China is the main contributor to demand growth
Refined copper consumption changes (kt) 2020-2050
25.7Mt
2034*
4.7Mt
Mine output peak
Supply gap
* Projects must be sanctioned to 710 kt pa
Copper prices peak (near term)
to constant (2034)
$10,073/t
($4.57/lb)
$8,267/t
($3.75/lb)
Long-term
demand needs:
Increased green
end-use off-take
A macroeconomic recovery
The ramping-up of semis projects
Global refined copper capacity growth
4.8% in 2024 to 27.1 Mt
China's growth by
5.2% from 2023
to 4.0Mt
Africa's growth at 2.7 Mt to 2028
Latin America's decline by
1.5% annually from 2024 to 2034
Asia's (ex China) growth by
13% (Indonesia) and 29% (India) in 2024
Europe’s growth to 3.3 Mt by 2027
Global copper production and primary demand
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Base case production capability
Possible projects
Probable projects
Primary demand
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Mt
0
5
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15
20
25
30
35
40
2000
2005
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2020
2025
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2035
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China
RoW
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300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
000 tonnes
Latin America
Russia & Caspian
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The future of the
copper market
by year
2026
by year
Rapid adoption of copper-intensive technologies will drive high future demand
We expect above average 2.0% annual global refined consumption growth between 2024 and 2034
Global refined metal market balance
Drivers of demand
Supply demand balance
Decarbonisation
Electrification
Urbanisation
Population growth
INFOGRAPHIC
to peak to
* Projects must be sanctioned to 710 kt pa
Mine output
Supply gap
by year
2026
25.7Mt
2034*
4.7Mt
Click countries for statistics
Asia's (ex China) growth by
13% (Indonesia) and 29% (India) in 2024
China's growth by
5.2% from 2023
to 4.0Mt
Africa's growth at 2.7 Mt to 2028
Latin America's decline by
1.5% annually from 2024 to 2034
Europe’s growth to 3.3 Mt by 2027
Asia's (ex China) growth by
13% (Indonesia) & 29% (India) in 2024
China's growth by
5.2% from 2023
to 4.0Mt
Africa's growth at 2.7 Mt to 2028
Europe’s growth to 3.3 Mt by 2027
Latin America's decline by
1.5% annually from 2024 to 2034