In the face of economic uncertainty and global unrest, it can be a challenge to make predictions about advertising revenue around the world. One thing that jumps out in WPP Media’s 2025 Global Midyear This Year Next Year forecast is that as chaotic as the world may seem, advertising remains resilient. Our ad revenue forecast now projects a global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2025 and 2030, compared to the 6.4% five-year CAGR (2024-2029) from last December’s forecast.
growth
trillion
in advertising projected for 2025
in total ad revenue (excluding U.S. political advertising revenue)
Global Ad Revenue Growth
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Globalization, Interrupted
Future Perfect: AI, Agentic AI, and Autonomy
A Change Would Do You Good
After a broadly consistent trend of increasing economic openness and the expanding role of trade in economic growth over the last two centuries, the current disruption of global trade and economic deglobalization — shifting trading activity into aligned “blocs” — is a significant break.
AI is transforming content, commerce, communication, transportation, and all the other fields related to advertising and media. Whether you believe “superintelligence” is around the corner, or current models remain just “bags of heuristics,” the impact of their integration into business processes and customer journeys will be substantial.
We ultimately believe that change — especially change leading to increased competition within industries — is positive for growth and resilience. Human adaptability and firm adaptability — that is the ability for companies and their workers to embrace change and innovate — are crucial to our expectations for the future of the advertising industry.
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Three key themes of this forecast that tie our past TYNY analyses to the current political and economic climate.
Our new methodology
Top 10 Markets
2026 Growth
5.4%
2025 Growth
5.6%
2025 Ad Revenue (Ex-Political)
$404.7 B
United States
01
2026 Growth
6.9%
2025 Growth
6.8%
2025 Ad Revenue
$211.6 B
China
02
2026 Growth
4.0%
2025 Growth
4.0%
2025 Ad Revenue
$50.5 B
Japan
04
2026 Growth
6.1%
2025 Growth
6.5%
2025 Ad Revenue
$55.0 B
United Kingdom
03
2026 Growth
7.9%
2025 Growth
5.5%
2025 Ad Revenue
$38.0 B
Germany
05
2026 Growth
5.4%
2025 Growth
4.9%
2025 Ad Revenue
$30.7 B
France
06
2026 Growth
6.6%
2025 Growth
11.9%
2025 Ad Revenue
$23.1 B
Brazil
07
2026 Growth
8.3%
2025 Growth
8.4%
2025 Ad Revenue
$21.3 B
India
09
2026 Growth
6.3%
2025 Growth
5.1%
2025 Ad Revenue
$22.6 B
Canada
08
2026 Growth
5.2%
2025 Growth
4.1%
2025 Ad Revenue
$17.7 B
Australia
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Advertising in 2030
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The full This Year Next Year report is available to WPP Media clients. To access or learn more, please email business.intelligence@wppmedia.com
Explore previous editions of This Year Next Year:
Nidhi Shah Analyst, Business Intelligence
Kate Scott-Dawkins President, Business Intelligence
This report is authored by:
Jeff Foster Associate Director, Business Intelligence
We asked a non-random sample of more than 60 industry experts to rate the likelihood of 20 scenarios by the year 2030. We also asked for their reasoning behind the score. The research was carried out from April 1 – April 30, 2025. The expert outlook for 2030, viewed through the lens of the past five years, suggests a future where technological integration, particularly involving biometrics and AI assistance, continues its advance. However, faith in radical shifts in consumer behavior (prioritizing environment over price) or global cooperation (privacy standards) has waned. We will be releasing a standalone report with more detail and quotes from our experts later in 2025.
Content
01
Location
04
Intelligence
03
Commerce
02
Commerce
02
Intelligence
03
Location
04
Content
01
Intelligence
03
Location
04
Content
01
Commerce
02
Content
01
Commerce
02
Intelligence
03
Location
04
TV, including both traditional and streaming TV, is expected to grow 1.0% in 2025 to $162.5 billion. Streaming TV will represent just over a quarter of the total ($41.8 billion) in 2025, but will increase rapidly over the next five years, reaching $71.9 billion in 2030, or more than 40% of the TV total. Print revenue (excluding U.S. political), including both newspapers and magazines, is projected to decline by -3.1% in 2025, reaching $45.5 billion. Audio, which does now include additional video advertising formats attached to podcasts and other content, is set to remain roughly flat in 2025 at $26.5 billion with growth in streaming audio offsetting a slight decline in terrestrial audio (-1.7%).
Out-of-home (OOH) advertising has maintained its share of total advertising better than any other “traditional” advertising format over the past 20 years, and it is expected to maintain its post-COVID recovery share of 4.8% in 2023 through the end of our forecast in 2030 when it will total $68.2 billion, 1.8 times its 2019 size. The OOH advertising market is expected to see continued growth, with China expected to remain the largest market through 2030, followed by the U.S. and Japan. Digital OOH is estimated to account for 41% of total OOH advertising revenue in 2025. Cinema hasn’t fared as well, although its share of total ad revenue is also expected to remain stable through 2030 at 0.2%. This is down from the 0.5% share it enjoyed in 2018. Total cinema ad revenue is predicted to increase 5.1% in 2025 to $2.1 billion and reach $2.4 billion in 2030.
Commerce-driven media is all about tying media to purchase data. In a world where media is everywhere and in everything, commerce and data are too. Commerce-driven media extends beyond retailers, marketplaces, and last-mile delivery services, encompassing sectors such as travel and financial services. Note that this definition is broader than our reported “Retail Media” segment of advertising revenue, which includes revenue only from retailers and last-mile delivery companies. In 2025, we expect narrowly defined retail media revenue will total $169.6 billion and will increase at a compound annual rate of 8.2% to reach $252.1 billion in 2030 when it will account for 18.0% of total ad revenue.
The intelligence category could see significant changes in terms of ad-seller share and consumer behavior, and yet the forecast revenue may not necessarily show that in its relative stability. There are multiple factors at play worth teasing out:
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Search happening outside of traditional search engines
Answer engines like OpenAI and Gemini transforming consumer behavior
Regulatory decisions impacting search-engine monopolies
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For the first time, WPP Media’s TYNY report reclassifies advertising activity under four key categories: Content, Commerce, Location, and Intelligence, offering a more nuanced lens on where investment is headed.
We are currently predicting that intelligence (search) revenue will grow 7.4% in 2025, excluding the impact of U.S. political advertising, to $226.2 billion.
Location
04
Intelligence
03
Location
04
Content
01
Commerce
02
Commerce
02
Content
01
Intelligence
03
Our experts have spoken. Now it's your turn. Share your insights on the future of the advertising industry by taking the same survey used in our latest report.
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