2023 Fall Construction Market Trends Report

Construction Market Trends

Stay up to date on the dynamics of the construction industry with Skanska USA Building’s Construction Market Trends Report. Explore regional construction escalation insights and forecasts, supply chain lead times, material pricing and critical market indices through this interactive report.

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Fall 2023

For the past three years, we have been managing through arguably the most challenging construction supply chain of the modern era. While many products have become more predictable, major power equipment supply remains a challenge that will not likely improve in the foreseeable future. The root cause of this dilemma is directly related to the evolution of how we now work and live. Consider your mobile device as just one example. Each year, the functionality of devices is enhanced, and new releases offer improved video and cloud applications. As data storage requirements expand, the cloud grows. In 2010, the International Data Corporation—the world’s leading provider of market intelligence related to technology and data—reported that the volume of data/information created, captured, copied and consumed worldwide was approximately two zettabytes (ZB). In five years, that number grew to 15, then 64 by 2020 and is now estimated to be 181 ZB by 2025. This explosion of data generation is just one example of what is driving an unprecedented global demand for data center construction. This growth, amongst other factors—the investment in the manufacture and infrastructure of Electric Vehicles, the drive by state and local government for electrification of new buildings, and the public utility company's efforts to create the power supply that will enable this transformation—is impacting the electrical power equipment supply chain like no other time in our history. We will provide further insights on this phenomenon and how to navigate the electric power supply waters in the months and years that lie ahead on the upcoming Construction Market Trends Webinar.

Mitigation Recommendations

Consider alternative manufacturers

Continue to evaluate the major power equipment needs of new facilities early in the planning of the project. Perform an early lead time evaluation of the equipment via contact with acceptable manufacturers

Understand the constraints of the local utility company

Keeping Up with the Increasing Need for Electricity!

Continue to evaluate the major power equipment

Understand the constraints, if any, of the local utility company in providing the incoming power service needs. Place service need orders as early as possible in the planning phase.

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Steve Stouthamer

Executive Vice President, Project Planning

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Market Sentiment

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Consider alternative manufacturers or temporary solutions for power needs to abate lead time issues.

Consider alternative manufacturers

Understand the constraints of the local utility company

Continue to evaluate the major power equipment

Consider alternative manufacturers or temporary solutions for power needs to abate lead time issues.

Understand the constraints, if any, of the local utility company in providing the incoming power service needs. Place service need orders as early as possible in the planning phase.

Mitigation Recommendations

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Fall 2023 Construction Pricing Snapshot

Next: Local Forecasts Map

Materials and Commodities

Industry Indices

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13,498

Current Construction Cost Index

8,256

Building Cost Index

+0.09%

1-Month change

+0.2%

1-Month change

Construction Cost Index

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of October 2023

6,125

Current material price index

+0.3%

1-Month change

Materials Index

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of June 2023

Construction Cost Index

Spending

Building Cost Index

Materials Index

U.S. Employment

Architecture

Unemployment

Click an index or material to view details

Building Cost Index

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of August 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics All data as of September 2023

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

U.S. construction unemployment remains steady at 3.8 percent as of September 2023. The industry has added approximately 129,000 jobs since the start of the year. However, since May, job openings have started to decrease, moving from 416,000 to 350,000. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8 percent in September 2023. Nonfarm payroll (i.e., the number of workers in the U.S. except those in farming, private households, proprietors, non-profit employees and active military) employment rose by 336,000, nearly double the number Wall Street economists expected. Job gains occurred primarily in leisure and hospitality, government and healthcare.

U.S. Unmployment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Dodge Data & Analytics Construction spending data for August 2023 and Dodge Momentum data is from September 2023

Year-to-date through September, total construction starts—nonresidential, nonbuilding and residential—are down 6 percent. Nonresidential starts are down 7 percent and residential starts are down 17 percent. However, nonbuilding starts are up 25 percent. According to Chief Economist Richard Branch, “Risks continue to mount for the construction sector...a return to broad-based growth in construction starts is still some time away."

Construction Starts and Dodge Momentum Index

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of October 2023

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

Skilled Labor Index and Common Labor Index

In Q1 and Q2, the Skilled and Common labor indices had sharp growth, influencing the climb in the BCI and CCI indices we saw in the first half of 2023. However, both labor indices have flattened the past 4 months which could signal that the BCI and CCI will follow as efforts to slow inflation impact construction volume.

Skilled Labor and Common Labor Indices

Source: AIA, All data as of September 2023

This Architecture Billings Index (ABI) demonstrates whether or not architectural firms are billing for or signing new design contracts. The construction industry feels the impact of this index with a 9-to-12-month lag time.

The AIA Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 44.8 for the month is the lowest since December 2020—indicating a deterioration in business conditions at architecture firms in September. All regions of the country, as well as the commercial/industrial sectors, have seen a softening of the ABI. With a score of 44.0, multifamily residential is significantly dragging the overall ABI score, however, the institutional sector has upside potential at 50.2. In addition, the ABI reports, “the value of newly signed design contracts also slumped, indicating there is increasing reluctance among clients to sign contracts committing to new projects."

September ABI Report

Architecture Billings Index

Fuels and Natural Gas

Structural Steel Inputs

Concrete and Cement

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Asphalt

Lumber and Wood

Piping

Metals

Fuels and Natural Gas

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration All data as of October 2023

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index, Drywall and Insulation data as of October 2023, Gypsum data as of September 2023

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Drywall

Gypsum

Insulation

Source: Steel Benchmarker All data as of October 2023

Structural Steel Inputs

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index PG 58 data as of October 2023 WPU058102 data as of September 2023

Asphalt

Historically, as we shift into the cooler fall season, we expect fuel pricing to decline. However, with increased oil prices and supply cuts from Saudi Arabia, fuel prices have been higher in recent months. As the U.S. increases production, we anticipate pricing to stabilize and even mildly recede in the months ahead.

$613.08

Current price ($/ton)

+1.0%

Change from previous quarter

256.58

Current index

-1.6%

Change from previous quarter

Asphalt pricing, which often follows fuel trends, has remained stable for the past quarter from an index perspective. Local, actual costs may deviate based on project demands.

Structural steel pricing continues to flatten and trend downward. Wide flange remains flat, while hollow shapes and plates are down slightly (1-2 percent).

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of September 2023

Concrete and Cement

Cement and concrete markets remain stable with improvement in availability compared to the last couple of years. However, there are still some occasional, local challenges with supply in markets with mega projects. We recommend close coordination with ready-mix providers.

PVC: The steady decline of domestic resin prices since July is resulting in lower PVC pipe prices. Copper: Raw copper prices are stable to down, but lower demand for pipe is putting pressure on prices. Steel: The automotive strike is lowering demand, causing steel prices to fall.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index All data as of September 2023

Piping

Lumber pricing remains flat at pre-COVID levels. As housing starts have cooled further to an annualized rate of 1.28 million in August (11.3 percent below July), we expect lumber pricing to hold steady.

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Plywood and 2x4 S4S data as of October 2023 Lumber and Plywood data as of September 2023

Lumber and Wood

Nickel, zinc, copper and aluminum pricing declines have continued as demand has remained low. Despite the downward trend of commodity pricing, declines in pricing have halted due to supply concerns and forecasted deficits.

Source: Kitco All data as of October 2023

Metals

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

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355.9

Current index

+0.8%

Change from previous quarter

361.2

Current index

+0.8%

Change from previous quarter

387.7

Current index

+1.5%

Change from previous quarter

$9.44

Current price ($/sf)

-8.2%

Change from previous quarter

455.04

Current index

-1.0%

Change from previous quarter

$453.49

Current price ($/msf)

+1.2%

Change from previous quarter

$4.59

Current price ($/gallon)

+18.4%

Change from previous quarter

$3.80

Current price ($/gallon)

+5.5%

Change from previous quarter

$2.66

Current price ($/mmBTU)

+4.3%

Change from previous quarter

$1,485

Current price ($/net ton)

-4.4%

Change from previous quarter

$936

Current price ($/net ton)

12.8%

Change from previous quarter

$719

Current price ($/net ton)

-16.7%

Change from previous quarter

The ENR Materials Index cooled down over the past two months and is on pace for a 5 percent annual increase, contributing to the modest increases in the BCI and CCI indexes. Similar to the BCI and CCI, the Materials Index does not factor in the mechanical and electrical equipment cost impacts that have driven project costs higher than traditional measures of construction inflation.

Both of ENR’s leading indicators, Building Cost Index (BCI) and Construction Cost Index (CCI) settled down in September and October, bringing the annualized forecast for 2023 back to the 3-4 percent range we anticipated at the onset of the year. However, neither index reflects the continued dynamics of the mechanical and electrical supply chains, which are driving project estimates to reflect higher escalation outcomes and take a cautious approach in escalation forecasting.

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

Availability and pricing of drywall continue to be stable. However, a few major manufacturers announced increases in October, pointing towards a diminishing supply of FGD gypsum (a byproduct of burning coal).

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Natural Gas

Unleaded Gasoline

Diesel Fuel

Precast Concrete

Prestressed Concrete

Block and Brick

Hot-Rolled Band

Cold-Rolled Coil

Standard Plate

PG 58

WPU058102

162.86

Current index

-6.1%

Change from previous quarter

338.9

Current index

-3.2%

Change from previous quarter

196.61

Current index

-1.5%

Change from previous quarter

PVC

Copper

Carbon Steel

Plywood

2x4 S4S

Lumber and Plywood

258

Current index

-2.2%

Change from previous quarter

$925.01

Current price ($/msf)

+1.1%

Change from previous quarter

$1,040.66

Current price ($/msf)

+0.1%

Change from previous quarter

Aluminum

Zinc

Copper

$3.63

Current price ($/lb)

-8.0%

Change from previous quarter

$1.12

Current price ($/lb)

-4.1%

Change from previous quarter

$1.00

Current price ($/lb)

-0.5%

Change from previous quarter

Nickel

$8.19

Current price ($/lb)

-18.1%

Change from previous quarter

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+2.0%

6-Month change

+2.5%

1-Year change

+17.0%

3-Year change

+3.2%

6-Month change

+3.7%

1-Year change

+30.1%

3-Year change

+4.3%

6-Month change

+3.9%

1-Year change

+67.8%

3-Year change

Market Sentiment

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Data as of August 2023

Data as of July 2023

Data as of June 2023

Data as of July 2023

Data as of June 2023

Data as of July 2023

Data as of June 2023

Data as of July 2023

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of October 2023

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of September 2023

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

Skilled Labor Index and Common Labor Index

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8 percent in September 2023. Nonfarm payroll (i.e., the number of workers in the U.S. except those in farming, private households, proprietors, non-profit employees and active military) employment rose by 336,000, nearly double the number Wall Street economists expected. Job gains occurred primarily in leisure and hospitality, government and healthcare.

U.S. Unemployment

Labor

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Forecasting Local 2023 Construction Costs

This map reflects local USA Building Project Planning Services team leaders’ opinions of market volume and capacity and is not based on published analytics or third-party forecasts.

Click the map pins to see forecast details for a specific city or region.

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Seattle

Portland

Orlando

Tampa

New Jersey

New York

Boston

Connecticut

Phoenix

Philadelphia

Washington D.C.

North Carolina/ Virginia

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Nashville

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Boston/New England

In Boston, subcontractor capacity pressures continue as large project backlogs move towards 2024, forcing subcontractors to be selective in bidding. Both MEP trade pricing and lead time increases are impacting projects. Interest rates continue to slow private, multi-unit development and office construction starts, but life sciences, healthcare and manufacturing projects move forward. Market indexes have now shown six straight months of increases.

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Matt Impastato, Vice President of Preconstruction, Boston.

Pressures continue as temperatures cool

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Next: Supply Chain

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Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Back to map

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Miami/ Ft. Lauderdale

Seattle

Portland

Orlando

Tampa

New Jersey

New York

Boston

Phoenix

Philadelphia

Washington D.C.

N. Carolina/ Virginia

Cincinnati

Connecticut

Atlanta

Nashville

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Atlanta, GA

Labor issues—specifically skilled labor in mechanical and electrical trades—continue in Atlanta. The closing of a long-time union electrical contractor, combined with the large number of heavy electrical component projects in the area, further strains labor availability, forcing local general contractors to look out of state for qualified electrical trade subcontractors and qualified electricians.

Labor issues continue

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dane Wooley, Preconstruction Director in Atlanta.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Cincinnati, OH

In Cincinnati, most material prices have stabilized as expected, with mechanical and electrical equipment being the exceptions. Large data centers, chip manufacturers and electrification projects are still causing steep escalation and availability issues. Additionally, construction labor cost continues to escalate above the traditional indices. Despite these pressures, the local construction market remains strong, with numerous public and private project starts in healthcare, multifamily residential, higher education, K-12 schools, private office space and heavy civil sectors.

Market positioned for a strong 2024 despite pricing pressures

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Smoker, Vice President of Preconstruction in Cincinnati.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Dallas, TX

According to the Dallas Morning News, North Texas added 19,700 construction jobs, topping the nation in growth. Despite these additions, the labor shortage remains a considerable problem as subcontractors struggle to meet demands. One market sector driving this demand is higher education. On college campuses across North Texas, over $1 billion in construction projects are underway and more are in the planning stages.

Construction employment tops the nation

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Washington, D.C.

As the D.C. Metro market continues to slow down in certain sectors, such as commercial office, multifamily and healthcare, there is a shift in focus to fill the backlog for higher education and K-12 markets, as they have more opportunity for project starts in 2024 and 2025. In the commercial office sector, some developers are exploring office-to-multifamily conversions to make use of underutilized spaces in distressed properties. Supply chain strains for electrical gear, large generators and HVAC equipment remain due to the construction of data centers and battery manufacturing plants. We continue to advise Owners to purchase these items early to maintain project schedules as we anticipate extended lead times and higher-than-normal escalation rates for the foreseeable future.

Focus shifts to sectors less impacted by higher costs and interest rates

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Strawbridge, Preconstruction Director in Washington, D.C.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Houston, TX

With rising interest rates and looming recession concerns, the overall construction market in Houston has decreased from past years. This reduction is most evident in the private sector as financing is more challenging to secure, and vacancy rates are approaching an all-time high. In the meantime, the public sector remains active with projects, such as Project 11, a $1 billion project at the Houston Ship Channel complex, and Wharf 6 at the Bayport Container Terminal. The K-12 market continues to see stability and growth as several school districts call for bond elections, such as the proposed $840.6 million for Katy ISD, $1.8 billion for Aldine ISD and $1.26 billion for Fort Bend ISD.

Weathering economic uncertainty

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Los Angeles, CA

In Los Angeles, signs of slowing have manifested in the commercial building sector, with little to no office starts and subdued activity in retail and hotels. The institutional, multifamily and aviation sectors are proving more resilient and resistant to economic slowdown. An increasing trend of adaptive reuse and renovation projects and the integration of smart building technologies and automation highlight the need for adaptability in the region. A more stable supply chain is a welcome sight, with only a handful of manufactured components still proving problematic. The market continues to face challenges related to a skilled labor shortage, emphasizing the need for workforce development initiatives to attract and retain talent.

During signs of slowing, adaptability is fundamental

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Darrell Torres, Senior Preconstruction Director in Los Angeles.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Despite material costs leveling off in South Florida, the shortage of skilled and unskilled trade partners continues to drive project costs higher. Large projects are abundant in the area, and competition for labor is high. To combat the risk associated with bringing new and inexperienced employees onto jobsites, trade partners are pricing work with higher built-in contingencies and profit margins. We expect neither the population growth nor the demand for housing, healthcare and other service-related projects to let up any time soon.

Continued growth equals continued inflation

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Walt Chislak, Preconstruction Manager in South Florida.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Nashville, TN

Nashville’s strong economy continues to drive one of the fastest-growing populations in the country and the resultant expansion of the middle Tennessee construction market. Healthcare, office, higher education and State of Tennessee work remains strong. However, interest rates and economic uncertainty have caused developers to pause several projects. These pauses have created more backlog availability for the subcontractor community, and we are seeing increases in bid coverage and competitiveness.

Construction remains strong despite stall in developer work

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Adam Hicks, Vice President of Preconstruction in Nashville.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

North Carolina/Virginia

Large projects continue to drive the NC/VA market, as multiple significant healthcare projects are taking steps forward in planning. While many of these projects won’t start construction until 2024-2025, they fuel optimism about the regional pipeline, offsetting concerns as select private developer projects face delays. In the short term, we have seen pricing level off in certain trades. However, a higher rate of escalation continues in the MEP trades due to increased equipment pricing and limited regional labor availability. We anticipate the market stabilizing in late 2024 and returning to the more traditional escalation in the 3-5 percent range annualized.

Large projects drive long-term market optimism

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Will Senner, Vice President of Preconstruction in North Carolina and Virginia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New Jersey

"Demand in the Life Sciences market sector is expected to persist. Lincoln Equities Group and HIG Realty published plans for three new manufacturing buildings at the Princeton West Innovation Campus. Construction is underway on HELIX’s first phase, led by SJP Properties and New Brunswick Development Corp., which will house tenants including Rutgers University, Hackensack Meridian Health and RWJ Barnabas Health. Onyx Equities and Machine Investment Group recently acquired the former Merck & Co. campus in Kenilworth and plans to renovate and construct new offices and lab spaces for their rebranded site, the Northeast Science and Technology Center (NEST). Governor Murphy recently announced an additional $875 million in spending for construction projects in the public market sector, including $315 million for the NJ TRANSIT, $7.9 million for the Long Branch Station Pedestrian Tunnel, and more than $100 million to modernize garages for electric buses. Additionally, $110 million will go to the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT), and $450 million is allotted to New Jersey Schools Development Authority (NJSDA) for critical facilities needs throughout the state. Construction starts have leveled off in the industrial market sector as new buildings are not leasing as quickly as during the market’s peak in 2021. Of the 9,300,000-SF delivered this year, more than 7,000,000-SF remain available, with additional industrial space already under construction for completion by year’s end."

Life sciences and public remain busy while industrial construction starts wane

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Nick Culver, Vice President of Preconstruction in New Jersey.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New York, NY

In New York, while Healthcare Institutions continue providing new projects for Q4 2023 into Q1 2024, some existing projects have been paused to reassess programs and overall budgets but are anticipated to move forward by the end of the year. Other healthcare news is that Mount Sinai will shutter Beth Israel Medical Center by July 2024 citing financial difficulties with that campus. Life Sciences continues to be active with several major projects in the Metro Region through 2024. Cultural Institutions and other Public domain projects have recently come online, providing a fresh perspective on these sectors through Q2 2024. In other market sectors, the 5 day a week office schedule is no more, but tenant demand is growing leading the office market to begin to stabilize. With regards to the Transportation/Infrastructure market sectors, several major projects are on track to come out Q1 2024, such as the Governor's Island Climate Hub and the MTA Bus Garage, leading to a robust 2024.

Slight pause in healthcare while other markets move forward

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with John Tamborino, Vice President of Preconstruction in New York.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Orlando, FL

Trade partners across Central Florida have become increasingly more selective in the projects they pursue. Several large, established firms have closed their doors after poorly managed projects failed to make the returns necessary to keep them afloat. Firms positioned with solid cash reserves have withstood the interest rate increases and escalation challenges that have cost-leveraged other subcontractors more significantly.

Trade partners more selective

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Stickrod, Vice President of Preconstruction in Orlando.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Philadelphia, PA

Higher Education is leading the way in the Philadelphia and South Jersey markets, introducing multiple new projects throughout Q3. As the Healthcare market fluctuates, we continue to see a pace of new projects with many soliciting preconstruction services only so that they can better understand the viability of their projects. Life Sciences continues to push new projects and take advantage of talent in the market. Residential market demands have declined in the city, but waterfront development is making a resurgence with new park projects planned along the Delaware River. Significant MEP equipment lead times continue to cause difficulties, but we are seeing some settlement in material costs and escalations of the previous two years.

Positive signs in most markets

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with James Lane, Vice President of Preconstruction in Philadelphia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Phoenix, AZ

Arizona and the local Phoenix market continue to see new work. Mission-critical and housing continue at a fast pace in a strong market. The mission critical market continues to expand in the the valley with more clients like AWS, NTT, QTS and others exploring hyperscale projects. Semiconductor construction also continues but with guarded pauses based on the supply chain. A few of the potential suppliers for the 45 Billion dollar TWSC semiconductor plant have paused for several months in preconstruction to evaulate rising construction costs.

Hot market continues in the fall

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Feeney, Vice President of Preconstruction in Phoenix.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Portland, OR

The Portland metro market pipeline has returned to historically average volumes. Because firms are working through existing backlog, there is an uneasy calm—plenty of work today but uncertainty on the horizon. Prices are coming in at or below estimates for more projects, and competition is increasing. The opening of the Ritz Carlton this month and a push to get more employees back to work in the CBD will be a good temperature check on the health of the city's recovery from challenges of the last three years.

Back to school and back to "normal"

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Steve Clem, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in Portland.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

San Antonio, TX

As we head into Q4 and 2024, the San Antonio market continues to be steady in the public and healthcare sectors, while developer-led and commercial office projects will likely continue to lag until some form of interest rate relief occurs. As the Fed continues implementing strategies to reduce inflation to its 2 percent target, economic data points more towards a U.S. "soft landing" rather than a widely-anticipated recession. As Texas has been historically resilient during depressed market times, and with the population increasing by nearly 1,000 people per day, the construction future is optimistic. Continued construction, however, means sustained labor issues as securing sufficient qualified labor remains a challenge, especially in the electrical trades.

Sustaining construction backlog and optimism as labor constraints continue

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Chris Hillyer, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in San Antonio.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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San Francisco, CA

In San Francisco, the healthcare market is coming back strong as Providers scramble to provide services to an increasing elderly population and to bring their facilities up to new seismic mandates. Student housing in the Bay Area is in high demand as higher education entities take advantage of the recently signed Senate Bill 886, which brings $1.4 billion in public money to this sector. Construction challenges continue in the City due to ongoing social and economic issues, high-interest rates, hiring reductions by many large tech companies, and employees' continued reluctance to return to the office.

Cloudy with a chance of sunshine

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Seattle, WA

In Seattle, we continue to see new projects procured and construction starting in the K-12, Higher Education and Aviation (manufacturing and airport) markets. However, new starts of Commercial and Residential projects are few and far between. Several school districts are going out for Bond money in the upcoming November elections, which could significantly impact projects in that market sector. The Commercial Office market continues to battle high interest rates, limited buyers, and, most notably, Microsoft consolidating their local office space back to their campus and giving landlords notice of their intent, which will return a significant amount of office space to the market. Public transportation construction remains strong, with several large projects recently being awarded. Competition for work continues as companies previously focusing on privately financed developer work scramble to fill their backlog.

Market sectors differ significantly

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Alan Dunbar, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in Seattle.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Tampa, FL

As the Tampa construction market remains one of the strongest in the country in nearly every market sector, the capacity of qualified trade workers is strained, labor costs continue to increase and local material supplies remain challenged. Although trends of the summer are continuing into fall, experienced teams can mitigate these challenges by continually collaborating with trade partners and by advising engineers of alternate materials, innovative solutions, and early release packages, particularly on long-lead mechanical and electrical items, such as chillers, switchboards and switchgears.

Summer trends continue into fall

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Courtney, Preconstruction Manager in Tampa.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Connecticut

In Connecticut, the year 2023 continues to match the construction growth of 2022, as reported at less than one percent by the Connecticut State Department of Labor. All patterns from the summer are continuing into the fall—tight competition, slow private money, long lead times on certain components, and subcontractors are still protecting their margins. Despite these continued pressures, we anticipate a return to normal escalation over the next few months to a year.

Fall season not resulting in changing of patterns