million
Services
Agriculture
Industry
60%
3%
37%
International supply chains, 2019
Industrial exports
Value
Total trade
464 368
Industrial imports
423 028
Value
Supply chain trade
37 362
75 735
Share
in total
8%
18%
All figures are in $ million, unless specified otherwise.
In Mexico the loss of exports of the machinery is expected to amount to $1813 million, and motor vehicles and parts – to $936 million, mostly due to the temporary ruptured supply chain links with the US.
Industry snapshot, 2019
300.0
100.0
30.0
40.0
7%
200.0
100.0
300.0
200.0
International trade in turmoil
Essential goods: supply chains
Lockdown hits small businesses
Surviving the pandemic
Preparing for the ‘new normal’
Country profiles
Highlights
Press Release
Web Updates & Stories
WebTV
SME COMPETITIVENESS OUTLOOK 2020
Full PDF report
And its Impact on Small Business
The Great
Lockdown
Summaries in:
Русский
中文
عربى
Español
Français
English
Français
Español
Русский
English
The pandemic hit the world when
trade was already in turmoil. Collected data shows that world trade dropped
in all quarters of 2019, with declines intensifying in early 2020 in a ripple
effect that started in China.
Monthly figures show that Chinese exports fell about 21% in February 2020 from a year earlier. Although Chinese exports recovered slightly in March, the pandemic began to hit exports from other countries from several sectors. Travel
and tourism are among the most affected ones. The World Tourism Organization predicts that international tourist arrivals could decline 60%-80% in 2020
from 2019.
This report contains country profiles with data on supply chain trade. The profiles show the projected loss of exports and imports in 2020, due to industrial supply chain disruption, caused by lockdowns
in China, the European Union and
the United States.
China, the EU & the
US account for over 60% of supply chain trade. This has had an impact on economies everywhere.
International trade in turmoil
>20%
15% - 19%
10% - 14%
5% - 9%
2% - 4%
<2%
No data
All stats
South & Central America
$2.4b
North America
$22.1b
Oceania
$0.8b
Europe
$26.8b
$71.4b
Asia
$2.4b
Africa
Slump forecast
in exports of
manufacturing inputs
for supply chains
Colours indicate the share of supply chain exports in the total exports of the country. The software generating maps does not apply United Nations definitions of national borders.
COVID-19 has given governments
around the globe the challenge of directing essential goods, such as food and medical equipment, where they are most needed to address the immediate health crisis. High demand for certain sanitary products, supply chain disruptions and logistical constraints made this difficult. Fearful that their populations would be unable to obtain goods needed to cope with the immediate health crisis, many governments imposed new trade measures on these items.
Export bans & other restrictions cover 73%
of global trade in
COVID-19-related goods.
Essential goods: supply chains
*Click on bottle to see more detials
Glycerine
Ethanol
Argentina
Malaysia
Germany
Malaysia
Indonesia
global suppliers
global suppliers
Africa
Pacific
Regional suppliers
Regional suppliers
2.2% of South Africa’s
monthly exports
2.7% of Papua New Guinea’s monthly exports
Africa
Pacific
Regional suppliers
0.2% of South Africa’s
monthly exports
1.1% of Egypt’s
monthly exports
global suppliers
China
Plastic caps & bottles
Plastic caps
Plastic bottles
Pacific
Africa
Africa and the Pacific could meet disinfectant needs through regional
and global sourcing
Regional suppliers of low value inputs could divert exports to produce higher-value disinfectants, masks and personal protective equipment. Currently only
a handful of countries are cornering the market for these products. Demand for these products will continue to grow.
Secretary General of the AfCFTA
Wamkele Mene
Read more
African growth:
A new model for
a post-COVID-19 world
thought leader
Small companies tend to be
vulnerable during an economic crisis, in part because they have fewer resources with which to adapt to a changing context.
The ITC COVID-19 Business Impact Survey gathered evidence on how the
pandemic affected 4,467 companies
in 132 countries.
Analysis of this data, collected from
21 April–2 June 2020, shows that the pandemic has strongly affected 55%
of respondents. Nearly two-thirds of
micro and small firms reported that
the crisis strongly affected their business operations, compared with about 40%
of large companies.
One-fifth of SMEs
are at risk of shutting down permanently within three months.
Lockdown hits small businesses
SMEs and youth-led firms risk shutting down in the next months
Respondents were asked ‘Do you think there is a risk that your business will permanently shut down because of this crisis, and if so, when could this closure occur?’ and ‘How many full-time employees does the business have?’ and ‘What is the age of the top manager of the business?’
ITC calculations based on ITC COVID-19 Business Impact Survey. Data collected 21 April – 2 June 2020.
Source:
Youth-led firm
Non-youth-led firms
SMEs
Large firms
Share of respondents
80%
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
53%
68%
64%
78%
Closure not envisaged
Closure not envisaged
22%
14%
15%
12%
Closure in more
than 3 months
Closure in more than 3 months
26%
18%
21%
10%
Closure in 3 months
Closure in 3 months
Closure in 3 months
Closure in more than 3 months
Closure not envisaged
All stats
Smaller companies see larger impact from COVID-19
2%
1%
<1%
1%
2%
Not affected
Not affected
30%
23%
28%
31%
38%
Slightly affected
Slightly affected
30%
23%
28%
31%
38%
Moderately affected
Moderately affected
55%
64%
60%
51%
43%
Strongly affected
Strongly affected
Strongly affected
Moderately affected
Slightly affected
Not affected
All stats
Total
Large
Micro
Small
Medium
Share of respondents
80%
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Smaller companies see larger impact from COVID-19
Respondents were asked ‘How have your business operations been affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic?’ and ‘How many full-time employees does the business have?’
Definitions: Microenterprises, up to 4 employees; small firms, 5-19 employees; medium-sized firms, 20-99 employees; large firms, 100 or more employees. Data on 2170 businesses in 121 countries. Response rates vary across countries
and regions.
ITC calculations based on ITC COVID-19 Business Impact Survey. Data collected 21 April – 2 June 2020.
Source:
SMEs and youth-led
firms are at higher risk of permanently shutting down
in coming months
Governments around the world realize that SMEs act as a lynchpin connecting
the pandemic to broader economic recession. In addition to addressing
the health crisis, they have scrambled
to alleviate the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses, introducing policies
to help them cope with the short-term financial risks and long-term business implications. This will, it is hoped, reduce layoffs, prevent bankruptcy, encourage investment and help economies get back on their feet as soon as possible in the aftermath of the crisis.
21% of surveyed small businesses were agile in their response to the crisis, compared to just
16% of larger firms.
Surviving
the pandemic
The post-pandemic period presents
a unique opportunity to embrace new concepts, fields of work and partnerships. Implementing these proposals could help the multilateral trading system to regain
its power to build prosperity in a changed world, and contribute to the United Nations Global Goals.
Three Lessons on Supply Chains
The Great Lockdown
Lesson 1
Boost regional
supply chains for essential goods
Lesson 2
Step up support from business support organizations
Lesson 3
Encourage buyers
to create resilient supply chains
With shutdowns being gradually lifted in China, Europe and elsewhere, business owners and policymakers are shifting
their focus towards the post-pandemic world. Companies, business support organizations and governments will
have to adapt to this ‘new normal’ in
the months and years ahead.
If the world seizes the opportunities presented by this crisis to address fundamental challenges in the global economy, the new normal can be one that emphasizes resilience.
Small businesses are reopening into
a world that has been reshaped by
the pandemic. They do not operate
in a void: they operate in a business ecosystem that will influence whether
they sink, or swim, in the new normal.
The new normal
will be resilient, digital, inclusive & sustainable.
Preparing for
the ‘new normal’
Read more
To support its partners through these difficult times, ITC has developed a 15-point action plan for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), business support organizations and governments. The aim is to help internationally minded SMEs through the crisis, allowing them to be at the forefront of generating resilience, inclusiveness, sustainability and growth in the future. As part of this plan, business support organizations play a key role as agile, expert and trusted connectors of SMEs and governments.
Supporting small businesses during
the COVID-19 crisis & beyond
A 15-POINT ACTION PLAN
Executive Director a.i. International Trade Centre
Dorothy Tembo
Read more
ITC supports recovery
and resilience
of SMEs
back to top
COVID-19: The Great Lockdown and its Impact on Small Business
SME COMPETITIVENESS OUTLOOK 2020
For more information on ITC’s SME Competitiveness Outlook for 2020, download the full report.
Full PDF Report
Country profiles
Country profiles
To access all country profiles
click the button below.
South Africa
Philipines
Mexico
India
Barbados
Argentina
See all countries
The supply chain disruption scenario assumes a two-month long complete shutdown of industrial production in
the G3, including China, the European Union, and the United States in 2020.
Percentages indicate the share of the expected loss of supply chain exports (imports) with the G3 in 2020 in the total annual exports to (imports from) all partner countries, as measured in 2019.
Supply chain trade is defined as the flows of inputs used in production located in at least two countries, with produced goods consumed in a third country. For further detail see Technical Annex.
ITC Market Analysis Tools for trade statistics (2019), IMF and WBG for GDP (2019), World Bank Enterprise Surveys for SME presences and women employment (2017-2019).
Source:
SMECO 2020 focuses on the supply
chain disruption caused by the factory shutdowns in China, Europe and the United States, in response to COVID-19. The profiles comprise 85 economies,
for which 2019 trade data and GDP data were available at the time of analysis in April 2020. Below, we present a few selected cases.
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
P
R
S
T
U
Z
A
Antigua & Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
B
Barbados
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
C
Canada
Chile
China
Costa Rica
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
D
Denmark
E
Ecuador
El Salvador
Estonia
Eswatini
F
Finland
France
G
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Guatemala
H
Hong Kong SAR
Hungary
I
Iceland
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
J
Japan
K
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
L
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
M
Macao SAR
Madagascar
Malaysia
Malta
Mauritius
Mexico
Morocco
Mozambique
N
Namibia
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
North Macedonia
Norway
P
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
R
Republic of Korea
Romania
Russian Federation
S
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
T
Tajikistan
Thailand
Turkey
U
UK of Great Britain & Northern Ireland
United States of America
Uruguay
Z
Zambia
Zimbabwe
All countries
Close
Executive Director a.i. International Trade Centre
Dorothy Tembo
At the International Trade Centre, we
are joining multi-agency and partner platforms that advocate for stronger partnerships between major buyers and suppliers and a fairer distribution of risks between different players. Governments can support this process through new engagements with supply chain players and the WTO may have a role to play
in this process.
The year 2020 is not only the year of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also the year
of the 75th anniversary of the United Nations and the 25th anniversary of the World Trade Organization. The year 2020 may also enter history books as a turning point. We may be standing before the stark choice of national or regional blocs in permanent lockdown versus a more carefully and jointly managed open world. The International Trade Centre stands firmly on the side of the latter, by charting
in this report a path out of the economic crisis that is true to the values of the
United Nations and the 2030 Agenda.
The experience and evidence collected during the past four months have been compiled in this report. We hope it will serve businesses, business support organizations and governments to understand better the economic effects ahead and to design the most effective responses.
First, the future will be about resilience,
as societies will no longer accept to be unprepared for external threats.
Second, the future will be more digital. This virus has shown us the full power of these technologies in a context of crisis.
Third, the future has to be inclusive.
The inclusiveness of globalization was already a matter of concern before the pandemic. It will be crucial to ensure
that the recovery phase manages to ‘lift
all boats’ in order to maintain popular support for open economies.
Fourth, the future has to be sustainable,
if we want to avoid a climate shock as
the next global crisis.
The multilateral trade agenda already embraces three of these four themes.
The theme of resilience will make its
entry into the multilateral debate. In our view, we must accompany this innovation with a redefinition of the relationship between the multilateral trading system and global supply chains. Resilience within these chains is best achieved
by new approaches towards supply
chain governance.
The report goes beyond the immediate crisis response by looking into the future. We expect this future, the ‘new normal’ as many call it, to have four characteristics.
On the Global Trade Helpdesk, a joint ITC-UNCTAD-WTO effort, we have introduced specific COVID-19 features that help micro, small and medium-sized firms assess how border measures at home and abroad are evolving and potentially affecting their businesses.
•
Through our network of business support organizations, we reached out to businesses across the globe to understand their concerns and needs. The findings of this unique COVID-19 Business Impact Survey are presented in this report;
•
We developed a 15-point action
plan, with concrete advice for small businesses, business support organizations and governments to
help small businesses through
the COVID-19 crisis and towards
the future.
•
We are helping businesses, business support organizations and governments around the world to implement the action plan, and develop an agile response to the crisis.
•
Our assistance to firms has taken multiple forms. We are, for instance, working with MSMEs to move their business online or to go into new product lines – like the case of textile producers, which are moving into production of masks. Together with major international private sector partners, we have also delivered webinars to women-owned enterprises on how to cope with the current crisis.
•
Country profiles, specially designed for
this edition and available for 85 economies, provide a detailed forecast of how the lockdowns in China, Europe and the United States will affect international supply chains.
The economic effects of health crises and lockdowns at home and abroad have been devastating. Findings from our global COVID-19 Business Impact Survey, presented in this report, suggest that one
in five small firms may go bankrupt within three months. For every bankruptcy,
closed store, unpicked crop or drop in online orders, people will lose jobs and families will, in many cases, lose their
only income. For Africa – which should
be creating 12 million–15 million jobs annually to keep up with a growing population – the implications of these employment figures could be catastrophic. And Africa risks $2.4 billion worth of exports lost in 2020 due to factory shutdowns abroad, as our new supply chain methodology estimates.
As the only international organization
fully dedicated to supporting the competitiveness of micro, small and medium-sized firms, ITC has allocated
all possible resources to assist our stakeholders in weathering this crisis
and in preparing them for the future:
At the International Trade Centre, we
were gearing up to prepare our main stakeholders – micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) – for the challenges ahead. We did not expect, however, that a major crisis would hit
so rapidly, and that it would be so different from anything experienced in
this century thus far.
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis, affecting human health and economic welfare
across the globe. It is first and foremost
a health crisis, with governments around the world taking measures to prevent
the spread of the virus. Yet the pandemic has also resulted in a planet-wide economic slowdown, affecting trade, investment, growth and employment.
The World Trade Organization estimates that world merchandise trade in 2020 could fall sharply, between 13% and 32%. Estimated global losses in GDP growth currently hover around
5 percentage points.
Although the pandemic has affected
every corner of the world, the economic earthquake unleashed by COVID-19 does not affect everyone in the same way. With fewer resources to ride out the storm, MSMEs have been particularly vulnerable to the repercussions of the crisis.
These firms in developing countries will be disproportionately affected, especially in Africa, least developed countries and small island developing States. Small businesses active in trade tend to be more competitive and resilient. Yet many of them have been shaken by serious disruptions in international supply chains.
The year 2019 ended with a sense that the global economy was in for a turbulent 2020. Tensions between major trading powers were on the rise, there continued to be concerns about inequality within and between countries, and climate change remained high on the agenda, ranking as the top global business risk in a 2019 survey of insurance industry experts. Global debt was reaching record levels and rapid technological change was disrupting the way that goods and services were produced, traded
and consumed.
The International Trade
Centre supports recovery
and resilience of SMEs
The year 2019 ended with a sense that the global economy was in for a turbulent 2020. Tensions between major trading powers were on the rise, there continued
to be concerns about inequality within and between countries, and climate change remained high on the agenda, ranking
as the top global business risk in a 2019 survey of insurance industry experts. Global debt was reaching record levels
and rapid technological change was disrupting the way that goods and services were produced, traded and consumed.
Close
However, vulnerable groups such as women and youth often struggle to access such platforms. Women and young entrepreneurs lead most MSMEs – as both informal traders and cross-border traders. They require extensive training to truly engage with the platform and trade itself. Thus, we look to ITC’s initiatives for entrepreneurs, such as SheTrades and the Youth and Trade Programme, and we hope to work together to develop more programmes to empower African MSMEs.
The way forward:
A new paradigm
ITC has been a great partner to
the AfCFTA and the African Union
in advancing trade on the continent.
It contributed significantly by helping to
set up the African Trade Observatory, an online market intelligence platform that provides information and data on African trade and markets. MSMEs can use this great tool to guide their trading activities.
The effective implementation of AfCFTA
will provide African enterprises with the space they need to thrive and create synergies, raising the profile and volume
of investment in the continent. Trade integration creates an opportunity for MSMEs to grow, and it also increases
the attractiveness of Africa as an investment destination.
The African Union has already initiated
a framework to develop digital trade infrastructure so as to implement the
trade agreement. We will build on this work to set in motion a new paradigm for economic growth and social development.
Governments: Understand
needs of MSMEs, provide skill development training and make
it easier to access finance and new technologies. This will empower small firms in intra-African trade.
Governments must understand the needs of MSMEs, provide skill development training and make it easier for them to access finance and new technologies. This will empower small firms and ensure that they are more involved in intra-
African trade.
ITC has an important role to play to
support AfCFTA member states and their enterprises as we manage the crisis today and begin to consolidate tomorrow. Africa cannot emerge economically without participating more in manufactured goods trade. For this to happen, policymakers and business support groups need more skills and knowledge about regional trade facilitation and export market access.
More than ever, the creation of a single continental market remains a game changer. However, there are prerequisites for this free trade area to become a potent reality. Member states must converge on rules and regulations governing trade,
to give the business community needed visibility for their investment. Specialized institutions and the business sector must work together to harmonize product standards, so MSMEs can better target regional markets.
Voluntary policies targeting capacity building and regional coordination are essential to reap more than the implicit benefits of the AfCFTA. Greater capacity will be needed as industry is revitalized and regional trade grows. This means the next challenge will be cooperating regionally, to attract investment to diversify production.
Spurring investment
to diversify production
The vulnerability of MSMEs and start-ups stems from a lack of market space to grow, compete and thrive. Without growth, they can create neither sustainability nor resilience to future crises. The trade environment in Africa today, coupled
with the even greater challenges of
limited access to finance and small national markets, does not encourage MSMEs to grow beyond their borders.
The AfCFTA can act as a catalyst for these enterprises to achieve greater economic efficiency to meet the demands of an integrated market. Opening borders to trade will accelerate the reconfiguration of value chains, by easing cross trade of raw materials and semi-finished goods. Integrating regional trade by lifting all tariffs and technical barriers will create
a market of 1.2 billion consumers.
A catalyst to support
small firms
Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in Africa’s economy. Their importance became even more pronounced as the global downturn wreaked havoc on the export-led travel, hospitality and extractive industries – sectors dominated by big companies. Providing MSMEs with an ecosystem that nurtures investment and opening borders for their development is a precondition for post-coronavirus recovery – and beyond,
it is a foundation for resilient economic and social development.
African MSMEs are characterized by low productivity, limited access to financial resources and a negligible role in regional and global value chains and the trading system. The current foreign exchange crunch is compelling member states to address the competitiveness gap of their MSMEs, by directing scarce resources towards investments in the productive sector. This has a significant social and economic impact.
Seizing the crisis to unlock
the vast potential of Africa’s pharmaceuticals market will be
a key achievement for AfCFTA
in its early years of existence.
Fighting the pandemic has led us back to the drawing board to reset our priorities
for AfCFTA. We called for adequate support (including financial) for small
drug companies so they could expand their production capacity and improve
the range and the sophistication of their output. Seizing the crisis to unlock the vast potential of Africa’s pharmaceuticals market will indeed be a key achievement for the AfCFTA in its early years
of existence.
The AfCFTA Secretariat supported
this positive development by advocating
for the establishment of deep value
chains to boost intra-African trade and accelerate investment in pharmaceutical industries. While trade information was non-existent at the beginning of the pandemic, a catalogue of African drug companies and production is now being compiled. It will be circulated to relevant national authorities. With the African
Union Commission, we are looking into harnessing digital trade and e-commerce as key drivers to implement
AfCFTA effectively.
Nevertheless, the AfCFTA has
capitalized on the goodwill of member states to provide the impetus to coordinate national and regional institutions that ensures coherent policymaking and
better coordination with the private
sector, by bridging the information gap.
In a sense, the disruption in the global supply chain caused by COVID-19 – and the economic downturn that followed – provide a powerful rationale for the immediate implementation of AfCFTA,
as a vehicle to spur economic growth
and build resilience across the continent.
African businesses, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, have been at the forefront of the pandemic response. They have unveiled many innovations, from providing medicines and medical equipment to redesigning new supply chains to prevent shortages. The AfCFTA must embrace this new spirit of industrial development in Africa.
A model of development
that depends heavily on raw commodity exports has
reached its limits.
The AfCFTA plays a vanguard role in spurring rapid industrialization through regional trade integration: a focus on
small industrial enterprises to boost trade among African states and create jobs.
As a by-product of regional integration, industrialization will strengthen economic diversification and resilience.
Resetting priorities
The AfCFTA has a dual track approach.
In the short term, its priority is to ensure that intra-African trade continues to grow, by alleviating trade restrictions while promoting a policy of ‘local production
first’ whenever available and competitive.
In the medium term, the AfCFTA’s
strategy is to champion the development
of a credible pharmaceutical industry capable of meeting Africa’s growing demand, and even playing a role in
the global market.
Recognizing the effect of border closures on trade, the Assembly of Heads of States of the AU established trade corridors or ‘green lanes’ that allow for the free flow
of essential medical goods used in the fight against the pandemic. Support and resources also were garnered for the pharmaceutical industry to produce affordable medicines and medical equipment to meet African demand.
The AfCFTA is a nascent giant. It is respected by its partners for its potential strategic significance to become the largest and most dynamic regional market by 2030. Unfortunately, the pandemic struck just as the AfCFTA’s organizational framework was being finalized, delaying many milestones scheduled for 2020.
Mitigating the pandemic’s effects is not only the priority for today.
It is vital to salvage past gains
and to maintain carefully laid plans for the future.
The AfCFTA is anchored on trade liberalization, even as global supply chain disruption is likely to further deteriorate the world’s overall sanitary position. Member states require fair access to critical equipment. The AfCFTA Secretariat encourages member states to turn this crisis into an opportunity by redeploying their production so there is an extraordinary increase in the fabrication
of drugs, personal protective equipment, soap, hand sanitizers, intensive care unit beds, testing kits and even ventilators.
Calls for debt relief in international fora overshadow the perennial reality of Africa’s marginal role in global supply chains, which creates a recurrent shortage of foreign exchange. This limits the continent’s ability to absorb the fallout of a sharp downturn in the global economy. As the effects of the pandemic deepen and the crisis grows in magnitude, it is clear that a model of development that depends heavily on raw commodity exports has reached its limits.
The pandemic highlights the need for African Union members to manufacture more pharmaceuticals. Some countries, such as Egypt and Morocco, rapidly boosted production to meet demand. However, many African governments
face limited access to essential drugs
and health equipment due to shortages aggravated by restrictions that many countries imposed on exports of
medical supplies (including personal protection equipment).
Africa must step up
production of drugs
and medical supplies
The AfCFTA is a far-reaching initiative, designed to foster industrial development and ensure Africa’s prosperity. To this
end, it seeks to create an institutional ecosystem to address the continent’s marginal role in global value chains,
its structural trade imbalance and its overreliance on bumpy commodity markets – namely, mineral resources
and fossil fuels.
The global drop in industrial production means less demand for key African exports amid a collapse of international trade and a disproportionate decline in the terms of exchange.
The pandemic has not only crippled the production sector; it has also ruined the travel and hospitality industry, which had flourished for two decades. The obliteration of services trade and the predicted sharp decline in international remittances due to the global recession are shaking the foundations of the prevalent model of growth, steered
by the tertiary sector.
The coronavirus pandemic has triggered
a new economic paradigm that is as unprecedented and radical as the Great Depression. Although the economic consequences of this global crisis are
still unfolding, its impact on African economies is already alarming.
For the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and other multilateral bodies, mitigating the effects of the pandemic is not only the priority for today. It is also vital to salvage past gains and to maintain carefully laid plans for the future.
More than ever, the creation
of a single continental market remains a game changer.
African Continental
Free Trade Area
Secretary General
Wamkele Mene
Close
Expand and facilitate access
to finance for SMEs, including those run by women or young entrepreneurs.
Improve border management
of trade to streamline access
to essential products.
Hasten progress towards the digitalization of trade documents and procedures, in collaboration with the private sector.
Prepare to operate in a new global economy that is more digital and geared towards resilience, inclusiveness
and sustainability.
11
12
13
14
15
Resist trade protectionism and facilitate trade to enable the movement of essential products.
Prepare immediate response
to the crisis:
Get ready for the new normal:
Recommendations
for governments
Coordinate collective actions
by SMEs for resilience, scale
and efficiency.
Be both global and local to
inform and reduce the risks
that business owners must
take during the crisis.
Use digital platforms to enhance the competitiveness and agility
of SMEs in reaching customers.
Be a leader in an ecosystem enabling SMEs to thrive within
a new global economy that is more digital and geared towards resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability.
6
7
8
9
10
Channel flow of trusted information and build bridges
to deploy solutions rapidly.
Prepare immediate response
to the crisis:
Get ready for the new normal:
Recommendations
for business support organizations
Optimize cash management and identify efficiency gains.
Reorient activities and resources to ensure business continuity during the lockdown.
Foster relationships by improving communications with partners and employees.
Build business models that foster resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability and that ride the digital wave.
1
2
3
4
5
Adapt business processes
by applying common-sense precautions and restructuring operations.
Prepare immediate response
to the crisis:
Get ready for the new normal:
Recommendations
for businesses
A 15-POINT ACTION PLAN
This scenario opens up opportunities
for regional supply chains to diversify
the global supply of such goods.
Opportunities abound to reorganize
supply chains at the regional level, especially for personal protective equipment and disinfectants.
Just five countries – China, Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, and the US − account for half of the world exports
of such products. Many of the supplies needed are exported by countries in Africa, the Americas and the Pacific.
Lesson 1
Boost regional supply chains for essential goods
Lesson 2
Chambers of commerce, sector associations, trade and investment support institutions, and cooperatives have an opportunity to make a difference.
They can bring firms together, match business opportunities with a shared offer or common need, and test willingness
to cooperate in ways that are fair and
respect commercial sensitivities. Businesses working together can reduce costs through shared procurement, create economies of scale and access new opportunities by sharing knowledge
and resources.
Lesson 2
Step up
support from business support organizations
Lesson 2
Supply chains that circle the globe will continue to be part of the international trade landscape. The resilience of these supply chains – which include many
small and medium-sized firms – matters. Buyers in lead firms have a significant
role in directing supply chains, as they influence production practices, branding, sourcing and sales.
Multiagency and partner platforms
are essential – to advocate for stronger partnerships between major buyers and suppliers, and a fair distribution of risks.
Brands and retailers could limit the effects of COVID-19 and future crises on their supply chains, including by committing to:
Resilient supply chains can transmit knowledge, provide stability and generate agility. Proposals exist to link supply chain
players to the multilateral trading system, for instance, by creating supply
chain councils.
Pay manufacturers for finished goods and goods in production;
Maintain quick, effective and open lines of communication with supply chain partners on business operations and future planning.
•
•
Lesson 3
Encourage buyers to create resilient supply chains
work together to develop more programmes to empower African MSMEs.
Data on 2547 businesses in 127 countries. Response rates vary across countries and regions. In order to control for sector composition, shares are calculated at the sector level and then aggregated using simple averages.
The values indicate the predicted loss of manufacturing exports in 2020.
Note:
The values indicate the predicted loss of manufacturing exports in 2020.
Note:
