2024 Winter Construction Market Trends Skanska 2024 Winter Construction Market Trends Report

Construction Market Trends

Stay up to date on the dynamics of the construction industry with Skanska USA Building’s Construction Market Trends Report. Explore regional construction escalation insights and forecasts, supply chain lead times, material pricing and critical market indices through this interactive report.

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Winter 2024

Since the beginning of the economy’s rebound—and subsequent substantial growth in many sectors—from the COVID-19 pandemic, the construction industry has experienced unprecedented cost escalation and supply chain disruption. Recently, construction indices have shown flattening in cost escalation. With elevated interest rates impacting project financing in multiple sectors and remote work stymieing the commercial office market, projects that are proceeding are benefiting with improved, predictable subcontractor bid results. Particularly in the civil, structural and architectural trades, our local Preconstruction Teams are seeing more interested bidders given the pullback in the aforementioned sectors and, as a result, more competitive bids (in general) coming in at or below the estimated cost. With that, two qualifications: 1. Many regions are indicating mechanical and electrical trades are in a different position. As we have reported consistently for the past two or more years, the significant growth in data centers, tech manufacturing, EV-related facilities and pharmaceutical construction continues to strain the MEP trades. Pricing levels in those trades continue to climb, and supply chain issues persist, particularly in electrical switchgear and emergency generator manufacturing. 2. The competitiveness of bids varies by location. Some regions are still experiencing labor strains due to escalated volume in local growth sectors, which impacts their bidding environment and construction costs. Check out insights from our local Preconstruction Teams in the Forecast Map section of this report.

Mitigation Recommendations

Consider alternative manufacturers

For prospective projects, evaluate your local market conditions to understand potential shifts that could yield improved budgets.

Understand the constraints of the local utility company

Construction Pricing Stabilizes

Continue to evaluate the major power equipment

With the volatility of the MEP trades, consider alternative procurement approaches such as design-build or design-assist, where possible, with qualified MEP contractors. In traditional procurement models, interview local and regional MEP trade subcontractors early to presell your project and develop a purchasing plan that reflects the input of these key trades.

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Steve Stouthamer

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Market Sentiment

Local Forecast

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Consider alternative manufacturers or temporary solutions for power needs to abate lead time issues.

Consider alternative procurement approaches

Evaluate your local market conditions

For prospective projects, evaluate your local market conditions to understand potential shifts that could yield improved budgets.

Mitigation Recommendations

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Winter 2024 Construction Pricing Snapshot

Next: Local Forecasts Map

Materials and Commodities

Industry Indices

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13,498

Current Construction Cost Index

8,256

Building Cost Index

+0.09%

1-Month change

+0.2%

1-Month change

Construction Cost Indices

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of January 2024

Materials Index

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of June 2023

Construction Cost Indices

Spending

Building Cost Index

Materials Index

U.S. Employment

Architecture

Unemployment

Click an index or material to view details

Building Cost Index

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of August 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics All data as of January 2024

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

U.S. construction unemployment increased to 6.9 percent as of January 2024. However, this is the third-lowest January rate on record as unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted, and the figure is flat year-over-year from January 2023. Construction added jobs for the tenth consecutive month, nearly 11,000 jobs in January. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.7 percent, with the addition of 216,000 jobs in December 2023. Sectors seeing positive employment trends include government, healthcare and construction, while the transportation and warehousing sectors lost jobs.

U.S. Unemployment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Dodge Data & Analytics Construction spending data for November 2023 and Dodge Momentum data is from December 2023

“Construction starts ended the year on a positive note. Looking ahead, the new year provides promise that positive momentum will continue to build,” said Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Construction Network. Construction starts grew 20 percent in December 2023, and most notably, nonresidential building starts rose 37 percent in the month. Total construction starts for the full year of 2023 lost 4 percent.

Construction Starts and Dodge Momentum Index

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of January 2024

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

Skilled Labor Index and Common Labor Index

The ENR Skilled and Common Labor indexes saw normal, moderate annual increases. ENR does not include technical skilled crafts in these indexes (Electricians / Mechanics) which have been under extreme pressure to meet demands in high-tech sectors such as mission critical/data centers, semi-conductor manufacturing and EV manufacturing. In some geographic markets with a shortage of key craft workers, high-tech sector projects are offering premium wage scales to attract the limited qualified workforce.

Skilled Labor and Common Labor Indices

Source: AIA, All data as of December 2023

This Architecture Billings Index (ABI) demonstrates whether or not architectural firms are billing for or signing new design contracts. The construction industry feels the impact of this index with a 9-to-12-month lag time.

In December 2023, the AIA Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 45.4 signaled more softening conditions for architecture firms. AIA reported, “Billings at firms declined for eight months of the year.” However, backlogs at firms were strong, with an average of 6.7 months. When asked about delayed vs. canceled projects, 86 percent of firm leaders reported significant delays over the past six months, while 64 percent had canceled or abandoned projects.

December ABI Report

Architecture Billings Index

Fuels and Natural Gas

Structural Steel Inputs

Concrete and Cement

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Asphalt

Lumber and Wood

Piping

Metals

Fuels and Natural Gas

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration All data as of January 2024

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index, Drywall and Insulation data as of January 2024, Gypsum data as of December 2023

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Source: Steel Benchmarker All data as of January 2024

Structural Steel Inputs

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index PG 58 data as of February 2024 WPU058102 data as of January 2024

Asphalt

As we previously predicted, fuel prices declined as we moved into the winter. Higher than average seasonal temperatures have contributed, and experts also point towards the weakening Chinese economy creating a slight overage in the global crude oil supply.

While the BLS PPI index suggested a 12-month climb of 16 percent or more (5.8% for the quarter), the performance grade (PG) asphalt 58 costs per ton index only increased 2.6 percent in that same 12 month) period (-.3% for the quarter). Our recent market experience suggests the pace of asphalt pricing increases in 2023 was much closer to the PG 58 index.

Despite ups and downs in cold rolled coil and hot rolled bands, Structural steel pricing remains relatively flat for the quarter. The exception is hollow structural sections (HSS), which have been trending upward due to increases in coil steel (HRC) from which HSS is produced. Additionally, the high demand from certain markets, such as solar, is impacting HSS pricing.

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of December 2023

Concrete and Cement

Concrete supply is generally stable, but due to the regional/local nature of ready mix markets, some local shortages may occur. In terms of pricing, the steady increases previously seen in 2023 have leveled off.

PVC: PVC pipe prices continued to decline due to soft residential demand and lower resin costs. Copper: Due to steady commercial demand, copper pipe prices have remained flat over the past three months. Steel: Over the last quarter, a rebound in demand from the automotive industry has slowed price decreases.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index All data as of December 2023

Piping

Lumber pricing remains flat at pre-COVID levels. As we move into 2024, all eyes are on the housing market, particularly its spring selling season and anticipated interest rate cuts.

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Plywood and 2x4 S4S data as of January 2024 Lumber and Plywoo4d data as of December 2023

Lumber and Wood

Nickel price decreases have continued and are close to a three-year low. Zinc pricing has remained relatively flat as demand continues to be low, in part due to the industrial outlook for China. Aluminum prices are generally stable. Copper prices increased slightly due to the long-term outlook that demand will outpace supply.

Source: Kitco All data as of February 2024

Metals

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

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The ENR Materials Index cooled in the second half of 2023, which resulted in an annual increase of 4.5 percent. This cooling contributed to the modest increases in the BCI and CCI indexes. Similar to the BCI and CCI, the Materials Index does not factor in the mechanical and electrical equipment cost impacts that have driven project costs higher than traditional measures of construction inflation.

Both of ENR’s leading indicators, Building Cost Index (BCI) and Construction Cost Index (CCI) remained flat for the past five months, resulting in an annualized change of 3-4 percent. However, neither index reflects the continued dynamics of the mechanical and electrical supply chains, which are driving project estimates to reflect higher escalation outcomes and take a cautious approach in escalation forecasting.

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

Availability and pricing of drywall continue to be stable. However, lead times for mineral wool insulation have extended significantly. Lead times of 4-6 months should be expected for the remainder of 2024.

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+2.0%

6-Month change

+2.5%

1-Year change

+17.0%

3-Year change

+3.2%

6-Month change

+3.7%

1-Year change

+30.1%

3-Year change

Market Sentiment

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Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of January 2024

Labor

Use this slider to modify the timeframe of the data shown on the graph. Click on the graph for specific pricing data points.

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Forecasting Local 2024 Construction Costs

This map reflects local USA Building Project Planning Services team leaders’ opinions of market volume and capacity and is not based on published analytics or third-party forecasts.

Click the map pins to see forecast details for a specific city or region.

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Seattle

Portland

Orlando

Tampa

New Jersey

New York

Boston

Connecticut

Phoenix

Philadelphia

Washington D.C.

North Carolina/ Virginia

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Nashville

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Boston/New England

Uncertainty in the world markets with China's recession, wars in the Middle East and Asia, the U.S. election cycle, and slow returns to office all contribute to some hesitation for investors. High interest rates are negatively impacting construction starts in multi-family and commercial life science spaces, as evidenced by the flood of commercial office and lab space for rent on the primary and secondary markets. With this slowdown, many larger private companies want to leverage capital to take advantage of a dip in the local market. This would benefit projects such as private education, aviation, transportation and other market segments where owners can use their capital for investments. The private pharmaceutical market is still seeing spending on manufacturing. Current market consolidation and competition for market share are driving local healthcare spending. The healthcare market should maintain this healthy spending over the next few years, with large-scale projects working through the approval process.

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Matt Impastato, Vice President of Preconstruction, Boston.

Winter chill settles in for Boston market

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Next: Supply Chain

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Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

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Miami/ Ft. Lauderdale

Seattle

Portland

Orlando

Tampa

New Jersey

New York

Boston

Phoenix

Philadelphia

Washington D.C.

N. Carolina/ Virginia

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Nashville

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Atlanta, GA

Atlanta is beginning to see a shift from the traditional corporate commercial, higher education and healthcare markets to future-ready markets such as mission critical, technology, and manufacturing and distribution/warehousing. The shift adds pressure to a labor market already strained by the rapid pace of several large data center projects underway. The strong growth in the manufacturing and distribution/warehousing sectors adds additional pressure on the skilled labor market. The timing of project starts will be critical to the success of attracting subcontractor participation. The tech sector focused projects have put upward pressure on mechanical and eletrical equipment lead times and costs, but these projects are less complex architecturally and we have seen more stable prices in architectural, civil and structural trades in recent months.

Shift in market sectors adds to labor pressure

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dane Wooley, Preconstruction Director in Atlanta.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Cincinnati, OH

The local construction market remains strong, with most market sectors stable or busy. The only significant market sector currently slow is developer-led corporate commercial office space. However, private commercial development has remained strong. While the supply chain issues and large material price escalation have mostly diminished, there is still significant wage escalation pressure. This wage pressure will increase overall construction cost escalation in the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana region for 6-12 months.

Construction demand remains strong

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Smoker, Vice President of Preconstruction in Cincinnati.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Dallas, TX

The DFW Metroplex continues to have opportunities entering 2024. In the aviation market, DFW airport is slated to release a new Terminal F and reconfiguration to the existing Terminal E, with a budget of $4 billion. The City of Dallas is planning an expansion to the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center (KBHCC), with a budget of $3.7 billion. The City of Fort Worth also plans to expand its convention center, with a budget of $400 million. In the healthcare market, several large projects are in the planning stages, including UTSW-Children's replacement hospital with a budget of $2 billion, JPS's new bed tower and pavilion with a budget of $800million, and Terrell State Hospital with a budget of $400 million. In the higher education market, Collin County College District allocated $360 million of work on three campuses. The K-12 market continues to be hot as more people relocate into the area. Prosper ISD approved a new bond worth $2.7 billion to build new schools, a performing arts center and safety and security upgrades to their existing campuses.

With the new year comes new opportunities

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Washington, D.C.

Demand for multi-family housing remains strong, but rising costs and interest rates have stalled new construction starts. During this slowdown, some developers explore office-to-apartment conversions for viability, while others with available capital assess purchase opportunities on distressed properties. This slowdown in office and multi-family markets has forced more competition in K-12 and higher education markets from contractors not traditionally active in these markets. In science and tech, the market is generally slow, but we see continued high demand for life science facilities in Maryland. The construction market for data centers in Northern Virginia remains active, expanding to other parts of Virginia and Maryland due to the strain on the power grid in localized markets. Additionally, data center and electrification-related construction are still straining the labor, equipment, and subcontractor resources, specifically in the mechanical and electrical trades. This strain continues to cause steady escalation and increasingly long lead times. We continue recommending early procurement to our clients for mechanical and electrical equipment and using design-assist subcontractors to support these efforts. In most other trades, escalation and lead times have stabilized to traditional levels.

Slowdown in office and multi-family forces increased competition in stable markets

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Strawbridge, Preconstruction Director in Washington, D.C.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Houston, TX

Although Houston has shown a dramatic slowdown in commercial development in both office and mixed-use, other market sectors remain stable and, in some cases, grow. One of these is in healthcare, with Memorial Hermann planning on two new hospital towers for Katy and Clear Lake with a combined budget of $600 million. Harris Health System is underway with their new LBJ replacement hospital with a budget of $1 billion. The University of Texas and MD Anderson Cancer Center are in partnership on a new cancer treatment hub with a budget of $2.5 billion. Another market sector that continues to grow is K-12. Alief ISD approved a bond of $500 million for district-wide improvements. Aldine ISD approved a bond of $1.8 billion to build, renovate, and update safety and security projects throughout their district.

Resilience and growth amidst looming uncertainty

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Los Angeles, CA

In Los Angeles, signs of slowing have manifested in the commercial building sector, with little to no office starts and subdued activity in retail and hotels. The institutional, multifamily and aviation sectors are proving more resilient and resistant to economic slowdown. An increasing trend of adaptive reuse and renovation projects and the integration of smart building technologies and automation highlight the need for adaptability in the region. A more stable supply chain is a welcome sight, with only a handful of manufactured components still proving problematic. The market continues to face challenges related to a skilled labor shortage, emphasizing the need for workforce development initiatives to attract and retain talent.

During signs of slowing, adaptability is fundamental

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Andy Kim, Preconstruction Manager in Los Angeles.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Miami-Dade and Lee counties are experiencing growth, impacting several market sectors, such as K-12, higher education and healthcare. Despite healthcare funding challenges, services are more important than ever as the population ages and grows. Additionally, some hospital facilities are aging and require upgrades and renovations to meet new building codes and technological advances. After recent events like Hurricane Ian and the 500-year storm that flooded Broward County, FEMA allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to the state to upgrade healthcare facilities. In aviation, increased travel and the prioritized transportation infrastructure improvements have contributed to all three major South Florida airports (MIA, FLL, PBI) looking to spend billions of dollars in recent funding. The same goes for the Ports. Labor demand in South Florida remains elevated. Trade partners report having to pay significantly higher wages to prevent poaching from competitors, including increasing contingencies for maintaining such labor through project completion. Regarding construction materials, most have held their recently stabilized price trends, but some continue escalating, such as concrete ready mix, cast iron piping, and electrical switchgear. Lead times for electrical equipment are still elevated, but the wait for some brands of mechanical equipment is starting to level off.

Strong growth creates competition for trade partners

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Walt Chislak, Preconstruction Manager in South Florida.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Nashville, TN

Nashville remains one of the high-growth cities in the U.S. The population migration trend to our sunbelt city continues to support growth in public and private construction markets even though market uncertainty affects commercial markets. The fate of private development projects, which have fueled much of Nashville’s recent growth, has yet to be seen. We still see some development projects going forward and anticipate the East Bank as the next frontier of both private and public work. Market sectors in middle Tennessee, such as public, infrastructure and higher ed, remain strong. Healthcare, mission-critical, aviation and manufacturing remain stable. The commercial office sector faces high vacancy rates, slowing office development. Urban multifamily developments are facing market saturation and more competitive rental rates. With the slowing of new commercial developments throughout 2023, subcontractor capacity and backlog have increased, resulting in improved bid coverage and more stable/tighter pricing. We anticipate more “normal” escalation rates throughout 2024 as the region and industry monitor economic conditions.

Nashville remains one of the high-growth cities in the U.S.

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Adam Hicks, Vice President of Preconstruction in Nashville.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

North Carolina/Virginia

The region continues to experience high population growth, promising opportunities for the industry, particularly in markets like K-12 and healthcare. In contrast, growth in other areas, including developer office and life science projects, has slowed substantially. Large-scale projects within the mission-critical, pharma, and advanced manufacturing sectors are ongoing, causing a significant resource draw, especially in MEP trades. This resource strain and ongoing equipment cost pressures have contributed to continued cost increases for these trades. Conversely, costs associated with CSA trades have largely stabilized. Despite sector-specific challenges, there's optimism about the overall market health due to a robust pipeline of projects spanning multiple sectors, including advanced manufacturing, revenue-generating healthcare projects, and public work.

Flattening CSA Costs Amid Intense MEP Resource Demands

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Will Senner, Vice President of Preconstruction in North Carolina and Virginia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New Jersey

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) 2026 Capitol Plan includes $32.2 billion for infrastructure improvements, with $2.05 billion going towards a new AirTrain linking the Northeast Corridor (NJ Transit and AMTRAK) to the new EWR Newark Liberty Airport Terminal A and existing Terminal C. The PANYNJ is releasing this project in multiple design-build packages, with the most recent award of $570 million to the Doppelmayr Group out of Austria. In higher education, Princeton University and the Princeton Planning Board will review a concept plan for a new 467,000-SF complex dedicated to Quantum Science and Engineering. “The Quantum Institute” would include three linked buildings on the East Campus near Powers Field at Princeton Stadium, the Tigers’ home football field since 1998. RWJBarnabas Health and its partners currently have more than $1 billion worth of new cancer treatment facilities under construction in healthcare. The largest project—a 12-story, 510,000-SF, $750 million facility—will provide cancer prevention and clinical care services in New Brunswick. Other projects include a five-story, 137,000-SF, $225 million hub for cancer-related services in Livingston and a $200 million outpatient center in Tinton Falls. All three buildings are scheduled to open in 2025.

Infrastructure upgrades, higher ed and healthcare remain strong

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Nick Culver, Vice President of Preconstruction in New Jersey.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New York, NY

In New York, healthcare institutions continue providing new projects for Q4 2023 into Q1 2024. Several institutions look to spend more on infrastructure as they bring their facilities into the 21st century. Healthcare REITs are looking for acquisitions of senior living and assisted living properties. Life sciences projects are still active, with several significant projects in the Metro Region backed by NYC through 2024. However, developer life sciences have slowed as interest rates have risen and developments have had difficulty obtaining tenants. Similarly, the commercial office sector remains slow as tenant rates are at all-time lows. Cultural institutions and other public domain projects have recently come online, providing fresh activity in these sectors through Q2 2024.

Looking forward to a robust year in healthcare and S&T

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with John Tamborino, Vice President of Preconstruction in New York.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Orlando, FL

The competition for labor, specifically those in higher-skilled trades such as electrical, HVAC, and plumbing, has caused dramatic increases in costs for these construction services. Companies who perform these trades weigh risks associated with being unable to perform the work they are contracted to do and are pricing work accordingly. While commodity-driven components have leveled off, wages have increased, and anticipated production has fallen. Coupled with a lack of qualified firms able to perform large projects, the cost for these trades has risen to levels that would have seemed absurd just a year ago. We anticipate market correction, but this does not seem likely in the near future.

Labor shortages continue fueling escalation

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Stickrod, Vice President of Preconstruction in Orlando.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Philadelphia, PA

Philadelphia welcomes new mayor, Cherelle Parker, this year. With the change in leadership, new initiatives are being introduced to reenergize the market, especially in construction. One of the more significant initiatives is sustainability. Owners are integrating sustainable design into their new projects and balancing the competitive demand for adaptive reuse of older facilities that may need to be revised to present design standards. In healthcare, the outlook for new starts is positive and multiple projects are in the pipeline. There is substantial activity in preconstruction with Main Line Health, Thomas Jefferson University Health, Penn Medicine, Inspira, Cooper and CHOP. In higher education, local universities continue working through new ways of recruiting and educating students in person and virtually. We see residential hall projects, STEM-based additions, and new buildings in the pipeline for all the colleges and universities. Private life science campuses in our region continue developing, and we see many opportunities to support this growth spurt. Additionally, mixed-use developments are gaining traction, with many residential, commercial, and retail developments in the same building.

Healthcare and higher education markets remain strong

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with James Lane, Vice President of Preconstruction in Philadelphia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Phoenix, AZ

Real estate firm Newmark Group recently announced Phoenix as the top growth market for manufacturing construction in the U.S. Most of this construction is currently in the semiconductor, EV and solar industries. One example is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s facility, which is still going strong despite Phase 2 being delayed a year due to finances. Because of this strong market, the availability of skilled trade labor is limited, especially in the electrical and mechanical labor force.

Phoenix named top growth market for manufacturing construction in the U.S

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Feeney, Vice President of Preconstruction in Phoenix.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Portland, OR

The Portland market is experiencing a similar number of opportunities as compared to last quarter, but contractors are being more selective since competition is increasing. Private development is down substantially, especially in hospitality, senior housing, retail and office markets. The technology sector—data centers and semiconductor manufacturers—continues to power the market. Fees are stable around historical averages. A continued focus on diversity is encouraging partnerships for pursuits.

Opportunity similar to last quarter

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Steve Clem, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in Portland.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

San Antonio, TX

"San Antonio continues to experience steady construction growth across multiple sectors. Aviation is strong as construction on the $2 billion San Antonio International Airport (SAT) expansion and renovation will commence later this year. Healthcare and mission critical are stable with large ongoing projects in either preconstruction or construction phases in both sectors. The K-12 sector has billions of dollars of work in progress, and public higher education remains stable. However, the election cycle reduced new bond program opportunities in 2024 and will likely lead to a slight slowdown in these sectors. There is an enhanced focus on downtown growth in San Antonio. There are escalating discussions around the potential for new basketball and baseball sporting venues, which may lead to future construction opportunities. Additionally, San Antonio is home to Joint Base San Antonio (JBSA), which includes four primary military locations with potential upcoming federal opportunities. Subcontractor capacity is improving, leading to improved bid coverage, enhanced competition, and generally more predictable and favorable pricing, especially in the non-mechanical and electrical trades."

Continued growth and increased subcontractor capacity

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Chris Hillyer, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in San Antonio.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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San Francisco, CA

Aviation continues to thrive across the Bay Area. The most recent estimates suggest that demand for air transport will increase by an average of 4.3 percent per annum over the next 20 years. San Francisco International Airport's strategic plan for the next five years includes completing the Terminal 3 West Modernization Program, which will be mainly self-funded through passenger and retail revenue. Sacramento International Airport has a $1.3 billion garage and gate expansion program. Higher education is also flourishing with increased demand for student housing. The healthcare market is focused on small to midsize renovation projects rather than new construction, and funding for these projects is steady. Life science and commercial development continue to decline due to the low demand for lease space and the high cost of borrowing money. Tech companies are downsizing, putting more sub-lease space on the market and looking for lower-cost regions, such as Sacramento, for possible expansion. Despite softening in some sectors, like commercial office and life science, most local trade subcontractors still report labor challenges. The construction pricing in the greater Bay Area is still seeing escalation, but it is closer to the average pre-pandemic pace of escalation. Equipment lead times for electrical and mechanical continue to be longer than usual.

Aviation leads construction in the Bay Area

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Seattle, WA

Seattle's construction market remains buoyant. Residential is slow, with most projects completed and few projects starting. The commercial office market continues to struggle locally due to oversupply, as Amazon and Microsoft have non-renewed their leases amidst the public safety fears in downtown Seattle. However, strong growth in other sectors has offset this pause in commercial office and residential markets. For example, several providers are beginning to study new patient towers in healthcare. In post-pandemic years, we have seen significant growth in the data center, electrification and battery manufacturing sectors, especially in the Wenatchee market. Manufacturing/industrial and mission critical projects east of the mountains are starting to commence construction on data centers and an electrification manufacturing complex.

Construction market remains buoyant

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dan Curtiss, Vice President of Preconstruction in Seattle.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Tampa, FL

Tampa's job growth in construction remains one of the strongest in the country. This growth contributes to the continued strain on the availability of qualified trade workers and the increased labor costs for skilled labor in HVAC, plumbing and especially the electrical trade. Though local material supplies remain challenged, overall supply challenges have stabilized. The wait for mechanical equipment, such as RTUs, AHUs, and chillers, has leveled off. However, lead times for electrical equipment, particularly switchboards and switchgear, are still elevated.

Construction market remains strong, labor challenges persist

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Courtney, Preconstruction Manager in Tampa.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Connecticut

In Connecticut, the year 2023 continues to match the construction growth of 2022, as reported at less than one percent by the Connecticut State Department of Labor. All patterns from the summer are continuing into the fall—tight competition, slow private money, long lead times on certain components, and subcontractors are still protecting their margins. Despite these continued pressures, we anticipate a return to normal escalation over the next few months to a year.

Fall season not resulting in changing of patterns